The state of the American League race

With a little over two weeks left in the regular season, the Royals seem poised to make their first playoff appearance in nine seasons. They currently sit in the second Wild Card spot, with a magic number of 11 to clinch a playoff spot, and a 92 percent chance of making the post-season, according to Fangraphs.

For the post-season, each division winner will make up the top three seeds. The three Wild Card teams will be the next three seeds, even if they have a better record than the division winners. The top two teams in the league will receive a first-round bye, while the #3 seed hosts the #6 seed in a best-of-three Wild Card series with all games at the site of the top seed, and the #4 seed hosting the #5 seed in the same manner. The two winning teams will advance and play the top two seeds in a best-of-five series in the traditional League Division Series format.

How do fellow American League contenders stack up and what does the remaining schedule look like? Could the Royals still make a run at the division or even the #1 overall seed?

1. New York Yankees (84-62)

Run differential: +124 (tied for 1st in MLB)

By virtue of their extra-inning win over the Royals last night, the Yankees have the top seed, owning the tiebreaker over the Guardians. The Yankees currently have a 1.5 game lead in the division on the Orioles, with Baltimore owning the tie-breaker. So the Yankees could be the top seed, or they could be the #4 seed (or lower!) if the Orioles catch them.

The Yankees got off to a terrific start, but have been mediocre most of the summer. On June 15 they stood with the best record in baseball, but they have gone just 35-40 since then – only three AL teams have been worse over that time. Many issues stem from the bullpen, which has a 4.30 ERA since that mark with closer Clay Holmes leading baseball with 12 blown saves.

They have starting pitching depth, but a lack of consistency. Gerrit Cole has been slightly disappointing, Carlos Rodón had a rough stretch earlier this summer, Luis Gil and Marcus Stroman have been up-and-down, Nestor Cortes Jr. was briefly sent to the bullpen, and Clarke Schmidt is just now returning from injury. The Yankees will have to sort out which pitchers they trust in a short series.

Remaining schedule: vs. Boston (4), at Seattle (3), at Oakland (3), vs. Baltimore (3), vs. Pittsburgh (3)

Boston and Seattle are still fighting for playoff spots, and the A’s have been surprisingly feisty, playing near .500 ball most of the summer. The home series with the Orioles looms large and could determine the division – the Orioles have taken six of ten so far in the season series.

Question to answer: What happens if teams pitch around Juan Soto and Aaron Judge? The acquisition of Jazz Chisholm Jr. has helped lengthen the lineup, but the Yankees have just five hitters with an OPS+ of 100 or greater. They have struggled to score against some top rotations – they have scored just 3.6 runs-per-game against the Orioles, and scored just five runs against Royals starters in a three-game series this week.

2. Cleveland Guardians (84-62)

Run differential: +79 (9th in MLB)

The Guardians also got off to a terrific start, and while a 12-17 August made the division a race again, they have righted the ship by winning six of nine in September so far. That has opened up a 4.5 game lead on the Royals and 6 game lead on the Twins, with Fangraphs giving them a 91 percent chance of taking the division. The Guardians hold a tiebreaker over the Twins, but not the Royals for the division. For the top seed, they hold a tiebreaker over the Orioles, but not the Yankees.

The offense has slumped in the second half – they have the eighth-worst wRC+ of any lineup in baseball since the All-Star break. Rookie Jhonkensy Noel has provided a power boost to the lineup, but rookie Kyle Manzardo has not lived up to his lofty prospect ranking. The Guardians can steal a lot of bases, which could be an asset in the post-season

The bullpen has been by far the best in baseball all year with Emmanuel Clase putting up one of the best seasons in recent history by a closer. In a lot of ways, the Guardians mirror the 2014-15 Royals with a high-contact approach, terrific defense and speed, and a shutdown bullpen.

Remaining schedule: vs. Tampa Bay (4), vs. Minnesota (4), at St. Louis (3), vs. Cincinnati (2), vs. Houston (3)

The Rays have faded from contention, and the Twins are fading in the standings. The Cardinals are sunk, and while the Reds may be feisty, they have a losing record. The Astros may have nothing left to play for in that final weekend series. The Guardians get two off days in the final week of the season to reset their rotation for the playoffs.

Question to answer: What pitchers start in a short series? The rotation has been bad all year – they have a 4.55 ERA overall with only Tanner Bibee posting an ERA under four. The Guardians have tried newly acquired veteran Alex Cobb and rookie Joey Cantillo in recent weeks, but have found few answers to who could stand toe-to-toe with other top contenders in the post-season.

3. Houston Astros (77-68)

Run differential: +85 (7th in MLB)

The Astros have a 3.5 game lead on the Mariners in the division and trail the #2 seed Guardians by 6.5 games, so they’re probably locked in for the #3 seed. They got off to a dreadful start – they were 10-20 at one point and didn’t climb over .500 until June 30. But they have gone 35-27 since then, the third-best record in the AL over that time.

