New Mexican tends toward incumbent Democrats, although fear of crime increases

Justin Garcia Las Cruces Bulletin

According to a recent poll, incumbent Congressman Gabe Vasquez has a nine-point lead over his Republican challenger Yvette Herrell.

The Emerson College/The Hill poll surveyed about 1,000 New Mexico residents from across the state and found that 9 percent of respondents were undecided as of Aug. 23, setting the stage for intense campaigning in the final two months of the 2024 election season.

Many media outlets have called New Mexico's 2nd District one of the closest in the country as the two major parties battle for control of the House of Representatives. Republicans hold an eight-person majority in the House of Representatives heading into an election that both parties have described as one of the most consequential in recent history.

The Southern District of New Mexico will play a role in this story.

The same poll found that voters across the state of New Mexico prefer incumbent Democrat Martin Heinrich (40 percent) for re-election to the U.S. Senate over Republican challenger Nella Domenici (37 percent).

Similar data emerged for Democratic incumbents in the House of Representatives, Melanie Stansbury, who is about 12 percent ahead of her opponent, and Teresa Leger Fernández, who is about 9 percent ahead of her opponent.

Given these results, it should come as no surprise that respondents also had a largely positive opinion of Democrat Kamala Harris in the presidential election. The poll predicted that Harris would win in New Mexico if the election were held tomorrow.

According to the poll, 54 percent of respondents support Harris, while 46 percent support Donald Trump.

The poll also showed that support for Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham in New Mexico has dropped from last year. Public Policy Polling reported that Lujan Grisham has an approval rating of 47 percent in 2023.

But this year's poll by Emerson College and The Hill found that Lujan Grisham's approval ratings have fallen to around 41 percent, with 48 percent disapproving and around 11 percent either neutral or having no opinion.

Lujan Grisham took a tougher stance on crime and public safety this year, drawing criticism from progressive politicians and civil rights organizations in her state as well as members of her own party.

On the topic of crime, the survey also asked respondents whether they felt safer compared to five years ago. About 53 percent said they felt less safe, 14 percent said they felt safer and 32 percent said they felt no different.

However, crime was not the most important issue for respondents. The economy was by far the most important issue, followed by crime, immigration, education and health care.