Week 3 college football preview BC-Missouri Alabama-Wisconsin Oregon-Oregon State

The college football season has plenty of epic heavyweight clashes on the horizon, games that will decide conference titles and playoff spots (or seeds): Georgia at Alabama in Week 5, Ohio State at Oregon and Texas vs. Oklahoma in Week 7, Georgia at Texas and Alabama at Tennessee in Week 8, just to name a few. The big ones are coming, and they’re usually worth the hype. But as we learned last week, a nice, decentralized, keep-the-remote-in-your-hands-at-all-times week can be an absolute delight.

Week 3 is as decentralized and democratic as you’ll ever see. It gives us only two ranked-vs.-ranked matchups, but instead of focusing on headliners, we get to watch Alabama playing in the land of “Jump Around.” We get Boston College playing its biggest game since, what, 2018? 2008? We get Oregon State fans creating the most hostile environment imaginable for a wobbly Oregon team. We get the Backyard Brawl and the Apple Cup. We get a couple of potentially outstanding Friday night games in Kansas. We get a rematch of last year’s ridiculous Colorado-Colorado State game. We get a night game between two of the Big 12’s most chaotic programs (TCU and UCF). We get to see East Carolina’s Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium at its absolute best for an in-state rivalry game. We get the biggest Indiana-UCLA game ever (technically true).

We’re going to have an absolute blast, in other words. Here’s everything you need to follow in Week 3. (All times are Eastern.)

Jump to a topic:
BC-Missouri | Alabama-Wisconsin
Early Rivalry Week | Big 12 status check
SEC tripleheader | Chaos superfecta
Week 3 playlist

‘May the best man win’

No. 24 Boston College at No. 6 Missouri (Saturday, 12:45 p.m., SECN)

“There’s a lot of people talking about Group of 5, Power 4, the money and the resources and NIL. It’s about the players and it’s about lining up and banging heads and [may] the best man win. You saw that [Saturday].”

Northern Illinois coach Thomas Hammock’s quote after the Huskies’ win over Notre Dame was a life-giver. We spend the entire offseason basically boiling everything down to spreadsheets and power. We watch the two most powerful conferences arrange to vacuum up an even higher percentage of the money than before. We create in our heads a universe in which only the richest programs matter and money eliminates all uncertainty in this game.

And then 22 guys line up on the field and the 11 from DeKalb beat the 11 from South Bend. And the guys from Berkeley fly across the country and win on The Plains. And guys from Georgia Tech and Boston College beat guys from the school that spent all offseason telling anyone who would listen that it’s too good for its own conference.

And then those guys from Boston get a shot at an SEC team.

Granted, a year ago, Missouri being sixth in the country right now would have felt even less realistic than Boston College ranking 24th. But after a 2-0 start, which included a shellacking of Florida State, BC has a chance to score its first win over a team ranked as high as No. 6 since a 2002 win over No. 4 Notre Dame. The Eagles have overachieved against the spread by an average of 27 points per game, they’re avoiding negative plays and penalties and creating lots of negative plays for opponents, and they could create far more of a problem for Missouri than expected in the preseason.

After wins by a combined 89-0 over Murray State and Buffalo, Missouri’s defense ranks first nationally in points per drive (0.0, obviously), yards per drive (11.1), success rate* allowed (20.3%), completion rate allowed (37.1%) and raw QBR allowed (1.0). The Tigers’ run numbers have been good but not quite as dominant, and BC will especially test them in that regard. Backs Treshaun Ward, Kye Robichaux and Turbo Richard (!) have combined for 64 carries and 346 yards, and bouncy quarterback Thomas Castellanos is scrambling as well as ever. Castellanos isn’t an amazing passer, but he seems to be improving in that regard. And he’s impossible to hem in.

(* Success rate: How frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth.)

