Sinn Féin must use its housing campaign to convince voters to abandon state programs

Clear divisions are emerging on the issue of housing in the run-up to the general election, and the initial skirmishes following the publication of Sinn Féin's housing programme on Monday say a lot about the battle for credibility on this extremely intractable and sensitive issue.

The plan is very detailed at 107 pages – and Sinn Féin will enforce its message verbatim by sending an abridged version to every household in the country in the coming weeks. The aim is to reorient the housing system. 30 percent of the housing is to be “non-market-supported public housing”, in contrast to the current situation in which, according to the party, 84 percent is “private and for-profit”.

This would require an average of 60,000 new homes to be built per year over the next five years, it says. The government admits its official target of 33,000 homes per year is not enough, and there are signs that the new targets set next month will be around 50,000 per year.

[ Sinn Féin’s housing plan: €39bn, 300,000 homes delivered, ‘absolutely’ fiscally responsibleOpens in new window ]

It is notable that the Sinn Féin plan lacks some of the more explicit 'retail' elements that the government's strategy boasts. The Coalition has invested both political and financial capital in programs such as Help to Buy and its Shared Equity First Home Scheme, which are probably the two most high-profile interventions from Darragh O'Brien's extensive range of policies implemented since 2020. The appeal for the government is obvious – these programs turn renters into owners.

Sinn Féin responds that these schemes are limited to only a portion of the market but drive up prices for everyone. The party plans to abolish or stop these schemes altogether, while adjusting eligibility criteria for others. Pearse Doherty said on Monday that another two years of government policy would make houses €50,000 more expensive – a sobering forecast for anyone looking to buy a home.

The party says a series of reforms to the planning process, land-use planning measures, support for small builders and wider use of compulsory purchase orders would eliminate the need for demand-stimulating programmes. That sounds like an elegant solution, but deeper reforms take longer – and the government will no doubt argue that much of that work is already underway.

Sinn Féin needs to convince voters that scrapping these schemes will not make homes more unaffordable in the short term, even if it can make a compelling case for a better functioning housing market in five years' time. There are signs the party is refining its offer to offer more in the short term – the housing plan includes a stamp duty exemption for first-time buyers of homes up to €450,000, which was not mentioned in the detailed announcement of its policy in the summer and is only said to have been agreed in recent weeks. Sinn Féin says there will be more affordable homes from year one, pointing to 22,000 homes stuck in the bureaucratic system of providing social housing. The party is also offering a three-year rent freeze from day one.

Another point of attack, which the Government has already recognised, is the novelty of some of Sinn Féin's proposals, such as the affordable housing scheme, which is based on the State owning the land on which a property is located in perpetuity, with certain restrictions on the future sale or rental of the property.

It claims that this will create affordable housing for €250,000-300,000. The Coalition has opposed this policy, arguing that banks will not give mortgages for it (the banks themselves have not yet commented on the issue, while Sinn Féin says they are confident it will not be a problem). They also argue, somewhat exaggeratedly, that it will make traditional home ownership impossible. This too is a battle that will play out in the minds of voters: is Sinn Féin's plan credible enough to persuade voters to turn away from government programs that they probably intuitively see as flawed but which offer the chance of home ownership?

Sinn Féin has unveiled its €39 billion five-year plan to solve Ireland's housing crisis. Video: Enda O'Dowd

Sinn Féin also says the party will spend less long-term money to respond to demographic changes, climate change and infrastructure deficits, and to invest in housing. Doherty, the party's finance spokesman, was particularly strong on this point, and the policy line is compelling: in an age of buzzword politics, it is very easy to understand cutting the government's spending plans for tomorrow when there are so many problems here and now. But it opens up another front for the government that will no doubt raise questions about whether Sinn Féin can be trusted to make the big economic decisions.

The government claims it has turned the corner on housing – but affordability, shortages and homelessness are as bad as ever. Meanwhile, Sinn Féin says the whole map needs to be redrawn, but its solutions are untested, even if they come against a backdrop of lackluster government performance. How this campaign plays out among undecided voters will determine much in the coming months.