The Astros had some issues with the rotation for a bit, but they are peaking at the right time and they could feature some of the best post-season starters. Framber Valdez is an elite pitcher (although he has had some post-season missteps), Justin Verlander is a future Hall of Famer, and Hunter Brown and Ronel Blanco have each been terrific this year, although with some inconsistencies, plus veteran Yusei Kikuchi could also be an option.

Houston gets slugger Kyle Tucker back at the right time, with time to get his swing back for the post-season after missing three months with a shin injury.

Remaining schedule: at LA Angels (3), at San Diego (3), vs. LA Angels (4), vs. Seattle (3), at Cleveland (3)

Seven games against the lowly Angels will cure what ails you. If the Mariners are going to make a run, they need to still be in it by the time they travel to Houston in the last week of the season.

Question to answer: Does this team have the juice for another run? The Astros have been in a record seven consecutive League Championship Series. They are experienced and talented. But they showed early this year they can let their guard down, and barring a hot streak, they are going to finish this year with their worst regular season record since 2016. Is the window closing?

4. Baltimore Orioles (83-64)

Run differential: +84 (8th in MLB)

The Orioles have a solid three-game lead over the Royals for the #4 seed, and have their sights set on overtaking the Yankees for the division. They won 101 games last year and were the top seed, only to lose all three playoff games and bounce out early. They come back with a stacked team full of talented young players hungry to prove themselves. The team has hit a bit of a lull though, since July 4 they are just 28-33, the third-worst record in the American League.

The Orioles boast a deep lineup with eight hitters with an OPS+ over 100, plus talented phenom Jackson Holliday, who has struggled thus far but certainly has talent. They have two big time power hitters in Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander, each of whom has over 35 home runs so far. The team is hoping to get starting pitcher Grayson Rodriguez back before the end of the season.

Remaining schedule: at Detroit (3), vs. San Francisco (3), vs. Detroit (3), at NY Yankees (3), at Minnesota (3)

The Tigers have been one of the hotter teams in the second half. The Orioles are certainly circling their series at Yankee Stadium in the last week of the season in a matchup that will likely determine the division.

Question to answer: Who will close games for them? They signed veteran Craig Kimbrel, but he has six blown saves this year and an ERA of 7.71 since the All-Star break. Seranthony Dominguez, acquired from the Phillies this summer, has been getting save opportunities lately and Yennier Cano could be another option in what has been a pretty mediocre Orioles bullpen this year.

5. Kansas City Royals (80-67)

Run differential: +95 (6th in MLB)

The Royals are baseball’s biggest surprise with one of the biggest turnarounds in history. They’ve done it on the back of starting pitching, with a 3.54 ERA from starters, second-bestin baseball. It also helps to have an MVP candidate in Bobby Witt Jr., and while he likely won’t win over New York’s Aaron Judge, he’s having one of the best seasons ever by someone that won’t go home with the award.

The lineup did take a blow with the loss of Vinnie Pasquantino, who was among the RBI leaders in baseball when he suffered a broken thumb in late August. The acquisitions of Paul DeJong, Tommy Pham, Robbie Grossman, and Yuli Gurriel have helped paper over a thin lineup. Like other successful Royals teams, this team can run the bases well and play terrific defense.

Remaining schedule: at Pittsburgh (3), vs. Detroit (3), vs. San Francisco (3), at Washington (3), at Atlanta (3)

This is certainly not “the gauntlet” the Royals faced over the last 20 games where they finished 9-11. However the Pirates and Nationals have been pretty feisty this year, and the Tigers have been a hot team in the second half, pulling into the playoff picture. The Braves are pretty banged up, but could be fighting for their playoff lives in that last series.

Question to answer: How will they use the bullpen? The relief corps has been an issue all season with a 4.47 ERA and the second-worst strikeout rate. Lucas Erceg has given them a fireman who can miss bats, but they’ll need others to step up, and you could see some starters like Michael Lorenzen, Alec Marsh, and maybe even Brady Singer move to the pen in the post-season to give them a boost.

6. Minnesota Twins (78-68)

Run differential: +41 (15th in MLB)

The Twins are banged up. Starting pitcher Joe Ryan and outfielder Max Kepler are out for the year, and the team is hoping shortstop Carlos Correa and outfielder Byron Buxton can return soon. They’ve dropped 11 of their last 17 games to fall behind the Royals in the standings, trailing them by 1.5 games.

They’ll need to rely on some unheralded role players like Carlos Santana and Willi Castro to carry the offense, or get some youngsters to step up like Trevor Larnach or Edouard Julien. The bullpen has been a bit shaky lately too, with manager Rocco Baldelli replacing Jhoan Duran at closer with Griffin Jax.

