TNF Week 1: Ravens-Chiefs Preview, Props, Prediction

(Image credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images)

When the Kansas City Chiefs host the Baltimore Ravens in their season opener on Thursday, they will begin their attempt to become the first team since the 1960s to win three consecutive NFL championships.

This competition is a rematch of last season's AFC Championship Game, which the Chiefs won 17-10.OPPORTUNITIES AND TRENDS

Kansas City is the unanimous favorite by 3.0 points, which is essentially the advantage they receive for the game at Arrowhead Stadium.

The game was even at BetRivers, with the Chiefs backed by 52 percent of the total spread line bet while the Ravens took 52 percent of the total bets. Meanwhile, Kansas City was backed by 55 and 56 percent of the bet, respectively, at BetMGM, causing the line to shift slightly from the opening price of 2.5 points.

“Bettors are currently split on the Chiefs' season opener against the Ravens,” said Tristan Davis, senior trading manager at BetMGM. “We expect there to be more action on the Chiefs once kickoff happens. Bookies will want the Ravens to score.”

The 46.5-point over at BetRivers has been popular, attracting 67 percent of the money and 66 percent of the tickets. Four of the Ravens' last six Thursday night games have been over the total score line.

PROP SELECTION

–Derrick Henry Anytime TD (-122 at BetRivers): Henry, the Ravens' new top running back after eight seasons as a leadoff figure in Tennessee, makes his debut in Baltimore on Thursday night. It's the most-bet bet, pulling in 5.2 percent of all money. Henry has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last three regular-season games against the Chiefs.

–Patrick Mahomes over 268.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM): After two Henry bets, this was the most popular bet at BetMGM in terms of total bets. The Chiefs quarterback surpassed that mark eight times last season, and while Baltimore is known for its strong defense, the Ravens lost coordinator Mike Macdonald to Seattle in the offseason.

KEY STATISTICS

Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has not thrown an interception in 13 consecutive regular-season games when Baltimore was the underdog, and he has rushed for at least 54 yards in four of the last five meetings.

THE NEWS

The Ravens inexplicably ran the ball just 16 times — eight times to Jackson — for 81 yards in last season's AFC title game, despite finishing the regular season with the NFL's best running attack. The game plan should be different with four-time Pro Bowler Henry, who rushed for 672 yards with eight touchdowns in six career games against Kansas City.

Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta tried to sign Henry at the trade deadline last season, but the Titans declined. Henry became the Ravens' top free agent target and DeCosta signed him to a two-year, $16 million contract in March.

Asked this week if he would have been the difference for the Ravens in last season's playoffs, Henry said: “Sure. I wish I could have played the day I saw the game. But yeah, it's my turn now, so I've got to take advantage. It's going to be a hell of a game. The Chiefs are always tough and they're solid in all three phases, so we're going to have to play with focus this week to be able to hold on Thursday.”

The Chiefs have not been afraid to make history this season and become the first team to win a third consecutive Super Bowl. The Ravens are one of their biggest challengers in the AFC, and Kansas City players want to send the message to the rest of the NFL that their team is still the one to beat.

The Chiefs will get a chance on Thursday night, shortly after unveiling their championship banner for Super Bowl LVIII, and Mahomes expects another hard-fought matchup.

“In general, physicality and speed. That's the Ravens,” Mahomes said. “They're a team that's going to play hard. They're going to play physical, and you have to accept that challenge. If you don't, they're going to dominate the game of football.”

“Even though they've changed defensive coordinators, they have the same principles. I think that's more the team (and) the culture that they have, and I'm sure there's going to be some idiosyncrasies out there that we're going to have to adapt to. I mean, they've got a great football team (and) a great defense. It's going to be a big challenge for us.”

INJURY REPORT

Chiefs wide receiver Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is out with a shoulder injury. Kansas City has eight other injured players on the injured list, including defensive tackle Chris Jones and offensive lineman Wayna Morris. All practiced on Wednesday and are available for Thursday's game.

Rookie Rasheen Ali, Baltimore's No. 3 running back, missed practice all week and is questionable with a neck injury. Ravens rookie outside linebacker Adisa Isaac (hamstring) is out.

THEY SAID IT

“Every game I play is a revenge game for me. I'm not going to look at this game as just a revenge game. No matter who we play, no matter if we've beaten them or lost them in previous years, I just want to win.” – Jackson, who has lost four of five previous meetings against Mahomes.

FORECAST

This is a key litmus test for both teams to open the season in a game that could have big implications for home-court advantage come playoff time. Expect more points than the 27 total points scored in the AFC Championship Game, but the Chiefs are rested, their stars are healthy and Arrowhead will rock. –Chiefs 27, Ravens 23

–Field level media