Kamala Harris has momentum … but there is still a tough fight ahead

Will Kamala Harris win this election and become the first female president of the United States? The honest answer is that no one can predict the outcome. Despite all her momentum, it is still uncertain.

A real opportunity

The Democrats now have a real chance, but they should be careful not to get carried away. This is likely to be a very close race. Harris and Trump are practically tied in the seven swing states.

In most cases, poll results are within the margin of error. In other words, the outcome of the vote in a given state can go either way.

The two “i”s – inflation and immigration

Many U.S. voters are angry about inflation and worried about immigration, and they blame – rightly or wrongly – the Biden administration for exacerbating both situations.

A historic candidacy with two sides

Harris' historic candidacy as a mixed-race woman is a double-edged sword: it excites some voters but alienates others.

Harris' candidacy is inspiring for many young Americans and people of color. But in some ways, asking voters to elect a black woman – and a liberal Californian at that – as their next leader is a risk for Democrats.

It is safe to assume that Harris will not appeal to large sections of the white working class, many of whom have already turned away from the Democratic Party.

And how will Harris fare with other key voting groups, such as black men, Latinos and Latinos?

Biden had lost ground among some blacks, but most remained in his camp. Among Hispanics, his support had declined significantly due to inflation and immigration.

Challenges with black men…

Harris was unpopular with some black men because she was a tough prosecutor who put many African Americans in prison and because she is married to a white man.

However, Donald Trump may have helped Harris gain more support among black men with his racist comments calling her “stupid” and questioning whether she was black.

Trump's racially motivated attacks could backfire. It's one thing for a black man to doubt Harris. It's quite another for a white man to denigrate a sister.

… and Latinos

Latinos are the largest minority group in the United States, accounting for nearly 20 percent of potential voters. They are an important voting bloc in swing states such as Arizona and Nevada.

Latinos will no doubt look to Harris for concrete proposals on how the government could control the border and mitigate the impact of inflation on them.

Many Hispanics are blue-collar, low-income earners, and they have felt the impact of higher prices particularly hard. And like most Americans, they support a path to citizenship for the 11 million illegal immigrants in the U.S., but also want the border to be secure.

Immigration policy on the offensive

Harris has had a good strategy on immigration. That's crucial because it's a top issue for voters and Republicans are – wrongly – attacking her as a “border czar” and blaming her for the problems at the border.

In fact, Harris was given a limited, carefully defined role on immigration issues: to focus on creating long-term solutions to reduce immigration from Central America.

During the election campaign, Harris promised to strengthen border security by hiring additional patrol officers (rather than building a wall, which would be a waste of money).

Harris also emphasized that President Biden and Democrats in Congress supported a tough border security bill that enjoyed bipartisan support and was headed for passage … until Trump torpedoed it in the Senate so he could put immigration on the table as a campaign issue.

Telling the truth about immigrants

Harris and Walz should emphasize these two issues throughout their campaign. They should also point out that immigrants are not the main cause of crime.

In fact, the crime rate among immigrants is lower than among native-born Americans. The reason for this is obvious: the last thing an immigrant wants is trouble with the police that could lead to deportation.

A sensitive topic: inflation

One of Donald Trump's biggest swindles was convincing voters that he had done an excellent job of managing the U.S. economy during his tenure as U.S. president and that Biden's spending programs were the main cause of inflation.

Both claims are false. Nevertheless, voters give Democrats low marks on both of these issues, so Harris must address their concerns. Harris should also take centrist positions on these issues rather than accommodating progressives.

Harris has recently put forward several economic policy proposals that address the high cost of living. On a positive note, Harris has shown sensitivity to voters' concerns.

Some ideas are convincing, others less so

Some of their ideas are compelling, such as Harris' proposal to provide a $6,000 payment to families having their first child. The price of this initiative may be high, but it is a very sensible measure.

However, some of the proposals are questionable. Harris attacked grocery chains for price gouging and suggested setting maximum prices for food. In fact, the grocery industry is a high-turnover, low-margin business.

Does Harris want to cap prices at grocery chains or attack food producers? That is unclear. Either way, proposals like this will provide ammunition for the Republican attack machine.

With his usual mix of subtlety and accuracy (irony aside), Trump was quick to label Harris' economic proposals “communist.” That's an absurd claim, of course, but Harris should drop some of her ideas, not least because they are either difficult, if not impossible, to administer or implement legally.

Your best asset?

One is increasingly tempted to believe that the self-destructive tendencies that Donald Trump regularly displays are one of Kamala Harris's strongest advantages.

Trump is a doomsayer, conjuring up a dystopian image of an America plagued by rising crime, violent immigrants and a faltering economy – and one that exists only in his head.

One last piece of good news for the Democrats: Trump spends more time on the golf course than on the campaign trail.