Iran: Retaliation for Haniyeh murder could take some time

Yahya Sinwar, the alleged architect of the deadly October 7 attack on Israel and surprise appointment as the new leader of Hamas, which is classified as a terrorist group by the US and EU, is known for his close ties to Iran.

His appointment as head of the Palestinian group's political bureau on August 6 followed the assassination of his predecessor, Ismail Haniyeh, on July 31 in Tehran. Iran and Hamas blame Israel for the assassination.

After the death of Haniya, who had close ties to Iranian politicians, his successors were primarily Khaled Meshaal, a former head of Hamas's political bureau, and Khalil al-Hayya, a prominent figure within the bureau with close ties to Haniya.

The appointment of Sinwar, who has been Hamas chief in the Gaza Strip since 2017, came as a big surprise, according to analysts, as many had not taken the Iran factor into account.

“None of us experts on Palestinian affairs – especially not here in Israel – would have considered Sinwar as the person who could replace Haniyeh,” says Yohanan Tzoreff, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv who specializes in Israeli-Palestinian relations.

“One [major] Reason why Sinwar the [new] leader is Iran,” he added.

Sinwar was arrested after two days of Considerations in Qatar by the Shura Council – an advisory body that elects the group's political bureau and has members in Gaza, the West Bank, Israeli prisons and the Palestinian diaspora.

Tzoreff said, Meshaals criticism During the Arab Spring in 2011, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad – a close ally of Tehran – made him an extremely unpopular figure in the Iranian leadership.

Tzoreff argued that Mashaal’s return to power could jeopardize the Palestinian group’s relations with the Islamic Republic and “[the Iranians] may have stopped giving Hamas everything it needs [to fight Israeli forces].”

But Sinwar is reportedly stuck in Gaza, where he has been hiding since the war with Israel began in October 2023. Due to restricted freedom of movement and limited ability to communicate with the outside world, Sinwar's options for action are very limited.

“I don't expect him or Hamas to get any closer to Iran. At this point, the relationship will probably stay the same,” said Joost Hiltermann, Middle East and North Africa program director at the Belgium-based International Crisis Group.

Shaped by Israeli prisons

Sinwar, 61, known as Abu Ibrahim to his followers, was born in the Khan Younis refugee camp in Gaza. Like Haniyeh's, his parents fled the coastal city of Ashkelon during the 1948 Arab-Israeli war that led to the creation of the State of Israel – or what Palestinians call the “Nakba” (catastrophe).

Sinwar joined Hamas shortly after its founding in 1987 and founded its feared internal security organization, Al-Majd, whose main task was to track down Israeli spies within the group. He gained a reputation as a violent man and was nicknamed the “Butcher of Khan Yunis.”

Sinwar was captured by Israeli forces and sentenced to multiple life sentences for a range of crimes, including the killing of two Israeli soldiers, and spent more than two decades in prison.

“He is a guy who was hardened in Israeli prisons, like many long-time Palestinian ex-prisoners,” Hiltermann said.

He said Sinwar learned Hebrew in prison and that this helped him understand the mindset of Israeli leaders.

“Sinwar is really tough. He is ruthless. He is a leader who resembles any Israeli leader,” Hiltermann said.

During his imprisonment, Sinwar organized strikes to improve working conditions and became a leader of the imprisoned Palestinians.

His experiences in prison had prepared him “very well for the leadership of Hamas” and for planning the October 7 attack, said Hiltermann.

Nearly 1,200 people, mostly civilians, were killed in October when Hamas militants raided communities in southern Israel and took hostages into Gaza. The attack prompted Israel to launch a major offensive in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip that, according to Palestinian sources, killed more than 40,000 people.

Sinwar was released from prison in 2011 as part of an exchange in which more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners were released in exchange for an Israeli soldier held by Hamas. Shortly after his release, Sinwar accompanied Haniyeh on a trip to Tehran, where he met Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

On the same day, August 6, Sinwar was announced as Haniyeh's successor, Khamenei's report on X published A short video of this visit shows Sinwar meeting the Iranian leader in February 2012.

Message from Hamas

Traditionally, the head of Hamas's political bureau is stationed abroad so he can travel and maintain contact with regional allies such as Iran and the militant Islamic group Hezbollah in Lebanon.

But Sinwar, who once served as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken joked is “buried ten stories underground” in Gaza and cannot leave the enclave because of the war.

Tzoreff said that by appointing a Gaza-based leader, Hamas was sending “a very strong message” to both Israel and the Arab states that “Hamas' resistance has not collapsed.”

“The most important message is that no one can drive them out of the area,” he added.

Sinwar himself is probably not keen on leaving Gaza because his legitimacy rests on his presence in the enclave.

“If Sinwar left Gaza, the Palestinians would say he was abandoning them, like a captain abandoning his ship,” Hiltermann said.

Sinwar has been in Israel's sights since the beginning of the war. Army spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari Description After the attack in October he was considered a “dead man”.

Killing Sinwar remains a priority for the Israeli army.

First Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi praised on August 7 that his troops would attack Sinwar and force Hamas to “replace the head of the Politburo again.”