UFC 305 fight card preview, odds and predictions: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya

The UFC 305 pay-per-view fight card is fast approaching. The event will take place on Saturday, August 17th at the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. In the main event of the PPV card, UFC middleweight champion Dricus du Plessis puts his title on the line against two-time champion Israel Adesanya.

Du Plessis captured the UFC middleweight crown in January with a split decision win at UFC 292. Adesanya, the No. 2 fighter in the official UFC middleweight rankings, has not entered the Octagon since losing the title to Strickland in a lopsided unanimous decision loss at UFC 293 in September.

The UFC 305 main event will air on ESPN+ PPV on August 17 at 10 p.m. ET. Preliminaries will begin at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN, while early prelims will stream at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Below we take a detailed look at the main event of UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya.

career

Dricus du Plessis

Dricus du Plessis (21-2) joined the UFC in October 2020 as a 26-year-old with a record of 14-2. Before joining the UFC, Du Plessis had won titles with KSW and EFC. He made his debut against Markus Perez on the main card of a UFC Fight Night event in Abu Dhabi. Du Plessis knocked out Perez in the first round. He followed that win with a “Performance of the Night” KO victory over Trevin Giles in July 2021.

Those two wins earned him a chance against top-ranked veteran Brad Tavares. Du Plessis won that fight by decision. The win moved him into the top 15 of the division. A submission win in December 2022 over Darren Till moved Du Plessis to No. 10 in the division. He followed that up with a TKO win over No. 5-ranked Derek Brunson.

Working his way up the rankings, Du Plessis faced a tough test in his next fight at UFC 290 when he faced No. 2 seed Robert Whittaker. Du Plessis continued his rise, knocking out the former UFC champion in the UFC middleweight title eliminator and earning another Performance of the Night bonus.

More important than the bonus was the title shot that Du Plessis received for this victory. In January, he faced then-champion Sean Strickland and took the title from Strickland in a “Fight of the Night” bonus fight, where he won the bonus.

UFC 305 is Du Plessis' first attempt to defend his UFC title.

Israel Adesanya

Israel Adesanya (24-3) had a perfect record of 11-0 when he joined the UFC in 2018. The then 28-year-old had held titles at Hex Fight Series and AFC before joining the UFC. He had also fought twice for the Glory Kickboxing middleweight crown before focusing on MMA.

Adesanya's first fight was a “Performance of the Night” bonus, defeating Rob Wilkinson by knockout in a bloody battle. Following the win, Adesanya gave a memorable post-fight interview to UFC commentator Jon Anik.

Decision wins over Marvin Vettori and Brad Tavares put Adesanya in the division's top 10. A first-round TKO over Derek Brunson then catapulted him to No. 6. He followed that with a decision over the fading former UFC middleweight kingpin Anderson Silva.

That fight against Silva, which took place in February 2019 at UFC 234, was the last time Adesanya competed in a non-title fight with the UFC.

In his next fight, Adesanya won the interim UFC middleweight crown with a clear victory over Kelvin Gastelum. In October 2019, Adesanya was able to unify the titles with a KO victory over Robert Whittaker.

Title defense victories over Yoel Romero and Paulo Costa followed. Adesanya, who was looking to become a two-time UFC champion, moved up to light heavyweight for his next fight against then-UFC 205-pound titleholder Jan Blachowicz. Blachowicz handed Adesanya his first loss by defeating him by decision at UFC 259.

The middleweight champion rebounded from this setback with title defenses against Vettori, Whittaker and Jared Cannonier.

Next up for Adesanya was a rematch against the man who defeated him twice under the banner of glory, Alex Pereira, at UFC 281. Adesanya entered the fifth and final round of the fight with a lead on the scorecards, but was knocked out 2:01 into the round.

Adesanya took revenge in April 2023 at UFC 287 when he knocked out Pereira in the second round.

In his next appearance at UFC 293, Adesanya lost the belt to Strickland.

During his UFC career, Adesanya has won eight fight night bonuses and competed in 11 main event fights, including 12 if you count UFC 305. His 12-fight winning streak in the UFC middleweight division is just one fight shorter than Silva's UFC record of 13 fights in the 185-pound division.

UFC 305 Betting Odds: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya

The betting odds for the main event of UFC 305 have gotten significantly tighter as fight night approaches. Adesanya was a -186 favorite to Du Plessis at +144 when betting began for this fight. The fight is essentially a pick 'em right now, with Adesanya at -122 and Du Plessis at -110.

Key statistics

Du Plessis lands 6.49 significant strikes per minute with 50 percent accuracy. His strike defense is 55 percent and he is hit 4.77 times per minute. The champion averages 3.00 takedowns per 15 minutes with 51 percent accuracy. His takedown defense is 40 percent.

Adesanya lands 3.93 significant punches per minute with 48 percent accuracy. His strike defense is 56 percent and he takes 3.11 punches per minute. The former champion lands 0.05 takedowns per 15 minutes with 14 percent accuracy and his takedown defense is 77 percent.

Prediction and tip for the main event at UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya

This is a tough pick, but the champion has advantages in terms of pressure, tenacity and power. If Du can get Plessis Adesanya to follow his awkward lead throughout the fight, he should retain his title. The betting tip is for Du to beat Plessis Adesanya by decision.

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