“Trump should shake”: Pollsters cannot find women for focus group, causing problems for Republicans

Veteran Republican pollster Frank Luntz said in a CNBC interview last week that “the issues and conditions” that have long been dear to the hearts of many voters – such as inflation, crime and immigration – “favor Donald Trump,” and therefore the ex-president should “win this election.”

However, The Hill reported that Luntz noted that he was seeing “a 'broad shift' in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 polls.”

In an opinion piece published in the LA Times on Monday, August 19, writer Jill Lawrence explains why.

READ MORE: JD Vance: “I don’t believe the polls”

The The art of the political deal: How Congress overcame gridlock against all odds Author writes:

In real America inflation relaxes, crime is down and Democrats can convincingly argue that the border would be far safer and more orderly if Trump had not scuttled a tough, bipartisan immigration package negotiated by a conservative senator and approved from both Harris and President Biden.

In other news from planet Earth, the election results of the last four years have made it clear that the “big lie” Election denial is not a winner, Abortion bans are no winners and Trump has Problems with enough party colleagues in the Republican Party to put him in a difficult position in a contested presidential race like Pennsylvania.

In addition to her own insights, Lawrence also shares what author, strategist and election data analyst Mike Madrid, who never bet on Trump, says is blocking the success of Trump and 2024 Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance.

“There are two major obstacles in their path, and they are related,” says Madrid. The first “is the turning away of women – particularly white, college-educated Republican women – from Trump and the GOP,” writes Lawrence.

“The second obstacle is that Trump and Vance are denying reality,” as both Republican candidates claimed this month that abortion is not an issue that affects women.

READ MORE: Analysis shows that the “historically unpopular” Vance is only making things worse for Trump

“Trump and the Republicans should tremble at the prospect of voters who support reproductive rights,” Lawrence stressed. “Not 'everyone' wanted abortion to be returned to the states. In fact, the Kaiser Family Foundation, in a new, stunning Survey of 3,901 women of childbearing age74% were against leaving abortion to the states – including 53% of republican in the survey,” she adds.

Lawrence also noted: “Luntz said on CNBC on Wednesday that Harris had changed the electorate – undecided voters had defected to her, and voters who once weakly favored Trump had become undecided. And he said the change, while statistically small, could mean victory for Democrats.”

The GOP pollster said: “I'm trying to do a focus group tonight for a major news network with undecided voters under the age of 27. And I can't recruit young women for that because They do not exist than undecided voters.”

READ MORE: “Pure nonsense”: Trump tried to cheat his way through a question about an abortion drug

Lawrence's full commentary is available at this link (subscription required).