Trump-Harris races neck and neck nationwide, according to new poll, pollster sees “warning signs” for Democrats

Former President Trump and Vice President Harris are neck and neck ahead of their first – and possibly only – debate in Philadelphia on Tuesday, according to a new exit poll that some pollsters are calling a “warning sign” for Democrats.

According to an NPR/PBS News/Marist national poll released Tuesday morning, Harris leads Trump among registered voters 49 percent to 48 percent, showing a closer race since August, when Harris had a three-percentage-point lead over Trump.

Among those who definitely plan to vote, Harris is 3 percentage points ahead of Trump at 51%, according to the poll.

Among independent voters, however, Trump leads Harris (46%) with 49%, up 14 percentage points from August, when Harris had an 11 percentage point lead in a field that included several candidates, such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the poll showed.

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Recent polls show former President Trump and Vice President Harris tied ahead of their presidential debate in Philadelphia on Tuesday. (Emily Elconin/Getty Images, File)

Republican pollster Whit Ayers told PBS News that the shift in support among independents was a “warning sign” for Harris' campaign.

Some pollsters say the “honeymoon phase” for Harris' campaign is over, as support for the two candidates appears to be neck and neck after an initial surge of enthusiasm for the Democrat. (Sarah Rice for The Washington Post via Getty Images, file)

“She had a honeymoon phase,” Ayers said of the initial excitement Harris generated among Democrats after President Biden dropped out of the race.

The latest results of the New York Times-Siena poll released on Sunday also showed that the two candidates are neck and neck.

In that poll, Trump appeared to shake off the enthusiasm that arose after Harris entered the presidential race, securing the support of 48 percent of likely voters, compared with just 47 percent who said they supported the vice president.

New poll shows Trump ahead with “remarkably stable” support

The NPR/PBS News/Marist national poll also found Trump leading among Latino voters with 51%, while Harris was ahead with 47%, up 9 percentage points since August.

On the issues, the poll found that a majority of Americans think Trump is better equipped to handle the immigration crisis (53% to 46%), the economy (52% to 48%) and the Middle East (51% to 47%), but Harris is seen as the candidate who can better handle the abortion issue (56% to 42% for Trump).

Republican strategist Kevin Madden told PBS News that Harris' initial surge of support and enthusiasm was a “tremendous sugar rush” because she was “a new candidate not named Trump or Biden.” Now, Madden says, recent polls show that surge of enthusiasm is fading.

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“This race has gone back to where it always was, which was a very, very close election between a deeply divided electorate, and this election is going to be very, very close and it's going to come down to a few hundred thousand voters in a handful of states,” Madden told the outlet.

Michael Lee of Fox News Digital contributed to this report.