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“Something will happen in 2024… I don’t know what”

Democratic Party pollsters warn they could be in trouble because their results in the last election were less reliable than usual, as former President Donald Trump's popularity is difficult to measure in polls.

President Joe Biden beat Trump in 2020 “more narrowly than many polls suggested,” according to one Politico Report.

In addition, polls had suggested that the Democrats would expand their majority in the House of Representatives, but instead it has shrunk, the report said.

These revelations reportedly prompted five of the Democratic Party's leading polling firms, which normally compete with each other, to work together and manipulate their less reliable polls.

While Vice President Kamala Harris appears to have caught up with Trump in the polls, Democratic pollsters are still asking, “How real is her surge?” and warning that even if their polls are correct, Trump still has many advantages. Politico reported.

“It's still a very tough race and that seems to be consistent with everything we know,” Margie Omero, a partner at Democratic polling firm GBAO Strategies, told the news agency.

For example, a recent Navigator Research poll found that Trump and Harris are “essentially tied” in swing states, with certain candidate characteristics that voters generally prefer – such as the candidate being fit for office or being a strong leader – favoring Trump.

Another clear warning sign for Democrats is the likelihood of polling error, given that Trump's appeal is very difficult to gauge through polls, with polls underestimating the 45th president in both 2016 and 2020. Politico reported.

“I've spent a lot of time and analysis trying to figure out these problems. And I feel much more informed about these problems now,” said Nick Gourevitch, a partner at Global Strategy Group. “I don't think there's a pollster in America who can sit here and say they're 100 percent sure they've solved any polling problems. I think that would be silly.”

Notably, for example, Democratic pollsters in Wisconsin conducted a months-long experiment—not to predict an election outcome, but to reach voters in different ways than usual and see if they differed from voters captured by traditional polling methods.

As a result, pollsters found that traditional polls capture voters who are more politically engaged. This is not usually a factor in low-turnout polls, but it can affect the reliability of polls in presidential elections because more lower-turnout voters participate in these elections.

As a result of these potential problems, “most elected and professional Democrats” have tried to “dampen their enthusiasm” at the Democratic National Convention (DNC). Politico reported.

While Democratic pollsters have been trying to address issues with the reliability of their polls since 2020, they warn that their polls could still underestimate Trump in the 2024 election year – but they could not say exactly what the reasons might be.

“Every year there have been different surprises,” said John Anzalone, the lead pollster for Biden's 2020 campaign. “It's a difficult industry. Something is going to happen in 2024. You and I don't know right now what that will be.”

Alana Mastrangelo is a reporter at Breitbart News. You can follow her on Facebook and X at @ARmastrangeloand on Instagram.

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