Iran says it will not take “hasty action” against Israel over the assassination of Hamas political leader

CNN
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Iran's announced retaliation against Israel for the killing of Hamas politician Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran will take some time, according to a spokesman for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

“Time is on our side and the wait for this answer may be prolonged,” Ali Mohammad Naeini was quoted as saying by state media on Tuesday.

The Middle East has been on high alert since Haniyeh's assassination in Tehran last month, a day after Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr was killed in an airstrike in Beirut.

Israel claimed responsibility for Shukr's killing, but neither confirmed nor denied its role in Haniyeh's death.

Iran and its allies in the region – Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza – blamed Israel for both killings and threatened retaliation, leading to weeks of diplomatic maneuvering to prevent the outbreak of a full-scale regional war.

But the IRGC spokesman's comments three weeks after the two killings may indicate a cooling of Iran's earlier, more belligerent rhetoric.

Naeini said Iran's response could be different from previous operations against Israel, adding that Tehran would not take “hasty measures”.

“Currently, the Zionists have to live in instability and Iran's response may not be a repeat of previous operations,” he said. “The response scenarios are not the same. Our commanders have the experience and art to effectively punish the enemy and will not take hasty measures.”

In April, Iran fired around 300 missiles at Israel – its first ever direct attack on the country. It had previously blamed Israel for an attack on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus, Syria, in which Mohammed Reza Zahedi, a senior IRGC commander, was killed.

Naeini added: “The Zionist regime (Israel) has accepted defeat, even American politicians have admitted this, and so far it has not achieved any of its goals.” He was referring to Israel's war in the Gaza Strip, which has been waged for more than ten months with the aim of defeating Hamas and releasing the hostages it kidnapped on October 7.

Following the double murder of Shukr and Haniyeh, diplomatic efforts to reach a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas intensified as Arab and Western politicians sought to avoid a full-scale war.

There are indications that Iran may abandon its plans to attack Israel if a ceasefire is reached.

Iran's mission to the United Nations said on Tuesday that its retaliation against Israel for Haniya's killing “must be carefully considered to avoid possible negative repercussions that could undermine a possible ceasefire.”

“The timing, conditions and nature of the Iranian response will be carefully orchestrated to ensure it occurs at a moment of maximum surprise,” the mission said in a statement to CNN on Tuesday.

The statement came a day after an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said there was “no direct connection” between Iran's support for a ceasefire and its determination to avenge Haniyeh's assassination, according to state news agency ISNA.

In an interview in the Iranian capital Tehran, Mohsen Rezaee, the former commander-in-chief of the IRGC, told CNN on Tuesday that “Iranian actions will be very calculated,” adding that there must be a ceasefire in Gaza “soon.”

“The United States and Israel should not repeat their mistakes. If the United States had stopped Israel and (Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu in the first weeks of the Gaza war, the war would not have expanded. So the main culprits for the expansion of the war are the United States and Israel. The longer this war expands, the more damage the United States will suffer,” he said.

Regarding Iran's reaction to Israel, Razaee said: “We have studied the possible impact. And we will not allow Netanyahu, who is sinking in the quagmire, to save himself. Iran's actions will be very calculated.”

Dina Esfandiary, a Middle East adviser at the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank, said Tuesday's IRGC statement was unlikely to be a sign that Iran was abandoning its plans to attack Israel, but rather indicated a decision to postpone it.

“Iran is currently in a dilemma,” she said, adding that the recently elected government of Masoud Pezeshkian, which is considered moderate in the country, does not want to appear weak at home by failing to respond to Israel.

She added, however, that the government currently lacks the bandwidth to “provoke a spiral of escalation now” as it wants to focus on domestic priorities and bring about de-escalation on the foreign policy front.

That approach could change depending on the outcome of ceasefire talks in Gaza, which Iran does not want to disrupt, she said. “It also means that there is much more at stake in the negotiations. So if they fail, the Iranians have an even greater incentive to launch an attack.”

After talks resumed last week in Qatar's capital Doha, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday that Israel had accepted a proposal to bridge the gaps in the ceasefire talks and “the next important step is for Hamas to say yes to the same terms” before further negotiations begin this week.

Some officials have suggested Tehran is hesitant, fearing its response could spark a wider war. One diplomat said he believed Hezbollah and Iran had “trapped themselves” with their vows of retaliation.