The BC defense has been extremely efficient, but the Eagles have allowed some big plays here and there. And evidently Mizzou has been saving its big plays up. The Tigers are almost never knocked off schedule, but they’ve also enjoyed only six gains of 20-plus yards, tied for 94th in FBS. If we chart offenses’ success rates (efficiency) and their average yards per successful play (explosiveness), Missouri ends up right next to Army.

Star receiver Luther Burden III hasn’t been much of a factor yet, and after completing 46% of passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield in 2023, quarterback Brady Cook is just 1-for-6 so far. Those feel like things that will correct themselves over time, but the Tigers might want that correction to begin Saturday.

SP+ is slow to trust teams that were projected low and overachieve early, so it’s not convinced we have a game here. But BC has more than looked the part so far in 2024.

Current line: Mizzou -16 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 22.4 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 11.3

Control vs. anti-control in Madison

No. 4 Alabama at Wisconsin (Saturday, noon, Fox)

Kalen DeBoer’s first road game as Bama head coach is a unique one. By my count, Alabama has played only one of the original Big Ten teams in that team’s home stadium. It was also Wisconsin, and it was 96 years ago.

Bama looked spectacular in Week 1 but last week found itself in another unexpected dogfight with South Florida. The Tide led just 21-16 with six minutes left until a late cascade of big-play touchdowns restored order. The Tide are 77th in success rate but fifth in yards per successful play. They’re 108th in turnover margin (minus-2), but they’re creating lots of explosions and allowing none.

That’s probably fine with Wisconsin: The Badgers don’t try to create any explosions anyway. Somehow the school hired tempo-and-spread master Phil Longo as offensive coordinator and became more Wisconsin than ever. The Badgers are 29th in success rate; their backs are averaging 36.5 carries per game; and when quarterback Tyler Van Dyke throws the ball, he’s basically making extended handoffs.

Van Dyke’s passes are averaging just 7.0 air yards (100th), and he’s just 2-for-9 on passes thrown 15-plus yards downfield. Wisconsin tries to play with all the control Bama lacks.

Alabama’s offensive line has been banged up, which hasn’t helped quarterback Jalen Milroe’s all-or-nothing tendencies. Under a new coaching regime, Milroe is still Milroe: He’s still throwing downfield a ton; he’s still making lots of big plays via air and ground; and he’s still taking lots of sacks.

Milroe has quite the big-play crew around him — backs Jam Miller and Justice Haynes average 9.4 yards per carry, and receivers Kobe Prentice, Germie Bernard and freshman Ryan Williams average 22.1 yards per catch. But with all those weapons, the Tide were still in a dogfight with USF. If the Badgers can manage the explosions, this could be an interesting one. If they can’t, well, Camp Randall’s always a good time regardless.

Current line: Bama -15 | SP+ projection: Bama by 17.5 | FPI projection: Bama by 23.0

An early Rivalry Week in the Pacific Northwest

It sets a low bar to celebrate the simple fact that epic rivalry games such as Oregon-Oregon State and Washington-Washington State are still happening. But in this age of conference realignment, it wasn’t a given. So hooray for small blessings. (And hooray for the weather forecast: It’s supposed to be 68 and rainy in Corvallis, so it will still look like November on television.)

No. 9 Oregon at Oregon State (3:30 p.m., Fox)

It’s approaching put-up-or-shut-up time for Oregon: Either start looking like the top-five team you were supposed to be or start losing games. The Ducks took a scare from Idaho and needed a pair of return touchdowns to beat Boise State; I’m sure they’re happy to get away from Idaho teams, but now it’s rivalry time.

Oregon is still handily winning the efficiency battle. The Ducks are generating a 50% success rate (35th) and allowing just 30% (21st), and only 24% of their offensive plays have failed to gain yards (23rd), compared with 47% for opponents (sixth). There have been two problems, however. First, opponents are outrushing them. Yes, Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty certainly contributed to that, but Idaho’s backs averaged 5.3 yards per carry, too. The return of guard Matthew Bedford could help a shuffled O-line, but things aren’t quite right on either side of the ball here. Second, they’re losing the big-play battle. They’re generating just 11.5 yards per successful play (95th) and allowing 14.7 (119th).

