The problem with Tinubu

Almost everyone thinks they know what is wrong with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his government except Tinubu himself. And to show that it is not just whining, there are plenty of examples that can be hammered into the president's head.

Inflation has risen from 22.2 percent in April 2023 to 33.7 percent a year later – and is still rising – while government attempts to contain it have been largely ineffective. Food inflation has almost doubled. The naira has been devalued by 70 percent in a year and poverty rates have risen dramatically even among the once prosperous urban population. Hardship has never been greater.

But that is not all. Where Tinubu promised to streamline the state parastatals, their number has actually increased. Talk of cutting government costs is being crushed by the wheels of lengthy executive convoys and an out-of-touch parliament.

Events across the continent, particularly in West Africa, where Nigeria is supposed to be a major economic power, offer little comfort. Under Tinubu's leadership – and some would even add, due to his misconduct – three countries – Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso – have withdrawn from ECOWAS, forming a group of rebellious Sahel states.

And on a continental level, Nigeria has fallen from being Africa's largest economy to fourth place – a blow that a country with an oversized ego is still struggling to cope with.

Crucify him

When someone asked for nails to crucify Tinubu, volunteers provided more than enough to cover every inch of his body, and there were bags full to spare. One is reminded that he brought his misery upon himself when he cut fuel subsidies on day one and attempted to unify the exchange rate without a clear plan.

That's a good thing. I can't comprehend some of the events of the last year. And I've lost count of how many times I've wondered if this is the same Tinubu I've known since 1998. Well, it's more or less the same Tinubu. It's the same Tinubu, almost equally seasoned and battered by age and circumstances in a country that has also changed to a far greater extent in the last almost three decades!

Tinubu ran for the post, so there are no excuses for why the country is in such misery. However, it is fair to say – at the risk of being attacked – that those condemning Tinubu grossly underestimate the determined, active efforts of vested interests – both inside and outside his government – that are bringing him down despite their best efforts.

The crux of the matter

His government's two most consequential decisions – the announcement of the abolition of fuel subsidies and the attempt to create a more transparent exchange rate system – hit a sore spot. The biggest beneficiaries, mainly rich, powerful and dangerous people across the country, but especially in the north, are determined to fight his government to a standstill.

The pattern of last week's #EndBadGovernance protests showed where poverty was most acute. But it also showed where misplaced anger and resistance to change existed.

The anger was directed at Tinubu's policies. But more than that, it was directed at sections of the northern elite who have underdeveloped and impoverished the region over the years, mainly by playing the ethnic and religious card and refusing to be held accountable. The same elite were in top form last week, handing out Russian flags to protesters and pontificating that Tinubu had lost his way.

The misery of the north

Things did not suddenly become difficult for the North under Tinubu. As Kingsley Moghalu said four years ago, when Nigeria overtook India as the poverty capital of the world under the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari, the North also unfortunately became the poverty capital of poverty capitals, with poverty rates in the North West reaching as high as 80 percent.

For decades, the elite has put politics and entitlement above production and responsibility. This has radicalized millions of young people without hope or a future. Their anger should have been directed against the elite responsible for the chaos.

Unfortunately, the same elite have stoked the discontent, capitalized on it, and portrayed it as evidence of Tinubu's unfitness for office. And people who used soldiers to suppress large sections of the civilian population during their time in office are now giving us lessons on how civilians deal with public protests. The truth is more nuanced.

The handling of the protests in several states has been incompetent, scandalous and inexcusable. Nothing justifies the use of live ammunition against predominantly unarmed people exercising their right to dissent. It is disgraceful that live ammunition was used to disperse predominantly unarmed crowds, killing around 13 people.

However, one should not dismiss the suspicion that people with sinister intentions have encouraged the violence in several northern states in order to destabilise Tinubu’s government and divert attention from their complicity in our current mess.

Elite Wars

One only has to look at those sections of the elite most affected by the abolition of subsidies and attempts to smooth over the chaos in the foreign exchange market to understand why they will not give up without a dirty fight, whatever the cost. Those who believe it is within their power to determine who governs and for how long have used the protests to fire warning shots showing what they intend to do, if not sooner, then by the next election.

Kenya, Britain and later Bangladesh are seen as role models for dealing with dissent and as examples of what can happen when a government does not listen to its people. While economic hardship is the common thread, citing these examples from Nigeria ignores the sinister role of interest groups who fear a prolonged loss of political power.

Insects inside

But to say that outsiders caused all of Tinubu's problems would be foolish. Amid the chaos of the past week, there were members of his cabinet who were more than happy that pressure might finally force the president to check his administration's “stinginess.” Under Buhari, the Ministry of Finance released quarterly capital reconciliations to ministries and government departments, and they were not accountable for them.

However, under Tinubu, the Ministry of Finance has tight controls on disbursements. Payments are only made after projects have been reviewed and certificates of completion issued. This is not the kind of thing that people accustomed to easy money would be happy about. The beneficiaries of the current arrangement will resist this change or stand idly by when the government is attacked.

Which team?

What worries me about the whole thing is the quality of Tinubu's cabinet and his inner circle. When he came to power last year, it was a joke to please certain interest groups, but today it is an embarrassment. He has paid them his debts with interest.

With few exceptions, his team is neither valuable to the country nor useful to a president in an emergency. Where did he get these people? And how long will he keep them as passengers on a train to nowhere, jeopardizing his reputation as an excellent talent hunter?

I suspect that the #EndBadGovernance protest will not be the last. One can only hope that lessons have been learned and concrete steps will be taken to implement them for the benefit of the citizens. This would be the greatest test of his presidency.