Survey: Most Americans believe inflation is higher than it actually is

Most Americans believe inflation is currently higher than it actually is, according to a new poll. A discrepancy between economic perceptions and reality could hurt Vice President Kamala Harris's chances of winning the election.

Inflation was 2.9 percent in July, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on August 14. A report released by YouGov on Wednesday found that 31 percent of respondents say inflation is between two and four percent, but two-thirds believe that number is higher.

Eleven percent of respondents believe that the inflation rate is currently above 16 percent. The inflation rate in the United States has not come close to 16 percent since 1980, when it reached 14.8 percent. The highest inflation rate was recorded in June 1920 at 23.7 percent.

Inflation and the economy were consistently the most important issues for voters ahead of the presidential election in November.

In a separate YouGov poll conducted in early August, nearly a quarter of respondents said inflation and prices were the “most important” issue, followed by 13 percent who said jobs and the economy were the most important issue.

These results could pose difficult questions for Harris as she tries to beat former President Donald Trump in the race for the White House.

“US elections are won or lost by the economy – and by the perceived impact of each party on the wallets of Jo and Jess America,” said Mark Shanahan, a UK-based politics lecturer Newsweek.

“The U.S. economy is doing well on a global scale, and Biden's fight to reduce inflation is starting to pay off,” he said. “But fighting inflation doesn't actually lead to lower prices – and while consumers feel like they're paying too much at the pump or in the store, it gives Trump an opportunity to score points.”

“The Republicans can attack broadly. Harris and Walz must actually show how they want to fight price gouging, make medicines more affordable and generally reduce the cost of living.”

“No matter how good the economy may be at the macro level, if they cannot demonstrate positive impacts on individuals, the Democrats give the Republican Party a lot of scope for attack,” he added.

“Inflation is a key election issue, even though other economic indicators are generally strong,” said Iwan Morgan, professor emeritus of US studies at University College London.

“High food and gasoline prices are putting a strain on the pockets of many Americans who are wondering whether inflation has been brought under control,” he said. “This issue could hurt Harris's prospects for good poll numbers unless she finds a way to convince people of future economic improvement.”

Newsweek The Harris team emailed outside of normal business hours for comment.

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