An overhauled Oregon State offense probably won’t make the same number of big plays that Jeanty and Boise did, but it could challenge the Ducks on the ground. Idaho transfer Gevani McCoy — another Idaho tie! — has been controlled and solid, but he has thrown only 36 passes. The Beavers’ offense has primarily consisted of McCoy handing to Jam Griffin and Anthony Hankerson (combined: 78 carries, 475 yards, 6 TDs). The OSU defense was fed a pass-happy diet by Idaho State and San Diego State and allowed just 4.5 yards per dropback (32nd). Stopping quarterback Dillon Gabriel and the Ducks’ passing game is a different test, but if the Beavers can contain big plays, they can give themselves a shot.

Current line: Ducks -14 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 13.4 | FPI projection: Ducks by 7.4

Washington vs. Washington State (3:30 p.m., Peacock)

The Jedd Fisch era at Washington hasn’t exactly begun with epic challenges, but no complaints: The Huskies outscored Weber State and Eastern Michigan by a combined 65-12. They’ve underachieved against projections on offense but have overachieved on defense by similar margins. Edge rushers Zach Durfee and Deshawn Lynch have 5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks and 9 pressures, and 20 players already have recorded at least one havoc play (TFL, pass defended or forced fumble) for coordinator Steve Belichick.

Now comes one of the weirdest tests in FBS. Wazzu quarterback John Mateer is just 20-for-36 passing (56%), but he’s eighth in Total QBR because (A) 8 of his 20 completions have gained at least 20 yards (four have gained 50-plus) and (B) he also rushed for 267 non-sack yards in wins over Portland State and Texas Tech. True freshman Wayshawn Parker enjoyed a rushing TD of 40-plus yards in both games, and veteran receivers Kyle Williams and Kris Hutson have gained 288 yards with four touchdowns in just 12 receptions. Wazzu has already converted four fourth downs and scored 21 points after those conversions. The Cougars stress the hell out of your defense.

Of course, they also allowed 30 points to Portland State. The Cougars are extremely all-or-nothing: They’ve forced five turnovers (tied for 10th in FBS) but have allowed 13 plays of 20-plus yards (tied for 123rd). Washington attempts to control matters, but Wazzu thrives in chaos. Another game of contrasts.

Current line: Huskies -4.5 | SP+ projection: Huskies by 9.6 | FPI projection: Huskies by 5.5

Big 12 status check

I haven’t hidden my giddiness for how goofy and wild the Big 12 race could be this year, and we could get a taste of this on both Friday and Saturday evenings.

No. 20 Arizona at No. 14 Kansas State (Friday, 8 p.m., Fox)

This one’s a nonconference battle that was scheduled before Arizona joined the Big 12. It’s still a fight between potential Big 12 contenders … and teams that had to labor in Week 2. Arizona trailed Northern Arizona at halftime and survived by only a 22-10 margin. The passing game, such a huge part of the Wildcats’ preseason hype, was poor, and two weeks in, quarterback Noah Fifita ranks only 87th in Total QBR. The defense didn’t struggle much with the Lumberjacks but sure got off to a poor start against New Mexico in Week 1.

Kansas State’s Week 2 struggles at Tulane were more understandable: Tulane is good. The Wildcats didn’t lead until the fourth quarter of a 34-27 win. Quarterback Avery Johnson was a solid 15-for-23 for 181 yards, plus 40 rushing yards, but he’s still a pretty average 51st in Total QBR. Obviously it’s too early to lean heavily into national QB rankings, but whichever of these two quarterbacks more closely lives up to the hype Friday night will likely secure his respective team a big “nonconference” win.

Current line: K-State -7.5 | SP+ projection: K-State by 9.3 | FPI projection: K-State by 9.5

UCF at TCU (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., Fox)

UCF is averaging 51 points per game; TCU 39.5. Both UCF’s Gus Malzahn and TCU’s Sonny Dykes are more than happy to get roped into a track meet, and this one has major track meet potential.

