Floyd Shivambu's defection shocks South Africa's EFF and Julius Malema

The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), a major figure in South African politics for more than a decade, have been deeply shaken by the defection of their deputy leader Floyd Shivambu to the young party of former President Jacob Zuma – uMhkonto weSizwe (MK), or Spear of the Nation.

Shivambu was seen as the EFF's ideological guru, while party leader Julius Malema assumed the role of commander-in-chief – or “chief shouter,” as his critics called him – with his fiery rhetoric calling for the nationalization of white-owned land and mines and a “decolonization” of education.

The duo seemed on course for success, with the EFF securing the support of South Africa's growing youth, who were frustrated by the slow pace of political and economic reforms since the end of the racist apartheid system in 1994.

However, in the parliamentary elections in May, the EFF suffered a serious setback: instead of achieving its goal of rising from the third largest party in the country to the second largest, it fell to fourth place.

MK proved to be a political arch-enemy, as did the ruling African National Congress (ANC), by winning votes from both parties in the first election it contested, securing third place.

“MK cannibalised the ANC and took votes away from the EFF. This changed the course of South African politics and led to the ANC losing its parliamentary majority for the first time since 1994,” William Gumede, a scholar at the School of Governance at Wits University in Johannesburg, told the BBC.

Recognising the political significance, Mr Shivambu defected to MK last week, causing the biggest rift within the EFF since its formation 11 years ago.

This was a personal blow for Malema, as the two had, as young men full of political energy, jointly founded the EFF after being expelled from the ANC – ironically then under the leadership of Zuma.

They had challenged the authority of a president deeply rooted in traditional values ​​of respect for elders and were thrown out after being accused of sowing divisions and bringing the party into disrepute.

“The EFF took almost the entire youth wing of the ANC with it and also dominated student politics on universities across South Africa. Such was the party's appeal to young people,” says Paddy Harper, a journalist with the South African newspaper Mail & Guardian.

“Malema had the charisma to gain support and Shivambu had the intelligence to give the movement an ideological direction,” he told the BBC.

“With its dissolution, the EFF will enter a period of unrest. This will be felt across South Africa, from universities to Parliament, as the EFF seeks to prevent itself from losing even more support to MK.”

However, political analyst Moeletsi Mbeki said the split would actually “strengthen” Malema's position in the EFF as he would no longer face a “potential threat” to his power.

“The EFF is seen more as a cult led by Malema. In such a system, the leader is the leader. Period. Anyone who appears to be close to the leader will eventually become a victim,” he told the BBC.

The first public sign that the relationship was running into trouble came last year, when Malema paid glowing tribute to Shivambu, describing him as a thinker and then warning him not to plot against him.

“I have no mercy for people who do that to me. So don't ever try that to me.” Mr Malema was quoted as saying at a gala dinner:.

With Malema set to seek re-election as party leader at the EFF conference in October, Shivambu, 41, appears to have decided it is time to move on.

MK made him national organiser – a downgrade from his role in the EFF, but still a senior post with responsibility for growing the party.

But, Harper said, it was unclear how he would get on with Zuma, given their past falling out and the fact that the former president was also a cult-like figure in MK, appointing and firing officials on a regular basis. In less than a year, the party has had three general secretaries.

“But there is also a view that the party is still finding its feet and will stabilise with its core leadership, which includes Zuma, John Hlophe, the accused judge who was appointed as his deputy, and Shivambu,” Harper said.

Another reason that may have tipped Mr Shivambu over the edge was that he and Mr Malema – despite their public personas as socialists and African nationalists – were at the centre of a major corruption scandal, he added.

They are accused of accepting a “congratulations” – that is, bribes – of around 16 million rand (US$9 million or £7 million) from the head of a now-liquidated bank after meeting him in a penthouse apartment in an upscale suburb of Johannesburg in 2017.

The allegation was made in a recently leaked witness statement by the bank's disgraced boss, Tshifhiwa Matodzi, after he pleaded guilty to 33 counts of corruption, theft, fraud, money laundering and organised crime, involving what investigators described as a “bank robbery”.

Both Mr Shivambu and Mr Malema have denied any wrongdoing, but with police investigations ongoing and their political rivals expected to keep up the pressure, the scandal is not going away anytime soon.

“This is the biggest corruption scandal the EFF has ever experienced and if the party had to make someone a sacrificial lamb, it would have been Shivambu – and certainly not Malema,” Harper said.

“So his move to MK makes sense as it gives him more protection. It's a bigger party full of people who have been accused of corruption – including Zuma himself.” The former president has denied any wrongdoing.

MK was also a natural political home for Mr Shivambu because its economic policies are similar to those of the EFF. Both advocate the expropriation of white-owned land and the nationalisation of mines and banks. These policies were adopted by many African states after their independence but were abandoned over 20 years ago when the Soviet Union collapsed.

“MK and EFF represent the old nationalist politics of Africa. They have completely lost touch with reality,” said Mbeki.

“State-owned enterprises in South Africa are huge, but they are collapsing due to mismanagement. This means a loss of jobs for the working class,” he added.

Professor Gumede expressed a similar view, saying that despite its existence for over a decade, the EFF had failed to gain a foothold in the South African trade union movement.

“Whether working class or middle class, older voters see chaos and confrontation in the EFF. They want the parties to work together to solve South Africa's problems because we have a power and water crisis, as well as high unemployment and crime,” said Professor Gumede.

That was the clear message of the election, he added, but both the EFF and MK had made a “strategic mistake” by not joining the government of national unity that President Cyril Ramaphosa formed after the election.

Mr Harper said that since the general election, MK had performed poorly in by-elections in Zuma's political backyard, KwaZulu-Natal.

“She is not involved in government and has done nothing but oppose the coalition government in the province. That is not what the voters want. They want the provision of basic services,” he said.

“As for the EFF, the ANC is currently in the process of getting rid of them as a coalition partner in cities like Johannesburg. So they are also on the brink.

“Logically, EFF and MP should strengthen their relationship to offer voters a viable alternative rather than competing with each other for members and voters,” Mr Harper added.