Nationals consider Soto reunion – MLB transfer rumors

The regular season is not even over yet, but there is already plenty of anticipation for what a potential Juan Soto What free agency will look like. The 26-year-old superstar will enter the market as a top free agent and one of the most coveted talents in the history of free agency. A bidding war between the Yankees and the Mets is already widely expected, and financially strong clubs such as the Dodgers, Blue Jays and Giants are also being speculated as possible destinations. Hardly a big free agent goes by without Padres president AJ Preller at least throwing his hat in the ring. Other clubs will certainly get involved.

Among the other potential suitors, ESPN's Jorge Castillo writes, Soto's original club could be among them. The Nationals “would love to reunite with Soto,” Castillo reports, though it's not yet clear whether ownership will be willing to offer more than when Soto turned down a 15-year, $440 million contract extension. That decision baffled many fans, but it proved to be a wise one in the long run. That 15-year term would have included Soto's final two arbitration seasons. He earned a total of $54 million in those two seasons anyway. Soto “only” needs to come up with the remaining $386 million to come out on top in that gambit, and it would be astonishing if he missed that mark, given his age, track record and sensational free agent season.

Could this offer still come from the Nationals? It's impossible to know exactly how comfortable the Lerner family (who own the Nationals) is, but there's reason to believe they could make an even higher offer than last time.

For one thing, the Nats were in the early stages of a rebuild when they made their original offer to Soto. Max Scherzer And Trea Turner was traded to the Dodgers at the deadline of the previous season. The Nationals weren't even close to being competitive then, but are exponentially closer now, thanks in no small part to the return they got from trading Soto. MacKenzie Gore has secured a rotation spot. CJ Abrams has established himself as a shortstop despite his poor performance in the second half. James Wood was rated as a top talent in baseball when he made his debut in July. Robert Hassell III and left-handed Jarlin Susana are still in the minors.

It must also be emphasized that the Lerner family was exploring a possible sale of the team at the time. That process began in early 2022. Several potential ownership groups spoke to the current owners about the possibility, but two years later, managing principal owner Mark Lerner (the son of the late Ted Lerner, who passed away in 2023) publicly stated that his family was no longer looking for a buyer. “We have decided, our family has decided, that we are not going to sell the team,” Lerner told The Washington Post in February.

This change in long-term planning obviously has implications for how the Lerner family might allocate its resources. While an offer of over $400 million shows a clear willingness to spend money as part of a potential sale process, there were also presumably limits to how much money the owners were willing to spend in the long term. Ultimately, any interested buyers would have to pay the balance – especially since the offer reportedly did not include any deferred payments (a departure from their previous high-dollar contracts, which included almost all deferrals).

Now, more than two years after the contract extension offer, the Nats are closer to the competition and have a much cleaner salary outlook. This is the last season of Patrick Corbin's six-year contract. The only players who are guaranteed money beyond the current year are Stephen Strasburgwhose career is over but who is still under contract until 2026, and catcher Keibert Ruizwhose relatively modest $50 million contract extension runs through 2030 and has an average annual value of $6.25 million. Consider that at their peak in 2019, the Nationals finished the season with a whopping $205 million payroll, according to Cot's Contracts. The Nats can absolutely afford to make a competitive offer And Build a team around him and the rest of your emerging core.

With that in mind, while any team would move players around to make room for Soto in their outfield, Washington probably wouldn't even need to. The Nats currently have Wood, a standout defensive player. Jacob Jung and top perspective Dylan Crews in the outfield. Young is an elite defender, but he's only hitting .255/.315/.336 this season. He could easily be moved to a fourth outfield role, or he could play center regularly while the trio of Wood, Crews, and Soto rotate the two corner positions and designated hitter. Getting at-bats for all of those names wouldn't be particularly difficult.

Moreover, the Nats still know Soto as well or better than any other team in the game. Most of the team's key pieces were already there when they originally signed and developed Soto. Mike Rizzo has been the Nats' president of baseball operations and general manager since he was hired in 2009, when Soto was 11 years old. The Lerner family has owned the Nats since the former Expos moved from Montreal to DC in 2006. Davey Martinez managed every game of Soto's major league career before he was traded to the Padres. Of course, there are others in the organization, from coaches to scouts to executives, left over from Soto's DC days.

The larger question is probably whether Soto would want to return to a Nationals club that doesn't have the look and feel of a current contender. He would have to buy into the team's farm system and see the future and potential of players like Wood, Crews, Abrams, Gore, top talent Brady House and others. His familiarity with Rizzo and especially Martinez (with whom he dealt on a daily basis) would certainly be an important factor, but Soto has certainly also built a good relationship with key officials in San Diego and the Bronx. Unless the Lerner family has blown all other bidders out of the water, Soto's return to Washington would likely have to be based at least in part on nostalgia and fond memories of his original organization.

At just 25 years old (26 in October), Soto is on the verge of landing the largest contract ever signed by an outfielder – probably the largest contract in MLB history in terms of net present value. Shohei OhtaniThe 10-year, $700 million deal is currently the benchmark, but given the enormous number of deferrals, the net present value of the contract doesn't even come close to that total; Ohtani's contract carries a luxury loss of $46 million and the MLBPA has calculated the net present value at $437.5 million.

Some may wonder if Soto and agent Scott Boras would consider a similar deal, although Boras' comments following the Ohtani deal suggest otherwise. Speaking to Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic, Boras opined that the reduced NPV of Ohtani's contract is underwhelming overall for a player of his caliber: “Market remains status quo. No average annual value of $44 million or more. Clear evidence of a strategic and controlled effort.” Readers can make up their own minds about the value of that stance, but it seems to be a clear indication that Boras will look to set a more concrete new precedent in terms of current value when he launches his own unicorn free agent this winter.

Soto is already a four-time All-Star, four-time Silver Slugger winner (he'll win a fifth this season), World Series champion and Home Run Derby champion. He has a .285/.421/.533 batting average in the major leagues and is currently enjoying the best 162-game season of his career as measured by percentage. He's batted .289/.418/.580 with a career-high 39 home runs while walking in 18% of his at-bats while having just a 16.2% strikeout rate. He's on pace to walk more than strikeout for the fifth straight season.

According to Statcast, Soto ranks in the 94th percentile or better among all MLB players in average exit velocity, hard hit rate, barrel rate, batting speed, chase rate, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, expected wOBA and walk rate. He is extremely durable, averaging 155 games played per season from 2021-2023, and will match or exceed that pace again in 2024, barring a recent injury. Defense has been a setback in the past, but Soto has delivered career-best defensive numbers this season. Statcast credits him with 97th percentile arm strength. He has below-average but not sluggish velocity, which limits his range and restricts him to outside corners.

The Nats and other clubs know this very well, of course. Soto is in line for a record contract. Everyone expects it. The incumbent Yankees are the favorites, but the competition will be fierce, and there are many reasons why Soto's original club could become a real threat in the coming bidding war.