UCF was particularly merciless in beating New Hampshire and Sam Houston by a combined 102-17, and the Knights have been both efficient (16th in success rate) and explosive (11th in percent of plays gaining 20-plus yards). Backs RJ Harvey, Peny Boone and Myles Montgomery are averaging 8.3 yards per carry, and quarterback KJ Jefferson, an Arkansas transfer who was frankly born to play in a Gus Malzahn offense, is at 9.9 yards per dropback and 6.3 yards per (nonsack) carry. The defense has forced loads of third-and-longs, but the pass rush has been unamazing.

TCU fell behind early against Stanford but has since looked perfectly solid against both the Cardinal and Long Island. The pass defense has been just about untouchable, but we’ll see if the run defense is good enough to contain UCF. Quarterback Josh Hoover hasn’t gotten much help from his run game yet, but he has completed at least one pass of 30-plus yards to four different receivers.

UCF has been the better team, but TCU has already handled a tricky road test. The winner of this one becomes, at worst, a dark-horse Big 12 title pick.

Current line: TCU -2 | SP+ projection: TCU by 0.9 | FPI projection: UCF by 2.0

SEC play begins in earnest

Saturday is an all-day SEC affair on ABC, a tripleheader of conference games with all sorts of different stakes.

No. 16 LSU at South Carolina (noon, ABC/ESPN+)

Your SEC-leading South Carolina Gamecocks (they’re 1-0 in conference play) barely got past Old Dominion in Week 1 but blew Kentucky’s doors off 31-6 in Lexington last Saturday. UK quarterbacks attempted 22 passes and, including five sacks, gained just 3 net yards. Three! Edge rushers Kyle Kennard and freshman Dylan Stewart have already combined for six sacks and four forced fumbles.

When LSU has the ball, it will be strength versus strength. Garrett Nussmeier is averaging only 10.7 yards per completion, but he’s completing 75% of his passes and hasn’t taken a sack. When South Carolina has the ball, however, it’s weakness versus weakness. The Gamecocks rank 99th in points per drive, and the Tigers rank 98th in points allowed per drive. South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers is 113th in Total QBR, and Arkansas transfer Raheim Sanders is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry. LSU’s secondary got torched by USC’s Miller Moss, but Sellers is … not Moss. We’ll see which one of these weak-link units is stronger.

Current line: LSU -7 | SP+ projection: LSU by 3.6 | FPI projection: LSU by 0.4

Texas A&M at Florida (3:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN+)

The loser of this one will fall to 1-2. Yikes. A&M’s defense has been solid, and the Aggies are 12th in rushing success rate behind backs Le’Veon Moss and Amari Daniels. But quarterback Conner Weigman has completed just 52% of his passes at 9.8 yards per completion. On passes thrown 15 or more yards downfield, he’s just 1-for-7 with a pick.

Florida, meanwhile, is cruising toward a quarterback controversy. With starter Graham Mertz out with concussion symptoms, blue-chip freshman DJ Lagway threw for 456 yards against Samford. Coach Billy Napier says both QBs will play Saturday, but with a loss — and five more games against SP+ top-20 teams coming up — the Gators might as well hand the reins to Lagway and look toward the future.

Current line: A&M -3.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 2.5 | FPI projection: A&M by 3.5

No. 1 Georgia at Kentucky (7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN+)

Between the third and fourth quarters of the South Carolina loss, Kentucky coach Mark Stoops told sideline reporter Molly McGrath that his team’s performance was embarrassing. On the first play of the fourth quarter, Wildcats quarterback Brock Vandagriff threw a pick-six.

Saturday was an absolute debacle. And now here comes Georgia. The Bulldogs crushed Clemson and cruised by Tennessee Tech in second gear, and aside from a huge number of penalties (155 yards in two games) and a lot of nibbling in the passing game, they haven’t really hinted at any weaknesses. Georgia has won seven straight in this series by double digits, and Kentucky has followed many of those losses with mini-funks. It will be interesting to see what the response here is from the Wildcats after such a poor performance.

