Harris vs. Trump: CBS News poll shows close race between Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin ahead of debate

In Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – all close races – the larger contours of the entire presidential campaign are already emerging ahead of the first debate between Harris and Trump.

What makes these states so close? We'll examine some of the salient factors, including who is viewed as better by key voting groups, who voters think has the cognitive health needed, and what to make of the campaign and social media rhetoric.

One with one hand: Trump is ahead among voters who simply do not believe they are better off financially since the pandemic, whose incomes are not keeping pace with inflation, and especially among voters without college degrees and white voters who hold this view.

The majority of these white voters without a college degree – always a critical group in these states – say that under Trump, the opportunities of the working class in particular would improve.

On the other hand, Harris can keep up in one respect. She is even slightly better than Trump when it comes to protecting the interests of the middle class. Trump will also be more likely to try to represent the interests of the rich in all states.

And in these states, where Housing is widely considered unaffordable, but Harris has a slight edge when it comes to taking measures that would make it more affordable.

And yet other group dynamics are also at play: Most of these white voters without college degrees believe that Harris would care more about the interests of blacks and Hispanics than those of whites.

And while Harris has the significant advantage of being perceived as someone who advocates for union members' interests, the actual vote on union budgets is close, suggesting that these voters – as they always do – are basing their decisions on factors that go beyond union-related issues.

On the way to the first Harris-Trump debate There is one measure that is very different from the one President Biden and Trump faced in June.

Now it is Democrat Harris who is viewed by more people as cognitively and mentally healthy enough to serve, while Trump is comparatively less so. (This was very different in our national polls when Mr. Biden was still in the race.)

What influence have campaign rhetoric and social media had recently? That depends on who you ask.

A large majority find Trump's comments and social media posts toward Harris offensive and they don't like that.

But many overlook this, as has been the case in similar situations for years. A quarter of them still vote for Trump.

What is offensive is in the eye of the beholder. Republican MAGA voters in particular are divided on whether they find Trump’s comments and posts respectful, and many may them.

And in turn, most Trump voters say they think Harris' comments about him be offensive.

Because of these Republican views, a smaller majority of voters overall find Harris' comments about Trump a personal insult, but to a lesser extent than Trump voters.

The “tension factor” and greater perceptions

Harris could benefit from her positions being seen as “mainstream” rather than “extreme.” Most voters describe Trump's positions as “extreme.”

Although definitions vary, given public demands, most agree that the United States needs a president who is more mainstream than extremist.

We've seen these views influence elections in these states in recent years. In 2022, for example, Democrats did well on similar measures when they defeated MAGA-backed candidates.

The excitement factor

Harris is outperforming Trump in enthusiasm among partisans. Democrats are more enthusiastic about what they've seen of Harris' campaign lately than Republicans are about what they've seen of Trump's campaign.

As we've seen nationally, Harris has solidified the vote of the Democratic base. And today, both Democrats and Republicans say they will definitely vote.

These CBS News/YouGov polls were conducted between September 3 and 6, 2024. They are based on representative samples of 1,086 registered voters in Michigan, 1,085 in Pennsylvania, and 958 in Wisconsin. Margin of error for registered voters: Michigan +/- 3.7 points, Pennsylvania +/- 3.5 points, and Wisconsin +/- 4.0 points.