Ukraine is now facing the worst-case scenario on the “Road of Life”

“We're going to Vinnitsa first,” says the woman who is boarding the train that is evacuating her from Pokrovsk. “We have friends there, but we will find our own accommodation, which we will have to pay for,” she tells Ukrainian journalists. “When we heard the explosion in the night, we decided: the child has to get out of here.” Like thousands of other residents of Pokrovsk and the surrounding towns and villages, she and her family postponed the evacuation until the last minute. Now they have no other choice – the front line is less than ten kilometers from the city. Before the war, around 60,000 people lived in Pokrovsk. Now the city is becoming increasingly empty.

Recently, Russian President Volodymyr Zelensky admitted in a video address that the situation near Pokrovsk was “extremely difficult.” Russia has concentrated its largest forces there. On Friday, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported that 58 Russian attacks had been repelled near Pokrovsk during the day.

The US Institute for the Study of War (ISW) confirmed this week that Russian forces have had tactical successes in the area and “continue to make significant tactical advances southeast of Pokrovsk.” Russian soldiers have penetrated the towns of Selydove and Novohrodivka. Many people in the Pokrovsk area are wondering if the town will share the fate of Avdiivka and other captured strategic nodes.

Pokrovsk has strategic importance

Pokrovsk lies at the intersection of the most important railway supply routes. The residents of the frontline areas call it the “road of life” and this without a hint of irony. The city is a logistical hub. It forms the backbone of Russian defense and supply from Vuhledar to the north of the Donetsk region, Colonel Markus Reisner, an officer in the Austrian Federal Army and head of department at the Military Academy in Vienna, told DW.

The rapid advance of Russian troops in this area was possible after Avdiivka had fallen. The city in Donbass is located 25 kilometers east of Pokrovsk and was taken by Russian units in February with massive “flesh attacks.” The euphemistic term describes a tactic in which large numbers of simply equipped soldiers are supposed to literally overrun the enemy – and their deaths are consciously taken into account by the commanders.

Avdiivka was the fortress that was supposed to protect towns, railway lines and roads in western Ukraine. Pokrovsk has since taken over this function. But after the Russians broke through two lines of defense, they are now moving close to the last, albeit most heavily defended, line, said Colonel Markus Reisner.

Russia has an easy game

The current military situation around Pokrovsk is complex. This is also due to the fact that the Russian army does not need to take the city itself. Once they reach the outskirts, the Ukrainian supply routes will be an easy target for Russian artillery. This will make supplying the front line and nearby cities difficult, if not impossible, for Ukraine, according to Western analysts.

There is no doubt that the Russian armed forces will do everything to raze the city and its logistics to the ground, warned Gustav Gressel, a Berlin-based military expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), in an interview with DW. The worst possible scenario beyond the capture of Pokrovsk would be a complete Russian occupation of the Donetsk region.

Nevertheless, the Ukrainian armed forces will still be able to block their ground corridors even if Russian troops reach the Pokrovsk Line, Mykhailo Samus, director of international programs at the Kyiv Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, told DW.

Kursk and Donbass are two sides of the same coin

Many of the brigades that could reinforce defenses on difficult front lines in Ukraine are currently tied up in the Kursk operation on Russian territory. According to Kyiv, about 1,300 square kilometers of Russian territory and more than 100 localities have been brought under Ukrainian control. The Kursk offensive is part of a larger plan for Ukraine's victory, President Zelensky said at a press conference in Kyiv on August 27. He did not disclose details of this plan, but promised to present it in September.

If one of the goals of the Russian Kursk offensive is to force Russia to move a critical mass of troops from eastern Ukraine towards Kursk, then, according to Markus Reisner, this goal has not yet been achieved. “Unfortunately, the operation in Kursk has had no impact on the situation in Donbass.” The Kremlin has only moved some of the experienced troops that were previously deployed in Donbass to the Kursk region. According to the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, General Oleksandr Syrskyj, there are around 30,000 soldiers.

Gustav Gressel points out that the Kursk offensive has not yet reached its full potential. “Yes, the Kursk operation is a risky game that entails high military risks. But if you look at all of Ukraine's alternatives, they also entail high political risks,” he stresses – including the US elections in November, the debate about cutting German aid to Ukraine and timely arms deliveries.

Mykhailo Samus, on the other hand, remains calm. He shifts the focus away from the Kursk offensive and onto the bigger picture. It is necessary to form a southern flank in the area, and this will slow down the advance of the Russian troops. In addition, the further the Russian offensive progresses, the more the Kremlin will be forced to withdraw resources from Ukraine and move them to Kursk. “They are throwing all available forces at Pokrovsk in order to achieve a certain propaganda effect,” he predicts. “They want to take Pokrovsk and present it as a victory of the year – and then regroup and try to send reserves to the Kursk region.”

Adaptation from Ukrainian: Lena Crohmal

Author: Dmytro Kaniewski, Iryna Ukhina