Police chief data shows decline in violent crime in Oakland and San Francisco

OAKLAND, California. – Despite the persistent doom and gloom, a new nationwide survey of police chiefs brings some encouraging news from America's largest cities.

Major metropolitan areas such as Oakland and San Francisco have seen an overall 7% decline in violent crime this year.

The Major Cities Chiefs Association's mid-year violent crime report compares preliminary data collected during the first six months of 2023 and 2024 on reported violent crimes – murder, rape, robbery and aggravated assault – in the nation's largest cities. A total of 69 cities participated in the survey.

The survey did not examine why crime categories increased or decreased; it consists only of five pages of numerical data.

But the numbers back up statements made by Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao and San Francisco Mayor London Breed for months.

Thao faces a recall vote in November, largely because her critics blame her for the failed crime policy. Last week, the police union again called for her resignation.

“It's unfortunate that the POA is obviously playing politics,” Thao said in a video response to the union. “Right now, at this very sensitive time, we need to come together. We see that what we're working on in terms of the comprehensive approach to public safety is working.”

She added that her budget would prioritize public safety, fund new police academies and save 80 police positions.

Breed has claimed since January that crime in San Francisco has gone down, attributing it to the city's collaboration with state and federal partners and a prosecutor's office that holds criminals accountable after they're arrested.

“Everything is pointing downward,” Breed said in the spring. “Whether it's burglaries, car break-ins, whatever, rapes. Everything that happens in a big city like San Francisco is unbelievable.”

In the Bay Area, only San Jose saw an increase in two of the four violent crime categories: murder and aggravated assault.

Here is a breakdown of the survey:

Oakland

In Oakland, the number of reported homicides fell from 52 in 2023 to 47 this year, reaching the lowest level since the COVID pandemic – a decline of nearly 10 percent.

Oakland's murder rate per 100,000 residents is still far higher than the national rate – 10.77 in the city compared to 0.93 nationwide. San Jose and San Francisco were also slightly above the national rate, with murder rates of 1.55 and 2.10, respectively.

The number of robberies in Oakland fell from about 1,600 in 2023 to about 1,350 in 2024, according to the survey, while the number of aggravated assaults fell by about 100, from about 1,600 to 1,500. The most significant change was the robbery rate, which fell by nearly 15 percent.

San Francisco

San Francisco also saw a decline in violent crime, with 17 murders reported, bringing the number of homicides in the city of more than 800,000 residents down by more than 30 percent in the first half of 2023. At this time last year, the number was 25. The city also reported about 200 fewer robberies between this year and last year.

San Jose

In San Jose, where reported data did not include June numbers, murder and aggravated assault cases increased between last year and this year. The number of murders rose slightly from 13 last year to 15 this year, according to the survey. Aggravated assault cases also increased slightly, from 1,327 in 2023 to 1,356 in 2024, an increase of just over two percent.

The number of rapes reported in San José fell by almost 55 percent, from 344 to 155.

Sacramento

The number of violent crimes has also declined in Sacramento. In particular, the number of reports of aggravated assault in Sacramento has fallen from 1,400 in 2023 to 1,200 this year over the same period.