In many US cities, violent crime will decline in 2024

A new report from the Major Cities Chiefs Association shows that the majority of U.S. cities whose law enforcement agencies provided preliminary data had lower violent crime rates between January and June of this year than during the same period in 2023.

The data represents figures for the first half of 2024 and comes after crime of almost all types declined in 2023, according to FBI data released earlier this year.

In the mid-year comparison report, the Major Cities Chiefs Association (MCCA), an organization of police chiefs representing population centers in the United States and Canada, examined preliminary local law enforcement data on murders, rapes, robberies and aggravated assaults in 69 American cities and counties for the first half of 2024.

Looking at all preliminary data from local law enforcement agencies across the country combined, there is an overall decrease in every category of violent crime compared to the first half of 2023. Overall, from January 1 to June 30, 2024, cities and counties recorded over 650 fewer murders, over 1,400 fewer rapes, nearly 3,000 fewer robberies, and over 7,500 fewer aggravated assaults than during the same period in 2023.

Looking at the areas individually, only 15 of the 69 cities and counties represented in the data reported an increase in murder rates. About 21 areas reported an increase in rape cases and 21 reported an increase in robberies. About 19 areas reported an increase in aggravated assault.

In a statement, MCCA Executive Director Laura Cooper told Spectrum News that while violent crime continues to be “down” in most of its local law enforcement agencies, overall murder and assault rates in the cities it monitors are still higher than they were in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic, when the murder rate skyrocketed. Cooper added, however, that there have been “significant declines” in both rape and robbery.

“The mid-year figures are encouraging, but there is still work to be done to get us to historic lows,” the statement concluded.

Attorney General Merrick Garland praised the MCCA figures in a statement Monday as “another indicator of a significant decline in violent crime in major cities across the country.”

“These updated data follow last year's historic decline in the murder rate across the country and one of the lowest violent crime rates in 50 years,” Garland's statement continued. “The work of the Department of Justice, along with our partners, to reduce violent crime is paying off.”

The report comes just three months before the presidential election in November. In recent election cycles, crime has been a major issue that Republicans have often tried to use against their Democratic opponents.

Before President Joe Biden withdrew his candidacy for a second term and endorsed his Vice President Kamala Harris, he frequently pointed to falling crime rates in 2022 and 2023 to counter Republican attacks that Democrats were “too soft on crime.”

The preliminary data for the first half of 2024 could give Harris, who has relied on her background as a former prosecutor and attorney general in her first three weeks as the Democratic presidential candidate, more basis to do the same.

Harris' campaign team celebrated the news, as well as the news that there were fewer encounters at the US-Mexico border – two lines of attack used by Republicans against the Democratic candidate.

“Crime is down. Border crossings are down,” said James Singer, a spokesman for Harris' campaign. “Donald Trump's angry tirades do not change the facts or the results. Under Trump, America was less safe and we saw unprecedented violence, chaos and division. Right now, America is stronger and safer thanks to the work of Vice President Kamala Harris and bipartisan public officials across the country. Violent crime is at record lows, the border is more secure and, unlike Donald Trump, the Vice President is committed to enforcing the law, not breaking it.”

Although the largest city, Atlanta, in the swing state of Georgia saw a slight increase in murder and rape rates in the first half of 2024 compared to the previous year, the Charlotte-Mecklenburg and Raleigh areas, both in the state of North Carolina, which Democrats are trying to turn blue this year, saw an increase in the murder rate.