Russian mercenaries more active in Africa since death of Wagner group leader – The Irish Times

Russian mercenaries have become increasingly active in Africa since the leader of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was killed in a plane explosion in mid-air under suspicious circumstances a year ago, new data shows.

According to a study by Armed Conflict Locations and Event Data (Acled), a US-based conflict monitoring group, Russian troops were involved in more violence in Africa in the nine months to June 2024 than in any other period since records began of their activities in 2018.

Data from Acled shows that the last three months of 2023 in Africa were a particularly violent time for Wagner fighters, who took part in nearly 180 events related to political violence, compared to about 90 in the previous three months.

Prigozhin (63) was a longtime ally of President Vladimir Putin until he led the Wagner group in a short-lived rebellion against his government in June 2023 following clashes with Russian generals over the use of his troops in the war against Ukraine.

In the course of the power struggle between Prigozhin and Putin's generals, the former's troops eventually threatened Russian territory and sent a military convoy into the country towards Moscow. However, Prigozhin gave in after a few days.

The paramilitary leader and several of his superior officers died on August 23, 2023, when the private plane they were traveling in inexplicably exploded in mid-flight and crashed in a field northwest of Moscow.

Ladd Serwat, Africa specialist at Acled, said in his recent report on Russian mercenaries in Africa that after Prigozhin's death, many people expected Moscow to close the Wagner group and force its fighters to leave or join the Russian army.

But Putin's approach to the group, renamed Africa Corp in some countries on the continent, is different, he said. While there have been changes in key leaders and management at the country level, what is actually happening varies from country to country.

“We have seen new contracts for fighters under a new paramilitary structure, in addition to the distribution of other contracts to smaller PMCs. [private military companies] in the region. Russia seems to want to avoid an organization accumulating too much power and posing a threat, as was the case with the Wagner Group under Prigozhin,” Serwat explained.

According to Acled, the Wagner Group's increased military activity in Africa over the past year is largely due to its support for Mali's military, which is fighting separatist Tuareg rebels in the north of the country.

Acled has also tracked political violence linked to the Wagner Group in seven countries: Libya, the Central African Republic, Chad, Mali, Mozambique, Sudan and Mauritania. Since Prigozhin's death, Russian private military companies have also deployed troops in Burkina Faso and Niger, Serwat said.

Another recent development is the degree to which the Russian government is claiming responsibility for the country's mercenary activities in Africa. During Prigozhin's time as head of the Wagner Group, Russia denied any involvement until shortly before his death.

However, Serwat said the newly named Afrika Korps has become “a much more direct extension of the Russian Defense Ministry, and Moscow has admitted to funding it. The Afrika Korps also appears to be more focused on security and military operations.”

As for the future of Russian private defense companies in Africa, Serwat believes they will expand their influence in the countries where they already have a foothold.

“I expect that in the next six months or next year we will see the Wagner Group/Afrika Corps training state forces in Niger and Burkina Faso, with the possibility of them then directly using violence,” he said.

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