The Twins have the tie-breaker against the Tigers, so if Detroit were to tie them in the standings, it would mean a one-game playoff in Minnesota.

Remaining schedule: vs. Cincinnati (3), at Cleveland (4), at Boston (3), vs. Miami (3), vs. Baltimore (3)

If Cleveland is going to be caught, Minnesota needs to take the series against them next week. The last series of the season against the Orioles could be interesting. Baltimore could be fighting for the division and the #1 seed, while the Twins may still be fighting for a playoff spot.

Question to answer: Can they beat anyone good? The Twins are 12-1 against the White Sox, and 66-67 against everyone else. They are just 37-51 against any team with a .500 record or better. They are limping towards the finish line, but it is looking like another quick post-season exit for the Twins if they can’t beat any decent teams.

On the outside looking in

Detroit Tigers (75-71)

Run differential: +36 (16th in MLB)

The rebuild effort in Detroit finally seems to be bearing fruit as they have climbed to the outside of the post-season race. The Tigers have a 28-21 record since the All-Star break, best in the American League in that time. They now trail the Twins by three games for the final Wild Card spot.

They’ve won in the second half through pitching – their 3.11 ERA since the All-Star break is the best in baseball. Tarik Skubal is a Cy Young candidate, but it has been a hodgepodge of relievers that have stepped up with a 2.95 ERA in the second half.

The lineup is still below average, but Matt Vierling has carried the offense, and the return of Riley Greene has been a boost. The team has done this despite trading away veterans Mark Canha, Jack Flaherty, and Andrew Chafin at the deadline and losing veteran Javier Báez to injury (or perhaps they are winning because they no longer have him and his 42 wRC+ in the lineup?)

Remaining schedule: vs. Colorado (1), vs. Baltimore (3), at Kansas City (3), at Baltimore (3), vs. Tampa Bay (3), vs. Chicago White Sox (3)

The Tigers will try to finish off a sweep of the Rockies today, but then their next nine games are against likely playoff teams, and the Rays have been around .500 most of the year. Waiting for them at the end is an easy series against the historically awful White Sox, but the Tigers will need to stay in the race for those games to matter.

Question to answer: Is it too little, too late? The Tigers have made a nice run, but it may not be enough to overcome a start that had them eight games below .500 on August 10. But if the Twins continue to slide, the Tigers could catch them and make things interesting.

Boston Red Sox (74-72)

Run differential: +3 (18th in MLB)

The Red Sox were in position for a Wild Card spot, but since beating the Royals on August 6, they have gone just 13-20, the third-worst record in the American League in that time. They now trail the Twins by four games for the final Wild Card spot, and have fallen behind the surging Tigers.

The Red Sox have gone younger, and it has paid off in the lineup with one of the better offenses in baseball.

Remaining schedule: at NY Yankees (4), at Tampa Bay (3), vs. Minnesota (3), at Toronto (3), vs. Tampa Bay (3)

This weekend’s series in New York could be Boston’s last stand in the post-season race. They have seven games left against and underachieving Rays team, and a series left against a rebuilding Blue Jays roster.

Question to answer: What relievers can get the ball to closer Kenly Jansen? You think the Royals bullpen has issues? Boston’s bullpen has a 6.36 ERA since the All-Star break, worst in baseball. Their 29 blown saves are second only to the White Sox. They just lost Brennan Berardino, who joins mid-season acquisitions Lucas Sims and Luis García on the Injured List. They were hoping Liam Hendriks could be ready by now after Tommy John surgery, but he had a setback in his rehab. Kenley Jansen has 26 saves in 30 chances, but the Red Sox are struggling to send any leads to him.

Seattle Mariners (74-72)

Run differential: +45 (14th in MLB)

The Mariners have made a million trades in the last few years, and all they have to show for it is a 2022 playoff appearance in which they were bounced out in the ALDS. They’re going to have to go on a run in the last two weeks if they want to make it this year, as they currently trail the Twins by four games.

They boast the best starting pitching ERA in baseball with a rotation of Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo, with Luis Castillo sidelined with a hamstring injury. But they’ll have to play better on the road if they want to unleash this rotation in a short series. They are 32-43 on the road, the seventh-worst record in baseball.

Remaining schedule: vs. Texas (4), vs. NY Yankees (3), at Texas (3), at Houston (3), vs. Oakland (3)

The defending champion Rangers haven’t played like it this year, so the Mariners have a chance to collect some wins against them. Seattle has played well against the Astros so far this year, taking 6 of 10 games.

Question to answer: Can they score runs? The Mariners are averaging just 4.08 runs-per-game, sixth-worst in baseball. They have the fourth-best walk rate and are middle of the pack in home runs and steals, so there is some potential for more offense, but they’ll have to turn it on in the final weeks.