Democrats drive election campaign enthusiasm

WASHINGTON, DC – Americans' enthusiasm for this year's election has skyrocketed in recent months, with 69 percent of American adults saying they are “more excited than usual” about the election, up from 54 percent in March.

The poll, conducted August 1-20, was largely conducted ahead of the Democratic National Convention, scheduled to take place August 19-22, but after President Joe Biden dropped his re-election bid on July 21. In the days following Biden's announcement, party leaders quickly agreed on Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee.

Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are the main drivers of the nationwide surge in enthusiasm. In March, 55 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters said they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting; now that number is 78 percent. Republicans and Republican-leaning voters, who had a slight lead in enthusiasm in March, are now significantly behind Democrats: Their current enthusiasm score of 64 percent is up slightly from 59 percent in the spring.

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As a result of these changes, election enthusiasm has shifted from average levels in March to the highest level Gallup has measured during a presidential campaign. A similar level of enthusiasm – 67% – was measured by Gallup in polls in September 2020, October 2008 and August 2004.

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Current Democratic enthusiasm is one percentage point below the group's peak in the Gallup trend since 2000, when it was 79% in February 2008, when Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were engaged in a heated battle for the party's presidential nomination. Enthusiasm waned later that year, but by the end of the campaign, more than seven in 10 consistently said they were more enthusiastic about voting than usual. Democratic enthusiasm was also high during the 2004 and 2020 presidential campaigns.

Republican enthusiasm for the 2024 election is approaching the record high of 70% recorded in August 2020, when Donald Trump was seeking a second term as president. Republicans showed similarly high enthusiasm levels in the later stages of the 2004 and 2012 elections.

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Thoughts on the election reached a record high in August

The poll, conducted between August 1 and 20, also found that 79 percent of Americans said they had given the election “quite a lot of thought,” surpassing the previous high of 74 percent in August 2008.

Because Americans tend to watch the election closer to Election Day than in August, a new high is likely to be reached by the end of the campaign in 2024. Currently, the 84% recorded by Gallup immediately before Election Day is the highest figure recorded by Gallup.

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Americans have been following the election closely all year, with 77 percent saying they had given it a lot of thought in February and 71 percent in April.

Earlier this year, Republicans were more likely to be thinking about the election than Democrats and independents, perhaps because of the Republican presidential primaries. Now, Democrats and Republicans are showing similar levels of attention, with independents still trailing by about 20 percentage points.

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Most voters have decided

With voters engrossed in the election campaign, it's not surprising that most have already made up their minds. Seventy-nine percent of American adults, including 83 percent of eligible voters, say they have made up their minds. About one in five adults (19 percent) and one in six eligible voters (16 percent) say they are still undecided.

Democratic adults (93%) are slightly more likely than Republican adults (86%) to say they have decided. About six-in-ten politically independents say they have decided on a candidate, while 35% have not.

Americans are generally positive about the election process

Americans overwhelmingly respond positively when asked about six different ways the presidential campaign could reflect a healthy democracy. Specifically, 79 percent say the presidential campaign produced at least one good candidate; 71 percent say it encouraged discussion of important issues; 81 percent believe they know where the candidates stand on those issues; and 72 percent say the candidates offered solutions to the country's problems.

In contrast to these generally positive assessments, there are more Americans who believe that the way the election campaign is being conducted does not reflect their opinion than who agree.

On a more personal level, 88 percent of American adults say it makes a real difference to them who is elected president.

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On the aspects of the campaign that generate positive evaluations, both Republicans and Democrats overwhelmingly agree that the campaign is going well in this regard. In some cases, this is likely because they are responding on behalf of their preferred candidate. In contrast, their views on the conduct of the campaign may be more indicative of their perceptions of the opposing candidate.

While the Trump campaign criticizes the Democrats' replacement of Biden after the primaries, 70 percent of Democrats versus 26 percent of Republicans say the campaign's conduct makes them feel the process is working this year. Independents' views are more similar to those of Republicans than Democrats.

Republicans and Democrats hold similarly positive views on the other election dynamics assessed, while independents tend to view the election campaign less positively than the two major party groups.

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Conclusion

Biden's decision to step down as the Democratic nominee under pressure from senior Democrats came as enthusiasm for the election increased among party supporters, while Republicans and independents became doubtful about the electoral process. Nevertheless, both party groups are deeply committed to the election, even if Democrats' commitment now exceeds that of Republicans. Increased election awareness and enthusiasm in both parties could mean that voter turnout could be higher than in 2020, when two-thirds of eligible adults in the United States cast ballots – the highest in over 100 years.

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View full answers to questions and trends (PDF download).

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