Vinyl is more expensive than ever. Are prices finally stabilizing?

Anyone who has purchased a record or CD in recent years knows full well that physical music products are not exempt from the inflation that plagues U.S. consumers.

In fact, the price of a vinyl record in the US rose by 25.5% from 2017 to 2023, according to BillboardAnalysis of RIAA data shows that the increase is slightly higher than that of the Consumer Price Index, which rose 24.3% over the same period. CD prices fared slightly better, rising only 20.4%.

While music subscription prices are rising, consumers can expect physical music prices to remain fairly stable in the future: Insiders familiar with Billboard say vinyl prices will remain stable in 2024 after the COVID-19 pandemic caused supply chain problems and increased the cost of everything from raw materials to labor.

As one music distribution manager put it, “those supply chain issues are leveling off.” As a result, lead times have improved dramatically as manufacturers work through their pandemic-era backlogs. “I have a feeling prices will stabilize as well,” the manager says.

“Our manufacturing prices have been stable for some time,” says Bill HeinCEO of Pressing Business. Freight costs can be improved if a buyer books flexible dates, Hein says, and more of his U.S. shipments are using reliable ocean freight. “In general, both air and ocean freight are more predictable now than they were during the lockdown era, and pricing is generally better.”

Outside of the music business, rising prices for everyday goods are a fact of life. Americans are fed up with inflation eating away at their wages, are fighting back against the high cost of basic food items, and companies are responding by trying to lower prices.

In July, CEO of PepsiCo Ramon Laguarta indicated that consumers were fed up with rising prices for more than two years. “Some parts of the [Frito-Lay] “The portfolio needs to be adjusted,” he said during a conference call on July 11. Total sales volume fell 4% last quarter, and the company's North American beverage sales fell 3%. PepsiCo will respond, Laguarta said, by offering better deals and more advertising. For some consumers, Laguarta added, “we need new entry-level prices.”

Companies across the economy are sharing PepsiCo's experience with price-weary shoppers. Walmart is offering more short-term discounts. Target has cut prices. Fast-food giants McDonald's, Wendy's and Taco Bell are wooing customers with discount packages and value-priced menus. And because it's an election year, Vice President Kamala Harristhe Democratic presidential candidate, has proposed a federal ban on price gouging in the food and grocery sector.

Because vinyl prices are heavily dependent on manufacturing costs, there is little that can prevent prices from rising without sellers losing profits. Vinyl dealers set prices based on wholesale prices and their need to cover overheads and other expenses. Artists at record labels have to pay the wholesale price for their physical goods and have no control over pressing and printing costs, says Paul Steelemanaging partner at Triple 8 Management. “The physical prices for our nearly 30 artists have remained largely the same for a decade, with small inflation-related increases here and there,” he says.

But inflation aside, there are other factors that could drive up the average selling price. Physical music is increasingly becoming a luxury item – a high-priced collector's item with the packaging to match. Artists often release multiple versions of LPs with colored vinyl. And albums released today often have the expensive clamshell packaging that was common in the '70s.

The way music is released in the streaming era is also driving up prices. Artists take advantage of the unlimited space on streaming platforms by filling albums with more songs at no extra cost. Billboard As noted last year, the average number of songs on top 10 albums increased from 13.2 in 2014 to 19.1 in 2022. A double album on vinyl is more expensive, and as one executive notes, releasing multiple songs on one album often – but not always – requires paying higher mechanical royalties to songwriters and publishers.

In fact, some of the most popular vinyl records today are double or triple LPs. Post Malone's 18-track album on two LPs F-1 billion sells for $45.89 on Amazon and more at other retailers. Zach Bryan's 34-track American Heartbreak has three LPs and a list price of $44.98. And that's not even including the more extravagant reissues, like a 2-LP/2-CD/1-Blu-ray package for Van Halen's For illicit sexual intercourse the list price is $99.98.

Despite the increase in the price of vinyl records in recent years, sales have not yet declined. Will this continue? The answer to this question is likely to be younger consumers who have less disposable income. Michael KurtzCo-founder of Record Store Day, says vinyl, as a high-end collectible, is the hardest thing for younger consumers to get their hands on. While Record Store Day has helped to get a new generation excited about vinyl records, younger people don't have as much money and are buying less. “18 months ago, a young customer would come to the checkout with two or three records,” says Kurtz. “Now they come with one or maybe two.”

Catalog titles are often the cheaper option and help offset the price increase. Michael Jackson's thriller is available for under $25. Fleetwood Mac's long-running hit Rumors is offered in both affordable and deluxe versions. Rhino Records' Now running A series of compilations for artists from The Stooges to Gram Parsons to John Prine costs $19.99.

The good news – for all consumers – is that price growth is returning to historical norms. The average monthly inflation rate in the US reached 4.7% in 2021, 8.0% in 2022 and 4.1% in 2023. This year, the average monthly increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) through July is only 3.2%. If it looks like vinyl prices will continue to climb, packaging and the increasing prevalence of the double album are likely to be to blame.