Predicting the favorites and toughest challengers for the 2024 MLB playoffs

In an unexpected twist in the MLB season, there are no superteams at the top of the standings just before the postseason.

No team is on pace to win 100 games. This would be the first season since 2014 that no team reaches that mark. Although the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers have emerged in the race for first place in the standings, the situation behind them is less clear: Only four games separate the teams with the third and ninth best records in baseball.

With that in mind, we asked a panel of MLB executives, scouts and players to pick the team to beat between the National League's top two, as well as the most likely contenders that could defeat them. Which NL heavyweight is best positioned for October? Or which of the remaining contenders could spring an upset? Here's what they said. (Note: Some voters requested anonymity to speak freely about other teams.)

Which of the clubs with the two best records will be the team to beat in October?

Philadelphia Phillies – 9

Los Angeles Dodgers – 4

Support for Philadelphia increased during our reaction window as the number of pitcher injuries in the Dodgers' rotation continued to mount. Last week, Gavin Stone was placed on the injured list with shoulder inflammation, joining Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (who returned Tuesday night) as LA starters whose postseason status is uncertain.

But even beyond all the questions about the Dodgers, there are more and more observers who believe that this is Philadelphia's year.

“I would say the Phillies because of their starting pitching,” Chicago Cubs pitcher Jameson Taillon said recently. “They've strengthened their bullpen and have the power to win in the playoffs. In my opinion, they're the team to beat.”

While the Dodgers rely on their star cast, our jury liked the Phillies' entire squad, which had far fewer weaknesses than in the past.

“Even though there seems to be no rhyme or reason to the playoffs lately, I think the Phillies will break through,” said one American League voter. “Their starting pitchers have thrown the third-most innings in baseball and their relievers have the second-best strikeout rate in MLB. Power plus a bullpen that misses bats and doesn't have to come into play until the sixth inning at the earliest is a good formula.”

Although Philadelphia's roster appears to have the right mix for October, other voters believe Los Angeles' star trio of Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman will be too strong for anyone in the postseason.

“I just can't imagine those three coming out enough in a series to beat them,” said one AL scout. “In a game? Sure. But in a best-of-five or better, I still like Los Angeles — as long as they can find someone to pitch.”

Who is the biggest threat to the Phillies and Dodgers?

San Diego Padres – 8

Milwaukee Brewers – 5

Baltimore Orioles – 5

New York Yankees – 3

Cleveland Browns – 3

Houston Astros – 1

Besides the two clubs at the top of the standings, another NL contender was most frequently mentioned as the team no one wants to face this postseason: the Padres.

“We saw the Padres after the trade deadline after they acquired [Jason] Adam and Tanner Scott, and they can make it a five-inning game really, really quickly,” said Pittsburgh Pirates manager Derek Shelton. “This bullpen is elite. And they're really explosive offensively. And when you talk about trade acquisitions, they just got one of the best players in the game back in [Fernando] Tatis. That changes the dynamic of their lineup.”

Since those deadline additions, San Diego's bullpen ranks first in strikeout percentage and fourth in walk percentage. Given the increased importance of relievers in October, many of our panel members believe this could be a winning formula for the playoffs – especially in a potential matchup against the Padres' biggest rivals.

“I do think the Dodgers are pretty damn good,” said one NL manager. “But I don't know if I want to play the Padres in a postseason series, especially if Tatis is fully healthy by then. This is a dangerous team that can score runs and has a solid rotation, but more importantly, they can shorten games and get a lot of strikeouts in the late innings – which is hugely important in the postseason.”

Another team that was mentioned by many on our panel is the Brewers, who have managed to go unnoticed for most of this season despite being on their way to the division title. They even have an outside chance of snagging a first-round bye to Philadelphia or Los Angeles.

“I see Milwaukee as a potential dark horse,” said one NL executive. “I think they're a very versatile club from what I see, and they don't get nearly enough media attention. I think they're going to be a tough opponent.”

A pitcher from another competitor agreed with the Brewers' assessment.

“A surprise team would be Milwaukee,” said Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt, who was asked to rule out his own team. “I would say don't underestimate them. They can hit. They play really well at home. They have a good, young, fast team. And [William] Contreras is pivotal in the middle of this lineup.”

Our voters were unanimous in their opinion that many of the most dangerous teams are found in the National League, but there was still plenty of support for the teams battling for the AL East crown.

Although the Orioles are behind the Yankees in the standings, our panel believes Baltimore is the tougher opponent in October.

“I'm still rooting for the Orioles if they get Grayson Rodriguez, Jordan Westburg and others back for the home stretch,” said a manager of an AL rival.

That could be a big “if” for a team that has a 23-25 ​​record since the All-Star break and appears to have lost some of the offensive power that carried it to the AL East title last season.

“They've been missing at bat here and there this season,” said one NL scout. “Remember that streak where they didn't get swept? I feel like that ended because their offense was inconsistent.”

As for the Yankees, our panel knows Aaron Judge and Juan Soto can carry them well into October – but there were enough questions about the rest of the team and their pitching staff to make some of our voters hesitate.

“New York is good,” said a scout for an AL rival. “I'm not sure they have enough pitchers, especially in the bullpen.”

On the other hand, the Guardians' bullpen, which leads the AL Central, was one of the main reasons to fear them in a postseason series.

“Cleveland is a tough team. Their offense is a problem. Their bullpen is really, really good, too,” said New York Mets relief pitcher Ryne Stanek. “They play the game the way you have to play it to win in the playoffs. I think you have to look at the teams, especially, that do the things that win in October, and they play good defense, they don't beat themselves up, they put the ball in play, they can hit some home runs.”

No team has known how to win in October better than the Astros in recent seasons. Although Houston is no longer the clear favorite to finish at the top of the division and is unlikely to get a first-round bye, no one expects it to be late in the season again.

“I mean, it's hard to bet against the Astros,” Stanek said. “Basically, it's just the experience and the pedigree they've had over the last decade.”

Voters chose not to vote for any of the final NL wild-card contenders, perhaps because the race between the Mets and Atlanta Braves is too close to predict a winner. Likewise, Kansas City and Minnesota received no support from our panel for a championship run. One voter noted that both teams were 12-1 against the Chicago White Sox this season and were around .500 in the rest of their schedules.

Of course, you don't have to look far to find evidence that a team can go far without being a popular favorite before the postseason – the Arizona Diamondbacks are looking to build on their run in the 2023 World Series, likely with another NL wild card.

“Look at last year with Arizona,” said Mets catcher Luis Torrens. “Before that with Washington. Then with Texas. I was with Seattle last year. If we had beaten Texas, [to end the regular season]they would have been eliminated and we would have made the playoffs. And we won three and lost one, and look at what they did. They won everything.”

ESPN.com MLB reporter Jorge Castillo contributed to this story