Why this Red Sox August trend is destroying their 2024 postseason hopes

Why does this happen to the Boston Red Sox every year now?

Sunday afternoon felt like a funeral at Fenway Park as the Red Sox blew a 4-0 lead to secure a sweep of the upstart Arizona Diamondbacks. Now 67-62, Boston is just five games over .500 for the first time since June 30. Months of hard work, for virtually nothing.

It was painful, but also somewhat expected. The Red Sox have made a habit of missing important series in August, and it's ruining their season for the third year in a row.

Although Boston has never entered August in a playoff spot in the last three years, it has always been a strong candidate. The schedule is getting tougher, the pitchers are getting more tired, and every big series at Fenway Park seems to end with a heartbreaking sweep.

There's some astonishing data behind that last point. The Red Sox have now been defeated at Fenway Park in August six times since 2022. It's a frightening trend that seems to have no real explanation.

In the last three August games, the Atlanta Braves, Toronto Blue Jays (twice), Houston Astros (twice) and Diamondbacks have all come to Fenway at the crucial moment and ruined the Red Sox's playoff chances. Overall, Boston is 13-24 wins at home in August over the last three seasons.

Why can't they beat the Fenway Faithful at such a crucial time of year? Well, there's no single culprit, but there are certainly some simple explanations.

First, the Red Sox pitching staff's performance in August has declined significantly each of the last three years. Their team ERA was 5.36 in August 2022, then 5.33 in 2023, and now 5.60 in 2024. Every year, Boston runs into the ground with a thin pitching staff, and by the end of August, it's fallen to pieces.

Second, the Red Sox seem to be psychologically faltering this time of year. Whether it was missing the game-winning run with no outs and the bases loaded against Jordan Romano, Alex Verdugo coming in late to the game, or Masataka Yoshida getting thrown out of the game while attempting a triple, Boston's play is sloppy, and it seems to be showing in the later stages of the “dog days.”

Whatever is plaguing them, the Red Sox have virtually no time to figure it out. They play five more games over the next four days at Fenway, against the last-place Blue Jays club, which has been quietly playing solid baseball of late.

All season long, it felt like the Red Sox were building toward something special, even if they didn't make it to October this time, but now it feels like that solid foundation is about to crumble.

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