Arguments for the semifinalists from Cincinnati

CINCINNATI – The semifinals of the Cincinnati Open will take place Sunday, with world No. 1 Iga Swiatek and No. 3 Aryna Sabalenka adding a 12th round to their ongoing rivalry (11 a.m. ET).

On the other hand, No. 6 Jessica Pegula and Paula Badosa, winners of the first two hard-court events of the summer, will test their winning streaks against each other (1 p.m. ET).

Cincinnati: Results | Draws | Match Order

Swiatek continues to deliver remarkable numbers in the WTA 1000. With her convincing three-set victory over Mirra Andreeva in the quarterfinals, she extended her WTA 1000 winning streak to 15. With 30 wins this season, she is already the second best of all time behind Serena Williams, who achieved 36 wins in 2013. And with the matches in Beijing and Wuhan in the fall, Swiatek could even end up holding that record.

Sabalenka will overtake Coco Gauff and return to No. 2 in the PIF WTA rankings after Cincinnati, making this a de facto showdown between the Nos. 1 and 2. This is nothing new for Swiatek and Sabalenka, who dueled in two consecutive WTA 1000 finals during the clay court season.

Who will make it to the final in Cincinnati on Monday? We analyze the last four.

The Swiatek case

After her bronze medal at the Olympics, Swiatek's expectations for Cincinnati were nonexistent. Due to the lack of rest, the emotional recovery from Paris and the lightning-fast conditions on the hard court, the tour leader in match wins and titles vowed to take it easy this week.

“I played this tournament just to get a feel for the hard courts and see what I can do here, so I didn't expect much,” Swiatek said. “I wouldn't have minded losing my first match either, so it's nice to be back in the semifinals, because this year, especially after the Olympics and moving from clay courts, I didn't expect that.”

How Swiatek finds peace after a summer of chaos

Expectations may have been low, but Swiatek, ever the hard-working perfectionist, set high standards. It's the first time in over a year that she's dropped more than a set on her way to the semifinals of a tournament, a remarkable achievement considering she's reached 12 semifinals in that time (including the United Cup and the Olympics). Yet despite these setbacks, Swiatek has kept her cool and composed. This was particularly evident in her comfortable win over Mirra Andreeva in the quarterfinals.

She will need that clarity on Sunday against Sabalenka. Swiatek leads the head-to-head 8-3 and has won her last three matches, including twice this year in the finals in Madrid and Rome. Two of Sabalenka's three victories came on hard court, but each required three full sets.

Swiatek is three years younger than Sabalenka, but the two have won the same number of hard-court titles in their careers: 12. They are also both Grand Slam hard-court champions: Sabalenka won two consecutive Australian Opens and Swiatek won the 2022 US Open. That's an impressive record for Swiatek and a stern reminder that she is not a one-surface talent.

“I think people only focus on the Grand Slams and forget about the rest,” Swiatek said. “But honestly, I think we play great on both courts, clay and hard, and she plays great on grass. I don't play great on grass.”

“Honestly, I think it's just a small mistake that people make when they think of us, but it doesn't really matter. Some surfaces will suit her better, and some will be a little easier for me. That's life, that's our technology. In the end, it's more [about the] physically, how we play tennis and where it is easier for us to play and where it is not.”

The Sabalenka case

Two players have fought their way quickly and quietly through the Cincinnati draw without dropping a set – and both will be considered underdogs on Sunday. Sabalenka is one of them. After being forced to retire from Wimbledon due to a rotator cuff injury, Sabalenka is riding high on momentum for the US Open, where she finished runner-up last year.

With straight-set victories over Elisabetta Cocciaretto, Elina Switolina and 10th seed Liudmila Samsonova, Sabalenka is in her first WTA 1000 hard court semifinal since, believe it or not, last year in Cincinnati. In fact, Cincinnati has become Sabalenka's most successful tournament, the only one in which she has reached four semifinals.

Sabalenka expressed the same sentiments as Swiatek when assessing her 12th career duel against Swiatek. There are no secrets between the two. Sabalenka will look to dictate with her baseline strength, and Swiatek will do everything in her power to parry and counter with her own impressive arsenal.

Sabalenka was quick to reject the general opinion that the current conditions would benefit her. She takes nothing for granted.

“I wouldn't say that the surface can really help you to win against the world number one,” Sabalenka said. “Of course there can be small advantages.”

“But against a player like Iga, I feel like I have to focus on myself, on my game, and not expect the surface to give me an advantage and help me win this match.”

Earlier this year, Sabalenka came within one point of beating Swiatek on the Pole's favourite surface, losing 7-5, 4-6, 7-6(7) in the final in Madrid. It was a remarkable performance from Sabalenka that set her up for success on Sunday.

The Pegula case

Midway through the second set of her quarterfinal against Leylah Fernandez, it looked like Pegula had given everything she could. She was playing her third match in the last 30 hours after winning the National Bank Open in Toronto last week. She led 7-5, 4-0 but was exhausted. And before she knew it, she was in the third set.

Endurance athletes have a term for this: “bonking.” It would have been understandable if the 30-year-old American had immediately admitted defeat. But Pegula is made of tougher stuff.

“I'm definitely tired, I'm just tired,” Pegula said after scoring a win over Fernandez in three hours. “It would be nice to sleep, go to bed super early and catch up on some sleep.”

“I had a pretty crazy schedule with a lot of night games in Toronto and then the quick turnaround here, with two [matches in] a day, waiting all night, being cancelled and then finishing late again yesterday, although I didn't go to bed until around midnight or 12:30 a.m.”

Pegula can finally sleep early before competing in her second consecutive WTA 1000 semifinal. Despite her exhaustion, Pegula is currently playing the best tennis of her season and is just one win away from equalling the longest winning streak of her career at nine matches.

“But I actually feel good, I'm moving really well and I think that's something that's helped me over the last few weeks. I feel like my movements have improved and I think that helps the mental side as well.”

The Badosa case

In March, doctors told Badosa her days in tennis were numbered. The stress fracture in her back that had kept her out of the sport for six months was still causing her unbearable pain. In a last-ditch effort, she underwent cortisone treatment. Slowly but surely, the pain subsided, allowing Badosa to finally return to the physical, combative tennis that had brought her to number two in the world rankings just two years ago.

“I remember thinking at the beginning of the first month, you can't go into a third set because you won't be able to play the next day because you won't be ready for it,” Badosa said this week. “That helps a lot now. Today, for example, I had that moment in the second set, but I remember thinking, it's OK. You still have a third set and it doesn't matter if you go into a fight there because the next day you'll feel OK now.”

“I saw that especially in Washington, where I had tough games. That allows me to relax a bit on the court and I can play more freely.”

Badosa won her first title in over two years two weeks ago at the Mubadala Citi DC Open and is now in her first WTA 1000 semifinal since Indian Wells 2022. Like her good friend Sabalenka, she has not lost a set this week, scoring wins against Peyton Stearns, Anna Kalinskaya, Yulia Putintseva and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

To reach her first WTA 1000 final since winning Indian Wells in 2021, Badosa will need to record her first-ever win over Pegula and her first top-10 win on hard court since beating Barbora Krejcikova in Sydney in 2022.