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Best-case and worst-case scenarios for the 2024 Oklahoma State football season

STILLWATER – Hopes are high at Oklahoma State as football season approaches.

The Cowboys, ranked 18th, won 10 games last year and returned nearly all of their key playmakers for their season opener against FCS No. 1 South Dakota State on Saturday at 1 p.m. at Boone Pickens Stadium.

With a combination of talent and experience that is hard to beat, the Pokes see great things in their future.

But no college football season goes quite as expected.

Here's a look at the best-case scenarios and worst-case scenarios for the Cowboys in every game this season:

More: How Oklahoma State Football's Offensive Line Combines Talent, Depth and Unmatched Experience

August 31: vs. South Dakota State, 1 p.m. (ESPN+)

Best case: A cruise-control win. The Jackrabbits have won 29 straight games and have a quarterback who won the FCS version of the Heisman Trophy last year. The Cowboys, however, have enough talent to control this game.

Worst case: The obvious answer is a loss, and the Pokes are only 9.5 point favorites, so the bookies aren't expecting a runaway victory. If they don't lose this game, long-term injuries would be the next bad possibility.

September 7: vs. Arkansas, 11 a.m. (ABC)

Best case: Although the Razorbacks bring a slew of SEC talent to Stillwater, they are projected to finish in the bottom quarter of the league, so OSU will be able to control this game. The renewal of this regional rivalry creates excitement, as there will be four matchups over the next decade.

Worst case: A loss here would hurt. Probably more than a Week 1 loss to SDSU. And Arkansas has the athletic ability to expose some potential holes in OSU's defense.

September 14: in Tulsa, 11 a.m. (ESPN2)

Best case: The ideal scenario would be for the Pokes to experience some adversity on the road before Big 12 play to get a taste of what's ahead, but still pull out an easy win.

Worst case: The Cowboys have won nine straight games in this series, but the last two by single digits. OSU needed true freshman Shane Illingworth to rescue them after Spencer Sanders sprained his ankle in the 2020 season opener, a 16-7 victory. A year later, OSU won 28-23. So there are no guarantees here.

September 21: against Utah

Best case: Even a narrow win is very valuable here. In the race to the Big 12 Championship Game, a win over Utah will be crucial not only in terms of record, but also in potential tiebreaker scenarios – because the folks at OSU know how messy those can be.

Worst case: A demoralizing loss. Losing this game would hurt, but it wouldn't destroy OSU's long-term goals. A loss would kill the good vibe of a highly anticipated season.

September 28: at Kansas State

Best case: It was the win over Kansas State last year that turned the Cowboys' season around for the better. While they should be in a better position this year heading to Manhattan, Kansas, than they were last year when they hosted the Wildcats, a win would be just as valuable. Additionally, wins over Utah and K-State in the Big 12 league would put the Pokes in prime position for the conference title game early on.

Worst case: No explanation is needed here. The Cowboys have already experienced the worst possible scenario in a trip to Kansas State in 2022 (a 48-0 loss, in case your brain has blocked out that memory).

October 5: against West Virginia

Best case: This is a crucial game. Regardless of what happens in the two weeks leading up to it, this game will set the stage for a late October/early November schedule full of away games against mid-major teams. A comfortable win before an open week would be ideal to keep the Cowboys focused on the second half of the season.

Worst case: This is a team to be feared. Among the teams considered to be in the middle of the pack in the Big 12, the Mountaineers are one of the dark horses. And with two extremely important conference games just behind them, the Cowboys need to avoid any kind of mental or emotional disappointment.

More: How much does Oklahoma State Football spend on NIL? Mike Gundy explains

Oct. 19: at BYU, 9:15 p.m. (ESPN)

Best case: This will be the only new venue for a Cowboys away game this season, and Cougar fans will surely be excited to have such a big opponent on a Friday night, so OSU's goal is to enjoy the scenery, get a win, and enjoy a Cougar Tail pastry or two before heading home.

Worst case: OSU hasn't played a Big 12 away game on a Friday night since Iowa State in 2011. The worst-case scenario would be a repeat of the fate that befell the Cowboys that night at Jack Trice Stadium.

October 26: at Baylor

Best case: OSU has only had back-to-back road games once, and the schedule is convenient because that trip comes after a Friday game. That means OSU has an extra day to recover after BYU before heading to Waco. So despite the busy travel schedule, the Pokes should be able to pick up another win. And any road win in the Big 12 is a good win.

Worst case: Baylor coach Dave Aranda is at the top of the list of Big 12 coaches on the hot seat. He could be on shaky ground come late October. But a win against OSU — especially if the Pokes are still on a roll — could be his saving grace.

November 2: against Arizona State

Best case: It's the home game against one of the easiest opponents of the season. Win big and advance.

Worst case: It's a home game against one of the easiest opponents of the season. Depending on the circumstances, a loss could ruin the Cowboys' season.

November 9: at TCU

Best case: Away games in Fort Worth, Texas, have not been particularly enjoyable for OSU in recent years, so at the end of a series with three away games in four weeks, only victory will count.

Worst case: OSU coach Mike Gundy has rated TCU's chances highly to rebound from a down season and get back in the race for the Big 12 title. There could be a lot on the line by the time OSU heads down I-35. A loss could put OSU on the wrong side of the standings.

More: Could Ayo Shotomide-King be the next gem discovered among the receivers of the Oklahoma State football team?

November 23: against Texas Tech

Best case: OSU quarterback Alan Bowman will play his final home game against the team that started his college career seven years ago, and it looks like he's in for a big day that could lead to an easy win for OSU.

Worst case: Like West Virginia, Texas Tech is a dark horse Big 12 team. This will be Senior Day for many of the Cowboys' stars, so they'll need to keep their emotions in check. If the Pokes aren't mentally focused, a loss here wouldn't be a huge surprise.

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Nov. 29: in Colorado, 11 a.m. (ABC)

Best case: What kind of team will Colorado be when Black Friday rolls around? It's impossible to say considering the Deion Sanders-led Buffaloes. Whatever the case, there's a good chance the Cowboys need a win to secure a spot in the Big 12 title game — or at least stay in the running.

Worst case: Colorado has the individual talent to compete with many teams. Boulder, Colorado, with its high elevation and loud crowd, offers a unique atmosphere, especially when Colorado is playing good football late in the year. A loss could be the breaking point for OSU's Big 12 title hopes.

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