State elections in Saxony: CDU and AfD neck and neck

According to the first projections, the CDU can continue to provide the Prime Minister in Saxony. The AfD is just behind them.

This is what a winner looks like? Michael Kretschmer (CDU), current Prime Minister of Saxony Photo: Robert Michael/dpa

At 6 p.m. there was no frenetic cheering at the CDU's election party in the Dresden state parliament. But the applause of the guests at least sounded relieved. The conservatives are holding to around 32 percent of the first ZDF forecast for the election in Saxony. In the end, they could sell this as a triple success: First, they have maintained their level from 2019 (32.1 percent). Second, they will probably continue to provide the prime minister, as they have continuously since reunification. And third, the symbolic worst case scenario for Saxony may have been prevented: According to the first figures, the AfD is not the strongest party.

Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer could see his course confirmed. He rejected cooperation with the AfD at the state level. In terms of content, however, he has not only been targeting a clientele to the right of center since this election campaign. He has repeatedly called for an upper limit on the number of refugees he can accept. His solidarity with Ukraine is demonstratively less pronounced than that of the federal CDU; his criticism of the traffic light coalition in Berlin is usually even harsher than that of party leader Friedrich Merz. He does not exempt his own coalition partners at the state level – the SPD and especially the Greens – from the attacks. Kretschmer relied on a mood of protest during the election campaign as head of government and was somewhat successful in doing so.

However, it would be a victory with a strong aftertaste. Firstly, Kretschmer has not been able to defeat the AfD either. Compared to the 2019 election, it has been able to make up its mind again; it is at most just behind the CDU and will continue to expand its influence. There was corresponding cheering at the right-wing extremist election party. Secondly, forming a government will not be easy for the CDU in the coming weeks.

The first mathematically possible option, an alliance with the AfD, is effectively ruled out. Based on the first forecast, it was not yet entirely clear whether a coalition of the CDU and BSW alone would have a majority in the state parliament. Wagenknecht's party came in at just under 12 percent.

In terms of content, there would be overlaps with the Union, after all, in migration policy and other socio-political areas both parties are right-wing. In Ukraine policy, at least, Kretschmer and Wagenknecht are not worlds apart. From the perspective of the federal CDU, such a coalition would be difficult to sell, but officially they want to give the regional association a free hand. The major obstacle remains the question of how capable and willing Wagenknecht's party actually is to govern just a few months after its founding.

And a new edition of the Kenya coalition with the SPD and the Greens? Before the election, that was also an option. On an atmospheric level, however, the three parties would first have to overcome a number of hurdles after the poisoned election campaign. And on Sunday, based on the first figures, it was still unclear whether it would even be mathematically sufficient.

It was initially uncertain whether the Greens would be represented in the new state parliament. The first forecast puts them at around 5 percent. They have always been weak in the Free State; the 8.6 percent from last time was already a record result. The losses in this election have many causes: among them the negative trend at the federal level, the skepticism of many East Germans towards aid to Ukraine, the anti-Green statements of the Prime Minister in the Free State – but also his calls for tactical voting. Although Kretschmer made the right statements in terms of content, he also poached among progressive voters. The CDU also campaigned with them on the grounds that it must remain ahead of the AfD as the strongest force.

The revelation did less damage to the SPD than to the Greens. In the first forecast, it was at just under 8 percent, a similar level to 2019 (7.7 percent at the time) – although its re-election was considered uncertain beforehand. Not because the Saxony SPD had governed badly. But it too was battling stronger than ever against headwinds from Berlin. The Social Democrats also felt the bad reputation of the traffic light coalition during the election campaign. The announced stationing of new US missiles in Germany and the use of German weapons on Russian territory were an additional gift.

The fact that the election result was nevertheless fleeting could also be due to Social Affairs Minister Petra Köpping. The down-to-earth Saxon does not fit the populist enemy image of the aloof caste of politicians. The SPD could therefore end up being involved in forming a government in Dresden again.

Two other parties will certainly not play a role in coalition talks: the CDU has an incompatibility resolution with the Left. In any case, after the polls closed, it was unclear whether the party would sit in the state parliament again. A debacle for the ex-PDS, which had always achieved double-digit results in Saxony since reunification. The remaining Left clearly emerged as the loser from the split of the camp around Sahra Wagenknecht. The election was also disastrous for the FDP: although it had not been in parliament before, it now slipped even further to below 2 percent. Voter turnout was 74 percent – a new record for Saxony.