Be careful to protect your assets, Libya's problems affect the US – TradingView News

To gain an advantage, here's what you need to know today.

Protect your assets

Click here to view an enlarged chart of the US Dollar Index (USDX, DX, DXY).

Please note the following:

• Investors need to pay attention to the dollar to protect their wealth if their assets are invested in dollars or tied to the dollar.
• The chart is a weekly chart to give you a longer term perspective.
• The chart shows that the dollar is at the upper edge of the support zone.
• The chart shows that the dollar has formed a double top. This is a negative pattern.
• The RSI in the chart shows that the dollar is oversold, which could lead to a recovery in the short term.
• The chart shows that there is significant room for the dollar to decline if the support zone is broken.
• The United States owes its economic prosperity and its status as the only superpower to a large extent to the dollar as the world's reserve currency.
  • The majority of world trade is conducted in dollars.
• China is determined to replace the United States as the world's sole superpower. The Chinese and Russian governments are clear that the key to achieving their goals is to weaken the dollar and replace it as the reserve currency.
  • China and Russia have accelerated their attacks on the US dollar. They are supported in this by the BRICS countries. BRICS is a bloc consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Six more countries have joined the BRICS bloc. The new countries are Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Argentina, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
• All investors should take steps to protect their wealth. Investors should consider emerging markets, other developed markets, currencies where appropriate, gold, commodities and commodity producers, including metal producers, as illustrated in the Arora Report's ZYX Allocation and ZYX Emerging Model Portfolios.
• The world is interconnected. Oil prices are up about 3% this morning due to the problems in Libya. Libya is a divided country with two rival governments – the government in Tripoli and the government in Benghazi. The government in Benghazi has stopped all crude oil exports. This is in response to the government in Tripoli replacing the leadership of the central bank.
  • Many media headlines falsely claim that oil prices are rising because Israel launched a preemptive strike on Lebanon on Sunday and Hezbollah responded. The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has no direct impact on oil prices unless Iran directly intervenes. However, so far Iran has not been directly involved.
  • The real reason for the rise in oil prices lies in Libya.
• Investors need to keep an eye on oil prices because one of the reasons for the fall in inflation is the lower price of oil. The Fed is planning to cut interest rates due to lower inflation. The stock market has been rising in the hope of a rate cut. If the oil price shoots up, inflation will rise, limiting the Fed's ability to cut interest rates. Such a scenario will negatively affect the stock market, which is trading at a very high price.
• The data on durable goods is mixed.
  • Orders for durable goods were at 9.9% compared to 4.0% in consensus.
  • New orders for durable goods (excluding transport) were -0.2% compared to 0.1% consensus.

The Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In early trading, money flows are neutral in Apple Inc AAPL, Alphabet Inc. Class C GOOG, Microsoft Corp MSFT, NVIDIA Corp NVDA.

In early trading, cash flows are negative in Amazon.com, Inc. Amazon, Meta Platforms Inc METAand and Tesla Inc TSL.

In early trading, money flows are mixed SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY And Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 QQQ.

Momo Crowd and Smart Money in Stocks

Investors can gain an advantage by knowing the money flows in SPY and QQQ. Investors can gain a greater advantage by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold and oil. The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust GLDThe most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust SLVThe most popular ETF for oil is US Oil ETF USO.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is approaching $64,000. The recent surge has reignited hopes that Bitcoin will hit a new high and then move to $100,000.

Protective tape and what to do now

It is important for investors to look forward and not in the rearview mirror.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long-term, existing positions. Depending on individual risk preference, consider a protective band of cash or Treasuries or short-term tactical trades, as well as short- to medium-term hedges and short-term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself while participating in the upside.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high protection band is for older or conservative people. The low protection band is for younger or aggressive people. If you do not hedge, the total amount of cash should be higher than above, but significantly lower than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very optimistic and would imply a full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very pessimistic and would imply a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

Remember that you cannot take advantage of new opportunities if you do not have enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for equity (non-ETF) positions; consider using wider stops for remaining quantities and also allow more slack for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are those that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 portfolio

The probability-based and inflation-adjusted risk-return trade-off does not currently support a long-dated strategic bond allocation.

Those who want to stick to the traditional allocation of 60% to stocks and 40% to bonds should focus only on high-quality bonds and bonds with a maturity of five years or less. Those who want to refine their investment should currently use bond ETFs as a tactical rather than a strategic position.

The Arora Report is known for its accurate predictions. The Arora Report has correctly predicted before anyone else the great rise in artificial intelligence, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus decline in 2020, the DJIA rising to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Click here to sign up free forever Generate Wealth Newsletter.

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