Current line: UGA -24 | SP+ projection: UGA -22.5 | FPI projection: UGA by 23.1

Week 3 chaos superfecta

Each week, I use win probabilities as an attempt to will chaos into existence by looking at four games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. And thanks to Boston College over Florida State and Cal over Auburn, we’re 2-for-2!

This week’s superfecta is particularly tantalizing. According to SP+, there’s a 42% chance that Alabama (86% at Wisconsin), Oklahoma (83% vs. Tulane), Oregon (80% at Oregon State) and Washington (73% vs. Wazzu) all win. It obviously suggests Washington is the most likely casualty, but what’s your guess? The Huskies? An Oregon team that has underachieved against projections by more than 50 points? An Oklahoma team that has forgotten how to move the football? An Alabama team that needed about 55 minutes to get rolling against USF?

Week 3 playlist

Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.

Friday night

UNLV at Kansas (7 p.m., ESPN). UNLV has been maybe the single most dominant team in the Group of 5. Now the Rebels get a shot at a Kansas team looking to rebound from an error-plagued loss to Illinois. UNLV’s Matthew Sluka, a Holy Cross transfer, is 24th in Total QBR with his odd brand of dual-threat ball, but KU’s Jalon Daniels has struggled. Is this where both Daniels and the Jayhawks get going?

Current line: KU -7 | SP+ projection: KU by 9.1 | FPI projection: KU by 9.7

Early Saturday

Memphis at Florida State (noon, ESPN). Another major G5 opportunity. Florida State has had a week to regroup following a ghastly 0-2 start, but the Seminoles can’t wait another moment to raise their game. Memphis is 2-0 and up to 27th in SP+. The Tigers have the better quarterback (Seth Henigan, 19th in Total QBR), and to date they might have had the better defense too. It’s now or never, Noles.

Current line: FSU -5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 1.2 | FPI projection: FSU by 9.4

No. 13 Oklahoma State at Tulsa (noon, ESPN2). If we know anything about Oklahoma State, it’s that the Cowboys can both turn any game into a close one and win said game with whatever sorcery is necessary. With games against Utah and Kansas State on deck, however, it would probably serve them well to actually win this one comfortably, as projected. Kevin Wilson’s Tulsa squad can move the ball, though.

Current line: OSU -19 | SP+ projection: OSU by 20.4 | FPI projection: OSU by 14.9

Arkansas State at No. 17 Michigan (noon, BTN). A well-timed get-right game for Michigan. Arkansas State is 2-0 after statistically unimpressive wins over Central Arkansas and Tulsa, and Michigan’s passing situation is even worse than expected, but the Wolverines should be able to use dominance in the trenches to roll to an easy win.

Current line: Michigan -24 | SP+ projection: Michigan by 28.9 | FPI projection: Michigan by 23.4

Cincinnati at Miami (Ohio) (noon, ESPNU). One of the country’s more underrated rivalries — and one that somehow has only one more game scheduled at the moment (in 2026) — took an interesting turn last year when Miami won for the first time in 18 years and tied the all-time series at 60-60-7. Cincinnati’s confidence might be completely shot after last week’s blown lead and loss to Pitt, but the matchups are fun: bad vs. bad (Miami’s destitute offense versus Cincinnati’s sieve of a defense) and good vs. good (Cincinnati’s explosive offense against Miami’s dynamite D).

Current line: Cincy -2 | SP+ projection: Cincy by 5.7 | FPI projection: Cincy by 1.8

Saturday afternoon

West Virginia at Pittsburgh (3:30 p.m., ESPN2). The Backyard Brawl returns for the third of a four-year run. We got a tight Pitt win two years ago and loud “Eat s— Pitt” chants at the end of a 17-6 Mountaineers win last year. This one could produce a particular amount of angst for the losing coach, and it might theoretically have a lot of points too: Both offenses have been far more successful than the defenses.

