Harris, the gender gap, inflation and foreign wars: August 17-20, 2024 Economist/YouGov poll

This week's Economist/YouGov poll looks at the presidential election, the candidates' qualities as president, the qualifications of the running mates for president, the Democratic National Convention, inflation, and the wars in Ukraine and Gaza.

The 2024 election

• Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 3 percentage points among registered voters in the poll, most of which was conducted before the Democratic National Convention and on the first day of the convention – before her acceptance speech on Thursday.
• Harris has consistently had a small lead in recent weeks

• 95% of Harris and Trump supporters say their decision is final: they will definitely vote for their preferred candidate.
• Harris' lead among registered female voters is 13 percentage points: 51% to 38%
• Trump has a 7 percentage point lead among registered male voters

• Seventy-one percent of Democrats and 61 percent of Republicans say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for president this year – a reversal of Republican enthusiasm from when Joe Biden was the Democratic nominee.

Characteristics of a presidential candidate

• More Americans are concerned about Trump's ability to handle international crises and his temperament than about Harris's corresponding qualities.

• Concerns about Biden's age and perceived health, which increased after the June presidential debate, helped push Biden out of the presidential race, and 60% now say age and health have a serious impact on his ability to fulfill the office
• Thirty-five percent say Trump's age and health would severely affect his ability to perform his duties as president if elected; only 8 percent say this about Harris.

Qualifications of the Vice Presidents

• Americans are slightly more likely to say Minnesota Governor Tim Walz is a good candidate to run for president if the need arises than they are to say Trump's running mate, Senator JD Vance.
• Democrats and Republicans overwhelmingly believe that their party's candidate is qualified, but the other party's candidate is not.

• Opinions about Walz are mixed, with about as many people having a very or rather positive opinion of him as having a negative one.
• There are more negative than positive voices about Vance
• Americans' opinions on the vice presidential candidates are similar to those on the presidential candidates: Americans are divided about Harris, while they are more negative than positive about Trump.

The Democratic National Convention

• More Americans say the Democratic Party is very or somewhat united than the Republican Party
• 80% of Democrats believe their party is united, 11 percentage points more than the share of Republicans who believe their party

• Former President Barack Obama and former First Lady Michelle Obama are the most popular political leaders speaking at the Democratic National Convention this week and whom we polled: A majority of Americans view both favorably, and among Democrats, 94% and 93%, respectively, view both favorably.

Inflation: Belief vs. Reality

• The survey examined how much Americans know about the inflation rate: 31% believe the inflation rate is between 2% and 4%, while most think it is at least 4%.
• 27% believe the inflation rate is at least 10%

• More Americans believe that the inflation rate is higher now than it was six months ago than that it is lower now
• Also, more people believe that interest rates will be lower in six months than they are now than expect them to be lower.
• Inflation is by far the most important issue for Americans: 26% say inflation/prices is the most important issue for them, compared to 12% who say jobs and the economy.
• 36% of Americans believe the Republican Party has a more effective plan to reduce inflation, while 32% believe the Democratic Party does not.

The Ukraine-Russia War

• The vast majority of Americans continue to sympathize with Ukraine in its more than two-year-old struggle against the invading Russian army. Sixty-three percent sympathize more with Ukraine, three percent more with Russia, and 23 percent with neither country.
• The majority of Americans believe that both Biden and Harris have more sympathy for Ukraine, but Americans are more likely to say that Trump has more sympathy for Russia than for Ukraine
• Sixty-seven percent of Democrats say Trump is more sympathetic to Russia, 8 percent more sympathetic to Ukraine; among Republicans, the figures are 10 percent and 38 percent.

• Following Ukraine's recent offensive, Americans are more likely to think Ukraine is currently winning (22%) than to think Russia is winning (16%)—a change from the past six months, when Russia was generally viewed as superior.

Americans are divided on whether military aid to Ukraine should be increased (25%), reduced (28%), or kept the same (27%).

The war between Israel and Hamas

• Few Americans (18%) believe a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict next month is very or somewhat likely; 55% say it is not very likely or not at all likely.
• 58 percent of respondents believe that the current conflicts are fairly or very likely to lead to a major war in the Middle East, or that this has already happened. 45 percent think the same about a major war in Europe as a result of the war between Ukraine and Russia.
• Americans are twice as likely to feel more sympathy for the Israelis than for the Palestinians in the war (35% versus 17%), while 25% say they sympathize equally with both.
• More than 35% want to reduce military aid to Israel rather than increase it (20%), while 25% would leave it at the current level.

Some numbers in this report may differ by 1 due to rounding.

— Carl Bialik and Taylor Orth contributed to this article

Check out the Toplines And Crosstabs for the Economist/YouGov survey from 17 to 20 August 2024

methodology: The survey was conducted among 1,565 U.S. adults. Respondents were selected from YouGov's opt-in panel to represent U.S. adults. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race, education, voter turnout in the 2020 election and presidential election, base party affiliation, and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets are from the 2019 American Community Survey. Base party affiliation is the respondent's last response before November 1, 2022, and is weighted by the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democrat, 31% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 3%.

Image: Getty (Chip Somodevilla / Personnel)

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