The end of the firewall? What does the AfD blocking minority mean?

Analyze
Election in Thuringia and Saxony

In Thuringia, the Höcke-AfD is guaranteed a blocking minority. But what does that mean in concrete terms?
© IMAGO/Panama Pictures/IMAGO/Dwi Anoraganingrum

No one will govern with the AfD – and yet it could have more power after the state elections in the east. The reason: In Thuringia it has a blocking minority. What that means and why the other parties are now faced with a dilemma.

Nobody will form a coalition with the AfD. All parties had already made this clear before the state elections in Saxony and Thuringia. At least on the day after the election, there is no sign of a change of course on this issue.

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And yet, the AfD, which is classified as definitely right-wing extremist by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution in both federal states, has, for the first time, political power at the state level after the election.

The reason for this is called the “blocking minority”. What this means, what the situation is like in the respective federal states and what it means for the other parties.

What is a blocking minority?

In general, a blocking minority means that a minority can block a decision-making process. With regard to the AfD and state elections, this is the case when the party wins a third plus one of the seats in the respective state parliament.

In concrete terms, this gives the AfD the opportunity to block all decisions and elections in the respective state parliament that require a two-thirds majority.

Does the AfD have a blocking minority in both state parliaments?

No. In Thuringia, the AfD is certain of a blocking minority. According to the provisional final result, it has won 32 of the 88 seats in the state parliament. However, the situation in Saxony was initially unclear. According to the provisional final result, the AfD currently has 41 of 120 seats there and thus also a blocking minority.

However, according to the state election commission, the election result there must be corrected. Due to a software error, both the AfD and the CDU were each allocated one seat more than they were actually entitled to. This meant that the AfD narrowly missed the hurdle for the blocking minority.

What can the AfD block with a blocking minority?

In Thuringia, for example, a two-thirds majority is required for constitutional changes. In addition, certain offices may not be filled. For example, the head of the State Audit Office must be elected with a two-thirds majority of all parliamentarians.

The President of Parliament and his deputy can only be elected by two thirds of all MPs. The situation is particularly critical with regard to the judiciary. In Thuringia, the AfD could prevent the appointment of constitutional judges in the future.

The so-called Judges Election Committee must also be elected by two thirds of the members present at the plenary session when the decision is made. This is extremely important for the judiciary in Thuringia because it decides on the appointment of judges for life.

In addition, the state parliament can no longer dissolve itself if the AfD does not want it to. Theoretically, dissolution is also possible if the state premier is no longer trusted.

In practice, however, it is not so easy. The rules of procedure of the Thuringian state parliament state that new elections will only be held if, after the vote of no confidence has been taken against the prime minister, a successor has not been elected within three weeks. And any parliamentary group in the state parliament can force this election with a simple motion.

At the same time, the rules for electing the Prime Minister state that he or she needs an absolute majority in the first two rounds of voting. If that is not possible, the rules of procedure state that “the person who receives the most votes in a subsequent round of voting is elected.”

The AfD could exploit this set of rules and put forward its own candidate in the third round of voting. If the other parties want to prevent this candidate from being elected, they must put forward a rival candidate who can get more votes across party lines than the AfD has available. Thuringia would have a new prime minister and new elections would be a thing of the past.

Why is an AfD blocking minority so tricky?

Constitutional changes do not happen all the time in the state parliaments either. But when it comes to the appointment of judges in Thuringia, for example, the government simply cannot afford to sit it out until the AfD is no longer allowed to have a say in the appointment of the judges' selection committee. Ultimately, the rule of law could suffer as a result.

But the alternative would be that the governing parties would have to negotiate with the AfD on these points. This would de facto mean an end to the AfD's firewall and its strategy of distancing itself from the right-wing populists.

This would be a problem especially for the CDU, which, as things stand, could lead a potential government in Thuringia. (With material from dpa and afp)

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