The arrest of the Telegram founder could have far-reaching implications for Russia | Social media

It is extremely rare for Ilya Yashin, a sharp critic of Vladimir Putin who was recently released from prison, and Margarita Simonyan, a fanatical Kremlin propagandist, to find common ground.

But in the hours following the surprise arrest of Pavel Durov, the reclusive founder of the messaging app Telegram, both Yashin and Simonyan – along with thousands of other Russians from across the political spectrum – joined in calling for his release, underscoring Telegram's unique position as Russia's most popular messaging app.

On Monday evening, prosecutors in France announced that Durov was being held in connection with an investigation into criminal activity on the platform and a lack of cooperation with law enforcement. Paris prosecutor Laure Beccuau said the investigation concerned crimes related to illegal transactions, child sexual abuse, fraud and refusal to share information with authorities.

“I do not consider Pavel Durov a criminal and hope that he will be able to prove his innocence in court,” Yashin wrote on X on Monday.

This view was also shared by the opposition, which began to admire Durov when, as the 27-year-old CEO of the social media platform VKontakte, he was ordered by the FSB to close the pages of opposition groups.

Durov refused and was eventually forced to sell VKontakte to the state, making him one of the few tech moguls to defy Russian authorities.

Durov's next project, the messaging app Telegram, was based on the principle of user privacy. It also introduced “channels” that allow moderators to quickly disseminate information to large numbers of followers, combining the reach and immediacy of a Twitter/X feed with the focus of an email newsletter – features that have made the app a key platform for organizing anti-Putin protests.

Despite growing rumors that Durov may have fallen victim to Kremlin influence, Telegram remained the main channel for dissent in Russia, especially after the outbreak of war, when Vladimir Putin cracked down on independent media and banned Western social media platforms.

Many in the Russian opposition were therefore quick to express concern that Durov's cooperation with French authorities could prompt Moscow to shut down the platform domestically or open the door to similar demands from the Russian government for access to Telegram.

For the Kremlin, which has repeatedly clashed with Durov and tried unsuccessfully to ban Telegram, the arrest was a surprising propaganda coup.

In state talk shows and print media, Durov's imprisonment was portrayed by Russian politicians as an example of Western hypocrisy regarding freedom of expression.

In addition, Kremlin propagandists quickly put forward unsubstantiated theories that Western intelligence agencies had staged Durov's arrest in order to gain access to Telegram's “keys,” including private chats and data of millions of Russians.

“Anyone who is used to using the platform for sensitive conversations should immediately delete those conversations and never do so again,” Kremlin propagandist Simonyan warned in a Telegram post.

“Durov was locked up to get the keys. And he will give them up.”

Baza, a Telegram channel linked to the Russian security apparatus, reported that the Defense Ministry, prominent businessmen and officials from several security agencies were immediately ordered to delete work-related messages from the app.

With Durov’s trust in question, Telegram’s future is also at stake.

Analysts believe the arrest could hamper Telegram's future fundraising efforts and threaten the company's financial stability.

There are also growing concerns about the app's ability to maintain its basic privacy protections, particularly after French media reports that law enforcement officials are attempting to access Telegram's database of private chats.

The potential collapse of Telegram – which handled up to 80% of all Russia's messenger traffic by early 2023 – could have far-reaching implications for Russian society.

One group particularly concerned about Durov's arrest is the Russian military, as well as a cohort of pro-war bloggers and reporters who have gained notoriety through their coverage of the conflict on Telegram.

Since the start of the large-scale Russian invasion in February 2022, Telegram has served both as a communications tool within the Russian military and as a platform for the Kremlin to convey its narrative of the war to ordinary Russians.

“They have practically arrested the head of communications of the Russian army,” complained the popular Russian military blogger channel Povernutie na Z Voine in a Telegram post.

Ordinary Ukrainians and the country's military also use Telegram to raise money for the army and blog about the war. However, the army is known to rely primarily on the Signal platform for internal communications.

Rybar, a leading military analyst close to the Russian leadership, called Telegram “possibly the most important means of command and control of units.”

Rybar added that Durov's arrest exposed the weaknesses of Russia's communication channels and underscored the urgent need to develop state-controlled apps.

“It would be both very sad and somewhat amusing if Durov's arrest proved to be a catalyst for changes in communications within the Russian armed forces,” he concluded.