New England is famous for its foliage. Will 2024 live up to the hype?

In the fall, New England can expect a “great show” of leaves. Or the leaves come late and die early, a result of climate change and difficult weather conditions. But one thing remains true – the region's unique features provide the stage for a show every fall, regardless of the weather.

Experts disagree on exactly what fall foliage will look like across the region. As Bill Keeton, a professor at the University of Vermont, says, predicting foliage so far from its peak is an inaccurate statement.

“Every year it's kind of a mystery as to exactly how this is all going to unfold, and then, boom, every year there's this big foliage reveal,” he said in a phone interview.

But even if the more pessimistic forecast comes true, there is no great reason for leaf-gazers to worry.

“It's always spectacular, no matter what,” Keeton said. “We're talking about subtle differences from year to year.”

An improvement over last year?

In an article in Yankee Magazine, foliage expert Jim Salge predicted a rebound in foliage color in the region after a wet summer led to a weaker season in 2023.

In Salge's view, most trees, with the exception of those in northern Vermont and Connecticut, have had a relatively stress-free spring and summer without much rain. Salge said the risks to that forecast include sustained warmth in September, as well as persistent humidity and tropical weather conditions that would activate latent fungi.

“We expect northern New England's color display to develop in time with the onset of cooler weather compared to historical averages,” Salge wrote. “Colors should be bright and trend toward a redder year with ample sunshine. Colors should last longer than normal before fading and slowly declining.”

But Keeton, a professor of forest ecology and forestry, said he sees some early warning signs of the coming foliage change.

The key factor that influences what the leaves look like in New England is, to put it simply, the difference between daytime and nighttime temperatures.

“When the evenings and nights get cooler in the fall but the days are still warm, that's a signal for the trees to start shutting down and preparing for winter,” he said.

With the effects of climate change, fall has declined in New England, according to Keeton. Specifically, climate change has caused leaves to arrive later and then fall earlier.

Now Keeton is worried he's experiencing some of the same conditions that led to a disappointing 2023.

“It seems our trees are under some stress, and I've seen the leaves turn brown and fall off much sooner than I expected,” he said.

Height is a factor

It's not just the weather in New England that gives the region such spectacular waterfalls every year, but also the topography.

Keeton says the mountain ranges that stretch across many states in the Northeast – from the Green Mountains in Vermont to the Adirondacks in New York – provide tremendous diversity in the landscape, resulting in what he described as a “mosaic of color,” where trees turn different colors at different times of the year.

But according to Keeton, the low to mid-elevation areas actually offer the best views because of the diverse tree populations there.

“Deep valleys surrounded by high peaks and mountain ranges provide these really vibrant colors throughout the valley floor and … up to the mountain ranges,” he said.

Salge made a similar prediction in Yankee Magazine, saying the best areas would be the Berkshires in western Massachusetts, the central Green Mounts, most of the White Mountains, and western Maine.

Eastern Massachusetts may get a glimpse of a “good show” for the first time in several years, Salge wrote, calling it a “bonus.”