Red Sox Monday Morning Brushback: No days off in the MLB playoff race

Just because today is a national holiday doesn't mean we're stopping the Monday Morning Brushback, folks.

Bad news, good news from the Red Sox after last week, I guess. The bad news is that they blew their best chance to make up ground in the Wild Card race. It's hard to defend a series in which they've lost three (well, technically two, because of the lockout, I suppose) of five games at home to a leaderless division opponent like the Toronto Blue Jays, and Saturday's game in Detroit could realistically have resulted in a win if silly defensive errors hadn't led directly to the second of the Tigers' two runs.

The good news is that despite the constant sense of dread and the overwhelming feeling that the 2024 Red Sox could soon take the lead, they are still only a handful of games away from a playoff spot. I know four and a half games is a sizable gap at this stage of the baseball schedule, but I haven't heard any talk of magic numbers or elimination numbers yet. There are still plenty of games to play.

And yet the Red Sox really need to play hard in this final stretch. I said it last week in the brushback and I'll say it again here: They really can't afford to lose any more games in September… and if they lose a series here or there, they better make up for it with sweeps. That's a tall order for any team, let alone a club that's been in such disarray over the past few months.

Check out the point Red Sox Stats made on Twitter (I won't call it that though):

And this post was written before they lost the final to the Motor City Kitties on Sunday, so now the hurdle is even greater.

It's not impossible in baseball. Stranger things have happened in the sport. But next week is the team's last chance to make up some ground in the playoff battle before a tough stretch against AL East opponents — with the sole exception of a weekend series at the Fens against, as things currently stand, their direct competition for the third and final wild card spot.

Let's make it count.

It's Monday morning brushback time, folks.

Brayan Bello’s big breakthrough

Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

By and large, 2024 was a year to forget for Brayan Bello. Between way too many walks and some absolute meltdowns, expectations were not met after the ink dried on the six-year, $55 million contract extension he signed in March, a “one step forward, one step back” deal.

Well, Bello's start on Wednesday against our opponents north of the border was certainly one of those trends in the right direction as part of his ongoing development. Eight scoreless innings with nine strikeouts, along with just two hits and one free pass allowed, how about a step forward?

Maybe it was the blue sleeves that did the trick for Brayan. Reminds me of Pedro in the 1999 ASG, as people rightly pointed out (I'm not just shamelessly promoting the podcast here; lots of people on the TL have made that reference. You all know who you are).

It was a great performance by a starter, just when the Red Sox needed him. Bello's heroics were enough to lower his ERA to 3.42 in the second half – a period in which some of the weaknesses of the first half resurfaced (he has RECEIVE not walking as many batters; I'm actually surprised his BB% is only in the 36th percentile, as I would have guessed it was even worse), but there have been some positive developments as well. As OTM's own Jake Roy (who is much smarter than me, especially when it comes to pitching) noted, Bello was able to command his changeup on Wednesday, an offering that — especially as a groundball pitcher — is crucial for him.

Bello still has a long way to go, but there's a good pitcher in there somewhere. That quality can be unlocked by more consistently displaying the control we saw on Wednesday. Limit the mistakes that come from missing spots and letting innings get out of hand, keep the changeups minimal, and learn from more experience: That's the recipe for a successful Brayan Bello going forward. I know it's hard to temper expectations for a guy who just signed an eight-figure contract, but it's easy to forget that Bello is only 25 and that development isn't always a straight line. He has a chance to build on this standout performance and gain some insights that won't make 2024 a completely wasted year on the pitch.

Or… it could completely implode again on Monday, I don't know. If that happens, you know which blogger to yell at.

Security EP

Photo by Paul Rutherford/Getty Images

I think Chris Martin is amazing. Seeing him show up just puts a smile on my face. I am so grateful for his efforts and performance. He brings so much joy not only to me but to fans all over the world. He has been at the peak of his powers for some time now and shows no signs of slowing down in 2024. [Editor’s note: We saw where this was going and reluctantly let it stay in.]

I also think the Red Sox's number 55 is a great pitcher.

The right-handed pitcher – not the man with the voice of an angel and the talent to hit a great tune (well, maybe our Chris Martin is a musical virtuoso (I just don't know, who knows) – has been fantastic since coming off the injured list on August 7th. Since then, he has allowed just one earned run on 11 hits and no walks in 10 innings in 11 games. The 12 strikeouts in that time certainly don't hurt either.

Martin's performance out of the bullpen was tremendous considering how turbulent Boston's arm arena has been since the Mid-Summer Classic. For a bullpen that has the honor of being the only unit in MLB with a second-half ERA starting with the number six (6) entering Sunday's game, Martin's stability was a beacon in the night. In this crazy world, it's true: I only want you, Chris.

Martin's ability to get hitters to strike out on throws outside the zone gives me a warm, fuzzy feeling. That leads to strikeouts and bad contact—it's simple math. He hasn't pitched enough innings to qualify for the Savant leaderboards, but if you were to extrapolate his stats this year so that his overall performance is quality, his 36.7% chase rate would qualify for the 98th percentile in all of baseball. That would be just ahead of the 36.1% chase rate posted so far by Cleveland closer Emmanuel Clase… you know, the guy who's being considered for the Cy Young Award this year.

My question regarding Martin's future development: Is there a possibility that Craig Breslow and management will decide to bring him back for another year?

The quality is still there, no question. His cutter still works well alongside his heater, he continues to limit hard contact, and he continues to strike guys out while keeping walks at bay. I guess the price for a 38-year-old reliever is the big sticking point here, and I'm not sure what a reasonable contract would be to retain his services, but it's an idea that Red Sox management should certainly consider, especially considering how the bullpen has been in flux of late.

For now, I'm just happy to see our guy cooking… and that I can continue to make Coldplay jokes on this website. My apologies to Bryan Joiner. [Editor’s follow-up note: apologies accepted.]

The pride of Milton rides again

Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

God bless Rich Hill, man. Who wouldn't want to chill for a few months during the MLB season, coach a little Little League basketball with their kid, get a call out of the blue from their hometown team at age 44, and then cook off against a division rival with some of their patented stuff? That's the American dream if you ask me, baby. Probably a more attainable American dream than buying a house today, right?!

Who cares if his fastball registered as… well, not a fastball?

It's a little bizarre (and probably a little unsettling, given the implications) that we – in the great year of 2024 – are relying on Rich Fucking Hill to take over some of those innings during a crucial stretch, but that's kind of why we love baseball, right? Funny stories like this? Sure, the bullpen has been a disaster for over a month, but in a cosmic sense, the return of Dick Mountain is funny. He's the Jamie Moyer of our generation, and I appreciate that!

It's even more fun when he actually throws well! Who can say how his slop will affect future appearances, but there are few better starts than two perfect appearances with four outs and three strikeouts. (Just ignore Sunday, please.) Milton Hive, get up!

Personally: I think the Sox should bring him back every season until his arm falls off. That would be a great commitment if you ask me. Maybe that's why I'm writing here and not working in the front office, I don't know.

Song of the week: “Real Love Baby” by Father John Misty

There's no particular reason for this, it's just a great song by Mr. Tillman. Hey, did you know that Father John Misty was the drummer for Fleet Fo? *dozens of bricks are thrown at me*

Enjoy your vacation, folks! Same time, same place next week. Go Sox.