If Trump is denied immunity in New York, he may have to initiate a lightning trial to avoid prison

In September, all eyes will be on New York, where Judge Juan Merchan will issue two decisions that could change the future of President Trump—and America. However, Trump could file an unprecedented and lightning-fast appeal to avoid a prison sentence.

On September 16, Judge Merchan is expected to decide whether the Supreme Court’s landmark immunity decision in Trump against the United States overturns the 45th president's guilty verdicts on 34 counts in the Manhattan hush money case. Two days later, he will sentence Trump for those convictions, a ruling that could include a prison sentence.

Legal experts say a typical defendant with no criminal record would not be sentenced to prison, but Trump is no ordinary defendant and is deeply unpopular in Manhattan. He received just 12 percent of the vote in the 2020 general election and was recently ordered to pay financial damages in two civil cases.

As for the hush money case, all of Judge Merchan's rulings to date have been against Trump. He has formally requested three times that the judge recuse himself from the case due to alleged bias against his enemies. Judge Merchan denied his requests and insisted on pursuing the case.

Should Judge Merchan rule against Trump on the immunity issue, the 45th president could ensure that the judge does not have the opportunity to rule before the November election, which is shaping up to be a close race. District Attorney Alvin Bragg has already signaled that he will not oppose such a request for a stay. He wrote to Judge Merchan that the People “submit to the Court's determination of whether an adjournment is warranted to allow an orderly hearing of this issue on appeal.”

Both the district attorney and the former president are considering a situation in which Judge Merchan rules against Trump on immunity. Such a ruling would likely mean that the acts for which the former president was convicted – making hush-money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford – were not official acts and therefore do not fall under the presumption of immunity granted by the Supreme Court.

Mr. Bragg's office wrote to Judge Merchan that the evidence Trump said was “affected by the Supreme Court's decision represents only a fraction of the mountains of testimony and documentary evidence the jury considered in reaching its guilty verdict” and that “this case involved evidence of the defendant's personal conduct, not his official actions.” While Trump does not argue that the acts he is accused of are themselves protected, he claims that protected evidence influenced the jury and tainted the verdict.

The most compelling refutation of Trump's argument that the ruling should be overturned is the fact that the payments, brokered by attorney Michael Cohen, were made before the election. However, Trump reimbursed Cohen from the White House. Mr. Bragg claims the payments were an attempt to influence the election through corruption, making the payments criminal.

However, the district attorney cited evidence from Trump's presidency, including his conversations with two of his closest White House aides, Hope Hicks, who cried on the witness stand, and Madeleine Westerhout. The government cited those conversations as key evidence in its closing arguments.

If Judge Merchan keeps the sentencing date — that is within his discretion — and finds in favor of the government that the convictions “arose entirely from 'unofficial acts' of the defendant — conduct for which 'no immunity exists,'” Trump will have about 48 hours to file an appeal if he wants to avoid conviction before the election. Such a request for review would normally be sent first to the New York Appellate Division and then possibly to New York's highest state court, the Court of Appeals. After that, the United States Supreme Court could deign to hear an appeal based on its own ruling in Trump.

The problem is that New York criminal procedure law requires that convictions can only be appealed after the verdict, not before. The Empire State's courts have not allowed so-called post-conviction, pre-sentence appeals. Trump may have to go to a federal district or appeals court to get that intervention because of the Supreme Court's ruling in this case. Trump. Judge Merchan could, however, choose to make the matter moot by delaying sentencing pending an appeal—or election.

Trump's lawyers appear to have anticipated the short time between the immunity ruling and sentencing when they asked Judge Merchan to delay sentencing. Earlier this month, they argued that “a single business day is an unreasonably short period of time for President Trump to attempt to defend these rights should he need to.” Instead, they are asking for “adequate time to consider and pursue state and federal appeals options in response to an adverse ruling.”

These lawyers – Todd Blanche and Emil Bove – also raised the possibility of an interim appeal by the federal courts. They claim that “the Trump The decision was issued on an interlocutory appeal while the Federal Court proceedings were stayed, and the Supreme Court confirmed that the denial of immunity by a court can be challenged before the trial.” They argue that since Trump As emerged from an appeal against the ruling of Judge Tanya Chutkan, a denial of immunity should be “immediately challengeable in a similar procedural situation”.

Mr. Bragg's decline to comment on the scheduling of the trial suggests that the district attorney, an elected Democrat, may be aware of the political impact a possible ruling could have on the close presidential race.

If Judge Merchan declines to impose a prison sentence, it could appear as a ruling by the court on the merits of the charges. If he does, Trump could make the kind of claims of political persecution and persecution that seemed to damage him at the verdict during the Republican primaries. In the hours after his conviction in May, Trump raised $52 million for his campaign.