Could mass protests in Israel over the hostages persuade Netanyahu to agree to a ceasefire?

Grief and anger filled Israelis over the weekend after the military said six hostages had been killed by their captors in Gaza as troops approached their location.

The anger sparked massive protests and a general strike – the strongest domestic pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu since the war began nearly eleven months ago.

Many Israelis blame Netanyahu for the rising number of hostage deaths and are calling for a ceasefire to release the remaining 100 or so prisoners – even if that would mean an end to the conflict. Sunday's demonstrations were the biggest show of support for a hostage deal since Oct. 7, when Hamas-led militants swept into Israel and kidnapped 250 people.

But Netanyahu has faced intense pressure to reach a ceasefire agreement before, from key government partners, senior security officials and even Israel's main international ally, the United States. Yet an agreement to end the war in Gaza has still not been reached.

Here's a look at how the public outcry in Israel could influence Netanyahu's next moves in the war:

Netanyahu's position Critics of Netanyahu's position have consistently claimed throughout the war that his political survival is more important to him than anything else, including the fate of the hostages. His rule rests on the support of two ultranationalist parties that were once on the fringes of Israeli politics but now hold key positions in the government. Led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, they oppose any agreement that would end the war or release Palestinian prisoners convicted of killing Israelis.

They have vowed to overthrow the government if Netanyahu agrees to a ceasefire – a move that would trigger new elections that could lead to Netanyahu's impeachment.

“What interests him is his political survival,” says Reuven Hazan, a political scientist at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem. “His political survival with Ben-Gvir and Smotrich does not allow him to end the war and release the hostages.”

Netanyahu blames Hamas for the failure of an agreement.

Also hanging over the prime minister's head is his ongoing trial on corruption charges. If Netanyahu is voted out, he will lose his platform to rail against the judicial system, which he accuses of bias. He would also be unable to push forward with his government's planned changes to the judicial system, which critics say could compromise the trial and help him avoid conviction.

Netanyahu says he has the country's best interests in mind and insists the military operation in Gaza is the best way to free the hostages. He also wants Israeli troops to stay in two strips of land in Gaza no matter what. On Monday, he reiterated that he would never agree to a withdrawal from any of those areas.

Hamas has rejected these demands as dealbreakers – and this condition has led to clashes with Netanyahu's own defense minister, who says an agreement to release the hostages must be a top priority.

As the war in Gaza claims more and more victims and entire parts of the territory are destroyed, Israel is becoming increasingly isolated internationally. Asked whether Netanyahu was doing enough to negotiate an agreement, US President Joe Biden replied on Monday: “No.”

Biden, who has never seen eye to eye with the Israeli president despite their countries being close allies, has become increasingly critical of his counterpart's leadership. But the timing of his remarks on Monday was particularly apt, coming after the demonstrations and expressions of mourning for the hostages.

Largest expression of support for a hostage deal

Many Israelis accuse Netanyahu of thwarting an agreement to stay in power and say he is putting the lives of hostages at risk by not ending the war.

“Hamas was the one who pulled the trigger, but Netanyahu is the one who sentenced (the hostages) to death,” said an editorial in the liberal daily Haaretz on Sunday.

Since the war began, there have been weekly protests in Israel in solidarity with the hostages. But over time, as Israelis have tried to return to some semblance of normality or dealt with fears of a regional war with Iran or the militant Hezbollah, the protests have waned. This has eased the pressure on Netanyahu and talks on a deal have repeatedly fizzled out.

But on Sunday, hundreds of thousands of people streamed into downtown Tel Aviv, beating drums and chanting “Deal, now!” About 100 hostages are still held captive in Gaza, about a third of them are believed to be dead. Israel and Hamas are considering a three-phase plan to release them and end the war.

It was the largest demonstration Israel has seen since at least the pre-war period, when Israelis took to the streets weekly to protest Netanyahu's plans to reform the judiciary. The protests and a general strike led Netanyahu and his government to backtrack on or water down some of their decisions, but the reform was not put on hold until the war broke out.

The limits of public pressure

The current public outcry has been limited. Sunday's protests failed to break long-standing political boundaries and appeared to come largely from the same liberal, secular Israelis who protested against the reform and against Netanyahu's leadership while he was on trial on corruption charges.

Many of Netanyahu's supporters believe that giving in to the current negotiating position after the deaths of the six hostages would be a sign to Hamas that it can benefit from such violence.

Monday's strike also reflected these political divisions. Liberal municipalities in central Israel, including Tel Aviv, joined the strike, which led to the closure of public daycare centers and other services. But other cities, including Jerusalem, with predominantly conservative and religious populations that tend to support Netanyahu, did not join the strike. And a labor court shortened the strike by several hours, hampering its effectiveness.

Without large, sustained protests across broader sections of society, it's hard to imagine Netanyahu will feel enough pressure to change his approach, says political scientist Hazan. And as long as his government is stable, he could stick to his demands in negotiations to appease his coalition and ignore the protests entirely.

Nevertheless, relatives of the hostages killed in Gaza expressed hope that the protests marked a turning point in the war that could lead to progress towards a settlement.

In a eulogy for Hersh Goldberg-Polin, an Israeli-American who became one of the most famous prisoners, his father spoke about the emotional resonance the prisoners' deaths could have.

“For 330 days, Mom and I searched for the proverbial rock that we could turn over to save you,” Jon Polin said. “Maybe, just maybe, your death will be the rock, the fuel that will bring the remaining hostages home.”