New crime reporting system leaves gaps in PA data – DV Journal

In January 2021, the FBI began using the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) instead of the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) system for reporting crime statistics by police departments.

And although some large police departments (including Philadelphia's) have made the change, nearly a third of law enforcement agencies did not report data to NIBRS in 2022. That includes about 90 percent of departments in Pennsylvania.

But the Washington-based Council on Criminal Justice expects that about 80 percent of all Americans will be covered by the new system by the end of the year.

What is undisputed, however, is that crime reporting in the United States has been less reliable over the past three years.

Rafael Mangual, a fellow at the Manhattan Institute think tank, said the transition to NIBRS would be difficult for police departments.

“Under the UCR, police authorities were instructed to report the most serious crimes [in a single episode],” said Mangual. “Only the most serious crimes were actually reported to the FBI. So the numbers were always a little off.”

However, up to 10 crimes are reported per incident under the NIBRS.

“The advantage of the numbers was that you could record up to 10 violations for each incident,” Mangual said. “So the idea was that this would provide more thorough and reliable data, right?”

And this would provide a “clearer picture of what crime looks like.”

“I don't think the government was well prepared because the compliance burden is pretty high with any type of reporting requirement,” Mangual said. “Especially when you're transitioning to a completely new system. Many departments across the country just haven't made the transition.”

As a result, the data the FBI uses for its crime statistics – statistics often cited in the media to show that crime has gone up or down – are based on a smaller data set, Mangual said. “They had to draw pretty broad conclusions based on a much smaller number of departments and draw conclusions about what that means for the rest of the country.”

“The picture is just not as precise as I think we will get in five or 10 years,” Mangual said.

In Radnor, Police Chief Chris Flanagan said his department is almost ready to deploy NIBRS. It will purchase new software and train officers on how to use it.

“We're almost there,” he said. “This is a new challenge for local police.” Officers will take longer to write their reports, and a designated NIBRS-compliant person will review those reports.

However, Flanagan said that ministries would ultimately have to comply with NIBRS to receive federal grants.

Abington Police Chief Patrick Malloy said his department is also close to implementing NIBRS.

In the meantime, municipalities will continue to submit their UCR statistics to the State Police. In Abington, there were 1,279 serious felonies (Part 1) and simple assault and weapons offenses from August 1, 2021 to July 31, 2022; 1,649 from August 1, 2022 to July 1, 2023; and 1,546 from August 1, 2023 to July 31, 2024.

In Radnor, there were 1,005 serious felonies, assaults, and weapons offenses from August 1, 2021, to July 31, 2022, 1,297 from August 1, 2022, to July 31, 2023, and 1,045 from August 1, 2023, to July 31, 2024.

Mangual said there are other nuances to the crime numbers, including that more people are working from home and are less likely to be out and about, where they could be victims of crime. Also, more people are shopping online, he said.

Other problems include the difficulties police authorities face in recruiting and retaining officers.

During the presidential election campaign, former President Donald Trump's campaign criticized Vice President Kamala Harris' claims that crime was declining and said national crime data was incomplete.

“There is not less crime, there is just less crime data being reported,” said an email from the Trump campaign to the press. In fact, polls show that most Americans believe crime is increasing in their area.

Another measure of crime, the National Crime Victimization Survey, shows that crime is up compared to pre-COVID levels. That measure found a 43 percent increase in violent crimes, a 58 percent increase in rapes, an 89 percent increase in aggravated assaults and a 56 percent increase in robberies between 2020 and 2022, the most recent information.

According to the Trump campaign, more Americans were victims of violent crime in 2022 than in any other year since 2012.

Mangual said the new NIBRS system will become more accurate over time as more departments enter their data.

“Then the picture becomes clearer,” he said.

“Congress could take steps to encourage transition by making the award of federal funds contingent on compliance,” he added. Flanagan believes this is already in the works. “The difference between the FBI's records and the National Crime Victimization Survey shows that there has always been a gap.”

This is because not all crimes are reported to the police.

“If you're on your way to work and someone snatches the phone from your hand and disappears into the crowd, many people will just put it down and move on with their day if you're in a rush,” Mangual said.

Please follow DVJournal on social media: X@DVJournal or Facebook.com/DelawareValleyJournal