Current line: WVU -2.5 | SP+ projection: WVU by 3.1 | FPI projection: Pitt by 1.0

Appalachian State at East Carolina (4 p.m., ESPNU). East Carolina has played three FBS teams more than 30 times: Southern Miss, NC State and Appalachian State. This is the big rivalry game on ECU’s schedule, and thanks to a potentially fantastic defense, the Pirates have a chance to move to 3-0 for the first time since 2008. App, meanwhile, left Clemson punch-drunk after a jarring 66-20 loss to the Tigers last week. The Mountaineers need a bounce-back.

Current line: App State -2.5 | SP+ projection: ECU by 3.5 | FPI projection: ECU by 2.8

No. 18 Notre Dame at Purdue (3:30 p.m., CBS). Two years ago, Notre Dame fell to an awful Stanford team but responded with 10 wins in the next 11 games. Saturday’s loss to Northern Illinois might have been even more off-putting, but the Irish will need a similar response. We know nothing about how good Purdue is — the Boilermakers beat Indiana State 49-0 in their only game — but we’ll find out pretty quickly.

Current line: Irish -10.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 11.2 | FPI projection: Irish by 9.9

Tulane at No. 15 Oklahoma (3:30 p.m., ESPN). Through two games (against teams currently ranked 134th and 93rd in defensive SP+), Oklahoma’s offense ranks 129th in success rate and 108th in yards per play. If the Sooners don’t pick things up Saturday, they might not make it to next week’s big SEC debut against Tennessee with their unbeaten record intact. Tulane has overachieved against projections in both games so far and damn near took down Kansas State last week.

Current line: OU -14 | SP+ projection: OU by 15.2 | FPI projection: OU by 11.9

Coastal Carolina at Temple (2 p.m., ESPN+). Coastal has been pretty good — Tim Beck’s Chanticleers have overachieved against projections in both games and are beginning to look like Sun Belt contenders. But really, I’m including this game because I’m struggling to fathom how awful Temple is at the moment.

THE SP+ COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOP 764, WEEK 3

* WE HAVE A NEW NO. 764. Sorry, Oberlin.
* Ohio State -152 Oberlin (sorry again)
* Harding -2 UMass 😬 (HOWEVER, UMass -72 Massachusetts Maritime)
* Bridgewater -9 Bridgewater State
* Mount Union -1 Temple 😱 pic.twitter.com/ASjwFKFCkq

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 9, 2024

Each week on social media, I post my “Top 764,” which combines the SP+ ratings for every level from FBS to NAIA. Temple is not only last in FBS at the moment, the Owls have sunk below three Division II teams and two Division III teams. In their past 12 games against FBS opponents, they’re 1-11 with eight losses by at least 22 points. From 2015 to 2019, Temple averaged 8.6 wins per season and an SP+ ranking of 55.6; now the bottom has fallen out completely. And we don’t know that the Owls have hit rock bottom yet.

Current line: Coastal -17 | SP+ projection: Coastal by 25.8 | FPI projection: Coastal by 19.2

Saturday evening

Indiana at UCLA (7:30 p.m., NBC). With a new coach (Curt Cignetti) and a massive amount of new transfers — including quite a few players from Cignetti’s former employer, James Madison — Indiana was a mystery heading into 2024. The Hoosiers drastically overachieved against projections in beating FIU and Western Illinois, and now they’re road favorites in their first-ever matchup against new Big Ten mate UCLA. The Bruins began the year by nearly losing to Hawai’i. Was that just a slow start, or are quarterback Kurtis Rourke and the Hoosiers about to begin Big Ten play 1-0?

