Ukraine faces demographic crisis: death rate is “three times higher than birth rate”

This year, the death rate in Ukraine is three times higher than the birth rate, according to data from Kyiv, which underscores how much a demographic crisis exacerbated by Russia's large-scale invasion could damage the country's post-war reconstruction.

The population of Ukraine is still suffering from the military and civilian casualties caused by Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion, but the main demographic factor affecting the country is the mass migration of people fleeing the war.

Migration combined with women's reluctance to have children in times of conflict has created a perfect storm for Ukraine's future population. “All of these challenges are coming at the same time,” said Patrick Gerland, head of the United Nations' Population Estimates and Projections Division, News week.

In the first half of 2024, 87,655 children were born in Ukraine, a decrease of 9 percent compared to the same period last year, according to Ukrainian website Opendatabot, citing figures from the Ukrainian Ministry of Justice. Newsweek has asked the ministry for a comment.

During the same period, 250,972 deaths were registered, several thousand less than the 258,055 reported for the whole of 2023. “Currently, there are three deaths per newborn citizen,” the report said after translating from Ukrainian.

It added that while more people died in the COVID-19-hit year of 2021 – 349,041 – the ratio of deaths to births in Ukraine continues to rise. Between 2018 and 2020, there were two deaths per birth in Ukraine and the report said the three-to-one ratio it has now reached is “one of the key indicators of a demographic crisis”.

Due to martial law in Ukraine, the publication of government statistics is restricted. Opendatabot's figures recorded no births in the partially occupied Luhansk region for the first six months of 2024, suggesting that only incomplete information was available.

However, Gerland said that birth rates in Ukraine, which had already been declining since the collapse of the Soviet Union, had risen even further as a result of the war.

“Millions of people are internally displaced and millions have left the country,” he said. “Many of these people who have left the country are women of childbearing age.” While birth rates are steadily declining in Ukraine and much of Europe, “the conflict has made the situation worse,” he added.

From a pre-war level of 43.5 million in 2021, Ukraine's population has shrunk to 37.9 million in 2024, with a large proportion of it living in the territories now occupied by Russia. Russian shelling across Ukraine has hit pregnant women and damaged maternity and neonatal wards, which can no longer provide adequate care.

“Even before the large-scale invasion, Ukraine was facing a demographic crisis due to low birth rates,” said Massimo Diana, the United Nations Population Fund's representative in Ukraine. News week. “When you consider the normal impact of war and the displacement of millions of people, many of whom have sought refuge abroad, it usually places an excessive burden on the family as a whole.”

The stress of war has further reduced birth rates, as it poses greater challenges for expectant mothers and increases the number of premature births. “Women are the hardest hit by conflict,” he said. “Ukraine is no exception, especially for women of childbearing age who are unable or unwilling to start families under the conditions of war.”

Diana also said that the birth rate, which has fallen to less than one child per woman, is an obstacle to Ukraine's reconstruction. He added that reconstruction will have significant social dimensions, such as the trauma suffered by returning troops and civilians.

“We tend to focus more on the hardware of physical reconstruction,” he said, referring to the facilities that need to be rebuilt after a war. “But reconstruction by whom and for whom?”

Diana described the demographic crisis in Ukraine as a “very big challenge” because, unlike rebuilding a damaged bridge, it requires political measures such as financial incentives and the re-engagement of the diaspora, which may take years to materialise.

Gerland said: “Hopefully the conflict will end sooner or later. But then we will be faced with the challenge of whether the people who left the country will return.”