ESPN's FPI offers a historically bleak outlook for Florida's 2024 season after the loss to Miami

ESPN's FPI is clearly upset with Florida after the Gators' devastating home loss to Miami in Week 1.

The Football Power Index (FPI) is a simulation-based prediction metric that ESPN describes as a measure of a team's strength. ESPN compared the FPI to the numbers that Las Vegas bookies use when setting betting odds.

Before Week 1, the FPI gave Florida a 50% or better chance of winning in 6 games, including Miami. The Hurricanes' win in the Swamp drastically changed those numbers.

Things are looking bleak for Billy Napier and the Gators going forward. The FPI predicted record for Florida is 4-8 (3.8-8.2). And that's despite the FPI predicting Florida will pull off a few upsets along the way. Game after game, the numbers point to a historically bad season, the worst since 0-10-1 in 1979.

Florida plays Samford, an FCS school, in Week 2. After that, there are 10 Power 4 opponents, and the FPI doesn't favor the Gators in any of them.

Here are the FPI’s updated win probability projections for Florida:

• September 7: vs. Samford – 98.7% chance of winning
• September 14: vs. Texas A&M – 40.1%
• September 21: at Mississippi State – 39.6%
• Oct. 5: vs. UCF – 42.1%
• October 12: in Tennessee – 12.5%
• Oct. 19: vs. Kentucky – 45.2%
• November 2: against Georgia (in Jacksonville) – 5.7%
• November 9: in Texas – 5.3%
• November 16: vs. LSU – 39.1%
• November 23: vs. Ole Miss – 20.3%
• November 30: at Florida State – 36.7%

The numbers will change as the season progresses, but right now it's hard to imagine a worse outlook for Napier. The third-year head coach entered the 2024 season with a poor reputation after posting an 11-14 record in his first two seasons. Napier's Gators being dominated on both sides of the ball by a Miami team that is also in the third year of a rebuild has demoralized the Florida fan base and led to increased speculation about a coaching change.

While Samford is expected to be a win for Florida, it's safe to say the Bulldogs won't be fazed by the swamp game. Samford scored 52 points against UF in Gainesville in 2021. The Bulldogs are 0-1 this year after a 38-29 loss in the season opener to West Georgia.