This is how the battle for the last Formula 1 places for 2025 is developing

Following Alpine's announcement that it will promote Jack Doohan to Formula 1 in 2025, there will only be three cockpits available on the starting grid next year.

But in reality, drivers still trying to secure their future don't have many options available, as in all likelihood only one position is completely vacant.

While Mercedes, RB and Sauber/Audi have yet to officially confirm their lineups, the first two teams are already pretty sure what they plan to do.

At Mercedes, it is now considered almost certain that Andrea Kimi Antonelli will be chosen and will start alongside George Russell as Lewis Hamilton's successor.

An announcement could be made as early as next weekend at the Italian Grand Prix – where the young Italian is also expected to take part in the first free practice session.

The situation is a little more uncertain for Red Bull and RB, but here too it is more likely that three will become two, rather than leaving the door open for an outsider.

With Red Bull motorsport advisor Helmut Marko hinting before the Dutch GP that Liam Lawson will get a seat in one of the team's two teams next year, this means that either Sergio Perez (Red Bull) or Daniel Ricciardo (RB) will likely have to make way.

Liam Lawson, Reserve Driver, Visa Cash App RB F1 Team, with Helmut Marko, Advisor, Red Bull Racing, Peter Bayer, CEO, RB F1 Team

Photo by: Andrew Ferraro / Motorsport Images

After mixed results at the start of the season, the future of Perez and Ricciardo was in doubt in the second half of the season. However, at the start of the summer break it was decided that both would stay with the team for the time being.

Red Bull wants to see improvement from both drivers if they want to stay next year – and that is something they are both well aware of.

Earlier this weekend at the Dutch GP, Ricciardo said he had no doubts that Lawson deserves a full-time seat in F1 – and his contract requires Red Bull to give it to him for 2025 if he is not to become a free agent.

Ricciardo said: “I still know that performance is my best friend. If I do what I can and what I am capable of, I think I am in a very good position to obviously stay somewhere in the family next year.”

“Speaking of Liam, I saw him drive the car last year and I thought he did a great job. I think he deserves a place on the grid.

“So in a way I'm happy for him and if he's guaranteed a place next year then I'm happy because he's a deserving driver.”

From the outside, it seems obvious that Red Bull will choose its two best candidates from the three. However, another scenario could also occur: that Lawson is loaned out and all three candidates drive in Formula 1 next year.

Daniel Ricciardo, Visa Cash App RB F1 Team

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

This was something that Red Bull team boss Christian Horner was keen to hint at as a possibility during the Lawson talks. Speaking to Sky Sports about Marko's comments suggesting that Lawson would definitely get a seat in 2025, Horner said: “I asked him [Marko]quite clearly, he said he will drive in Formula 1 next year. We could rent him out. Nothing is set in stone.

“If we do not exercise the option for Liam, he will be a free driver for 2025. There are therefore certain periods in the driver contracts in which this applies.”

The only possibility for a loan deal is the Sauber/Audi team, which is reviewing its options after Carlos Sainz decided to turn down an offer and move to Williams instead.

Autosport has learned that Sauber's former bosses expressed interest in loaning Lawson for 2025 earlier this year, before the deal stalled amid management turmoil that led to the departure of bosses Andrea Seidl and Oliver Hoffmann.

While those talks fizzled out, it's not hard to imagine that bringing in Red Bull's sporting director Jonathan Wheatley as Sauber's new team boss would be one way to get the talks going again – especially as he is very familiar with Lawson's strengths.

Much will, however, depend on what new COO Mattia Binotto thinks about whether he will aim for a young driver like Lawson as Nico Hülkenberg's teammate next year or opt for a more experienced driver.

If Sauber opts for the latter, the most obvious choice is incumbent Valtteri Bottas, who is in ongoing talks with Binotto over a new contract.

Valtteri Bottas, F1 Team KICK Sauber C44

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

Nothing is set in stone yet, but the Finn believes that the talks are positive in some respects, as he did not expect a similar mood from the previous management.

“For the last six months or so, I felt like I wasn’t the top priority,” Bottas said in Zandvoort.

“Of course there was a new addition before me and of course the team and the management [were] explored all options, sometimes with very little communication. But now it feels a little different.

“There was a clear restart and now there is a clear structure at the top as to who does what. I think that is positive for the future.”

“Mattia comes from a team that was super successful. He knows what a good team really needs, so I think that's good for the future of this team.”

He added: “Of course they make the decision in the end, but they are undoubtedly looking at all the options, as they should. But I would imagine I should be in a strong position. But of course it is up to Mattia and Audi.”

All eyes are currently on Hinwil, which appears to play a central role in the next step in the F1 driver market.