Current line: Indiana -3 | SP+ projection: UCLA by 2.5 | FPI projection: Indiana by 3.3

Colorado at Colorado State (7:30 p.m., CBS). Last time Colorado played Colorado State, the Buffaloes were the story of college football and survived one of the wackiest games of the season against the rival Rams. This time around, the Buffaloes are banged up and coming off a blowout loss to Nebraska. CSU still isn’t very good, but aside from a Week 9 home game against Cincinnati, this might be the last time Shedeur Sanders, Travis Hunter & Co. are favored this season. They can’t let this one go to waste.

Current line: CU -7.5 | SP+ projection: CU by 8.3 | FPI projection: CU by 13.7

No. 5 Ole Miss at Wake Forest (6:30 p.m., The CW). Ole Miss has very much looked the part of a top-five team against weak opposition, and it doesn’t appear the Rebels’ first 2024 road trip will provide them with much more resistance. Quarterback Hank Bachmeier and the Demon Deacons can put points on the board, but the Wake defense gave up 430 yards to Virginia last week. That translates to about 860 against Ole Miss.

Current line: Ole Miss -23 | SP+ projection: Ole Miss by 26.6 | FPI projection: Ole Miss by 19.9

UTSA at No. 2 Texas (7 p.m., ESPN). Texas has overachieved against SP+ projections by 12 points per game. UTSA, injured and reeling, has underachieved by 29 points per game. SP+ projects Texas as a 38-point favorite. Yikes. I’m not sure why I put this game on the list. Let’s move on.

Current line: Horns -33.5 | SP+ projection: Horns by 38.0 | FPI projection: Horns by 39.8

Late Saturday

San Diego State at California (10:30 p.m., ESPN). Cal hasn’t finished in the SP+ top 50 since 2015, but the Golden Bears are up to 48th following Saturday’s win at Auburn. They’ve got a pretty wicked pass defense at the moment, and they’ll face an SDSU team that was just shut out by Oregon State. The Bears have a good shot at their first 3-0 start in five years.

Current line: Cal -17.5 | SP+ projection: Cal by 16.8 | FPI projection: Cal by 21.0

BYU at Wyoming (9 p.m., CBSSN). In the last seven full seasons of the Craig Bohl era, Wyoming finished .500 or better every year and averaged an SP+ ranking of 79.6. Two games into the post-Bohl era, Jay Sawvel’s Cowboys are 0-2 and 122nd. If anything is going to snap Wyoming out of its stupor, it will be the sight of hated former conference rival BYU. The 2-0 Cougars are coming off a lovely win at SMU, but they’ll likely have to overcome a far more hostile environment this time around.

Current line: BYU -8.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 16.1 | FPI projection: BYU by 17.4

Smaller-school showcase

Let’s once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.

NAIA: No. 4 College of Idaho at No. 9 Montana Western (3 p.m., local streaming). I told you in the preseason to adopt College of Idaho for extreme entertainment purposes, and if you didn’t listen, you’ve missed the Yotes outscoring their first two opponents by a combined 110-7. Now comes a big test. Frontier Conference rival Montana Western is seeking revenge after losing to the Yotes twice last season by a combined nine points. Biggest game of the NAIA season so far. SP+ projection: Western by 3.5.

FCS: No. 15 Albany at No. 5 Idaho (4 p.m., ESPN+). Idaho has started the season beautifully. Jason Eck’s Vandals scared Oregon in Week 1, then beat Wyoming in Week 2 (with their backup QB, no less). Defensive end Keyshawn James-Newby already has five sacks for a defense that could be ready to dominate at the FCS level, and now comes a revenge opportunity: UAlbany returns to the Kibbie Dome after taking down the Vandals in last season’s FCS quarterfinals. SP+ projection: Idaho by 11.0.

D3: No. 1 North Central at No. 14 Aurora (7 p.m., local streaming). North Central’s 2024 season finally gets underway with a visit to a top-15 team. The Cardinals have gone 57-3 over the past four seasons, with four straight Division III title game appearances and two wins. And, um, according to the Top 764 above, they’re better than Temple. Let’s see just how much damage they intend to inflict this season. SP+ projection: North Central by 24.5.