Trump drastically increases the number of annual fentanyl deaths

“We lose 300,000 people a year to fentanyl coming across our border. We had the number down to its lowest point, and now it's worse than ever.”

— Former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally on July 24 in Charlotte, North Carolina

Former President Donald Trump recently claimed at a campaign rally that more than 300,000 Americans die each year from the synthetic opioid drug fentanyl. The number of fentanyl overdoses was the “lowest” during his administration and has skyrocketed since then.

“We lose 300,000 people a year to fentanyl coming across our border,” Trump told supporters at a July 24 campaign rally in Charlotte, North Carolina. “We had the number down to the lowest point and now it's worse than ever,” he said.

Trump's numbers appear to have no basis in fact. Government statistics put the number of drug overdose deaths at 100,000 to 110,000 per year, with opioid deaths at around 81,000. That's enough for the government to call opioid-related overdoses an “epidemic,” but the number doesn't even come close to the number cited by Trump.

And while the number of opioid deaths has increased since Trump left office, the claim that it was the “lowest” during his term is false.

The numbers are high, but far from Trump’s claim

Karoline Leavitt, the Trump campaign's national press secretary, declined to comment specifically on the source of Trump's statistics. Instead, she emailed KFF Health News with several bullet points about the opioid crisis under the headline: “DRUGS ARE FLOWING INTO OUR COMMUNITIES ACROSS HARRIS' OPEN BORDER.”

One of these entries noted that there were “112,000 fatal drug overdoses” last year and linked to a report from NPR that reported this fact — directly contradicting Trump's own claim of 300,000 fentanyl deaths. Furthermore, the number reported by NPR is an overall number, and not just for fentanyl-related deaths.

According to recent government figures, there were a total of 107,543 drug overdose deaths in 2023, with an estimated 74,702 involving fentanyl. These numbers are consistent with what experts on the subject told KFF Health News.

“The number of actual deaths is probably significantly higher,” said Andrew Kolodny, medical director of the Opioid Policy Research Collaborative at Brandeis University, noting that many such overdose deaths are not recorded by government researchers.

“But I don’t know where to get this figure of 300,000,” Kolodny added.

Trump's claim that the number of deaths from fentanyl was the “lowest” during his term in office and is now higher than ever is also false.

Overdose deaths — particularly from synthetic opioids such as fentanyl — began rising steadily in the 1990s. When Trump took office in January 2017, the number of overdose deaths involving synthetic opioids was about 21,000. By January 2021, when he left the White House, that number was nearly 60,000, data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Vital Statistics System show. Deaths involving synthetic opioids continued to rise even after Trump left office.

“It is true that more Americans are dying [of opioids] than ever before,” Kolodny said. “But if you look at the trends during the Trump administration, the number of deaths just got worse and worse.”

However, over the last year, statistics show that the number of overdoses has stagnated or declined slightly. However, it is too early to say whether this trend will continue.

Given that Trump made his claims about fentanyl in the context of the southern border “invasion,” it's worth noting that, according to the U.S. government, the vast majority of fentanyl smuggled into the country illegally comes through legal ports of entry. In addition, nearly 90% of those convicted of fentanyl drug trafficking in 2022 were U.S. citizens, an analysis by the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank, found. This year, U.S. citizens were convicted of fentanyl trafficking at 12 times the rate of immigrants who were in the U.S. without authorization, the analysis found.

Our verdict

Trump said: “We lose 300,000 people every year to fentanyl coming across our border. We had the number down to the lowest it's been, and now it's worse than ever.”

The number of annual deaths from fentanyl in the United States has increased since he left office, but Trump's claim that the number is 300,000 is baseless and contradicted by the figures provided by his press secretary.

Trump is wrong to claim that overdose rates are at their lowest during his administration. In addition, Trump continues to link the fentanyl trade to illegal immigration – a claim that is not supported by statistics.

We rate Trump’s claim as “Pants on Fire!”

Our sources

Cato Institute, “89% of convicted fentanyl dealers in 2022 were U.S. citizens,” August 23, 2023.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “US overdose deaths to decline in 2023 for first time since 2018,” May 15, 2024.

C-SPAN, Former President Trump's campaign in Charlotte, North Carolina, July 24, 2024.

Department of Homeland Security, Fact Sheet: DHS is on the Front Lines of the Fight Against Illicit Opioids, Including Fentanyl, December 22, 2023.

Email exchange with Karoline Leavitt, national press secretary for Donald J. Trump for President, July 29, 2024.

National Vital Statistics System, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, preliminary drug overdose death figures, July 7, 2024.

NPR, “In 2023, Fentanyl Overdoses Ravaged the U.S., Sparking a New Culture War,” December 28, 2023.

Telephone interview with Andrew Kolodny, medical director of the Opioid Policy Research Collaborative at Brandeis University, July 31, 2024.