Donald Trump to be sentenced to prison in September, says Fox News columnist

Donald Trump will face prison in September if he is convicted of falsifying business records, a Fox News columnist said.

Andrew McCarthy, a senior fellow at the National Review Institute and a former assistant U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, said Trump will not actually be incarcerated even if he is sentenced to prison on Sept. 18, as the former president will likely be released on bail pending an appeal.

Instead, McCarthy said Judge Juan Merchan, who presided over the hush money trial and will announce Trump's sentence next month, will help Vice President Kamala Harris and the “media-democratic complex” portray Trump as a convicted felon who was sentenced to prison just weeks before Election Day in November.

Trump was the first U.S. president to be convicted of a crime after a New York jury found him guilty in May of 34 counts of falsifying business records. He has denied all charges and said he was a victim of political persecution. He is likely to appeal.

The sentencing date was originally set for July 11, but has been pushed back to September 18 as Merchan considers whether the Supreme Court's decision to grant Trump some immunity for official acts committed while in office will affect the hush money case.

In an article for Fox News, McCarthy suggested that “if we are to read the signs of the times,” Merchan would likely reject Trump's legal team's request for immunity.

“He said he plans to rule on Trump's immunity request by August 16,” McCarthy added.

The former president's lawyers argued that the evidence presented in the hush money trial, such as tweets and other communications, could be examples of official acts for which Trump could not be prosecuted or used as evidence, according to the Supreme Court.

“Merchan has already decided that he will deny Trump's request for immunity. Moreover, there is a strong likelihood that he will impose a prison sentence on Trump immediately afterward,” McCarthy said.

“The prosecution of Trump in New York was about politics, not justice. That's why we call it 'lawfare.' Prosecutors and judges don't care whether convictions are ultimately overturned on appeal.

“And it's not like Merchan is actually going to put Trump in jail. It's almost certain that Trump will be released pending bail appeal. So Merchan can make it seem like he's going to impose a big prison sentence without actually imposing any incarceration – at least for now and probably forever,” he added.

McCarthy said Merchan's “goal” was to help Harris, Trump's 2024 Democratic rival, label the Republican “a convicted felon sentenced to prison” starting Sept. 18, by which time “Americans in many states would have already begun voting, not least in the potentially decisive battleground of Pennsylvania.”

“Prepare for Merchan to reject Trump's immunity claim… and buckle up for the verdict on September 18,” McCarthy wrote.

Trump's legal team was asked for comment via email.

Other legal experts believe that Trump will not be sentenced to prison on September 18.

“I think a prison sentence is unlikely if it is a non-violent Class E felony the first time,” Gregory Germain, a law professor at Syracuse University, said previously News week.

“Any other defendant would receive a suspended sentence and I believe it will be very difficult for the judge to justify a prison sentence for a criminal record violation.”

Germain added that the detention of a presidential candidate weeks before an election would trigger a “constitutional crisis,” “and I would expect emergency motions to stay the ruling pending appeal.”