Picks for College Football Week 1 Upsets (Is the Miami Hype Train in Trouble in the Swamp?)

Chaos is the order of the day in college football, so where can we look for underdogs to cash in on us this weekend?

One of the most important games of Week 1 is when Miami takes its expensive roster to Gainesville to face Florida in an intrastate showdown. Will the Gators be overlooked? I discuss that and share my two other favorite underdog bets for opening weekend.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Florida vs. Miami Prediction and Pick

There is a lot of hype surrounding the Miami team that was built through the transfer portal, but I'm not sure it will be that easy on the road against Florida.

Many are down on the Gators and predicting the end of Billy Napier's tenure as they have the toughest schedule in the country, but this is the end of the season and I think some of the negativity will carry over into this game.

The Gators have a more than capable passing game in Graham Mertz and pass catchers Eugene Wilson and transfer Elijah Badger to test Miami's untested defense, whose value is more geared towards the underdog than home-field advantage.

Will the Hurricanes get it all together so quickly? That's a tough task in the first game of the season against a Florida offense that finished in the top 30 in EPA/passing last season. I believe this game will be decided in the final few minutes, and this Gators team ranks 22nd in return production. It could be the difference between winning and losing against a team with little to no chemistry.

CHOICE: Florida (+126)

UNLV vs. Houston Prediction and Pick

While the competition for the quarterback position gives sports bettors food for thought, I'm banking on the system of Barry Odom and his OC Marion to keep the Rebels' offense at a high level.

The Rebels finished 39th in EPA/Play and returned three starters on the offensive line as well as nearly all of the key contributors in the skill position corps, so while the quarterback position may be questionable, the rest of the roster is ready to get going on offense.

On defense, Odom's unit fell apart over the course of 2023 but did a great job of rebuilding the roster in the transfer portal, including signing players like former Power Four safety Jalen Catalon. This unit can likely take a step forward in 2024 with more talent available and Odom having another year as coach.

Meanwhile, Fritz takes over in Houston with a skeleton crew that has many believing this will be a significant rebuild. While Smith has shown flashes of talent, it's a tall order for Houston to make a big jump from last season's 73rd place EPA/Play ranking.

I will go with the more proven system that is more advanced in terms of implementing a scheme at the beginning of the season and back the Rebels as a small underdog.

CHOICE: UNLV (+112)

Southern Illinois vs. BYU Prediction and Pick

FCS powerhouse Southern Illinois travels to Provo, Utah to face BYU.

The Salukis have enough firepower to keep up with the Cougars, who had a down year in their first season in the Big 12 and come into the team with a ton of questions, including ongoing competition at the offensive line and quarterback position between returning backup Jake Retzlaff and transfer quarterback Gerry Bohannon.

Not a typical FCS opponent, SIU is a regular FCS playoff participant and has an elite defense. Last season, Nick Hill's team beat Northern Illinois on the road, the year before that they beat Northwestern, and the year before that Kansas was ahead at halftime.

SIU will rely on its strong defense and try to keep the number of points to a minimum in this game, giving the underdog even more of an advantage as few plays can make the difference on Saturday.

While Hill replaces a few key players, the team returns its top receiver and four offensive linemen who can counter a BYU defense that ranked 89th in EPA/play and struggled to generate pressure in the backfield (124th in tackles for loss).

As stated above, the total is 50.5, and since there are a lot of questions on the BYU side, I believe there is a lot more variance here than the point spread would suggest. I'm betting on the FBS butcher Salukis pulling off a major upset on Saturday night.

CHOICE: Southern Illinois (+470)

The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on Betting stamp @rw33

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