What is Russia's nuclear doctrine and how could it change? – ThePrint – ReutersFeed

By Mark Trevelyan
LONDON (Reuters) – Russia announces changes to the doctrine governing the circumstances under which it could use nuclear weapons. What could this mean?

WHAT DOES RUSSIA’S EXISTING NUCLEAR DOCTRINE SAY?

Because this risk is not explicitly defined, Putin has been able to issue thinly veiled threats that he would use Russia's nuclear arsenal to prevent any direct Western response to his deployment of troops to Ukraine in February 2022.

WHY DOES RUSSIA NOW WANT TO CHANGE ITS NUCLEAR DOCTRINE?

Putin's arms control representative, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, said on Sunday that the planned changes were “related to the escalation course of our Western opponents” in connection with the Ukraine conflict. He did not mention any specific events. The public debate about the nuclear doctrine has been going on for more than a year and intensified this year after French President Emmanuel Macron raised the possibility – rejected by NATO allies – of sending Western troops to Ukraine.

Ultra-warlike foreign policy expert Sergei Karaganov said Russia must lower the threshold for using nuclear weapons to “contain our opponents, scare them and sober them up.” Countries that provide direct military support to Ukraine could also be targeted.

“In 75 years of relative peace, people have forgotten the horrors of war and even stopped being afraid of nuclear weapons… This fear must be revived,” Karaganov wrote in June 2023.

He argued that Russia's enemies must know that Moscow is prepared to launch a preemptive, limited nuclear strike if necessary. If Russia were to use a nuclear weapon in Europe, Karaganov said, only a “madman” in the White House would respond with a nuclear or conventional attack on Russia, because that would inevitably trigger a Russian nuclear strike on the United States.

WHAT COULD CHANGES MEAN IN PRACTICE?

In a televised discussion at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum on June 7, Karaganov asked Putin directly whether Russia should “put a nuclear gun to the West's head” in the Ukraine operation. Putin said Russia did not need to use nuclear weapons to ensure victory, but nuclear doctrine was a “living instrument” that could change.

Nikolai Sokov, a former Russian and Soviet arms control diplomat, said the goal was to send a signal to the West: “Don't forget about nuclear weapons. Be very, very careful.”

But Sokov, a senior official at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, said Russia would not publicly announce changes such as those proposed by Karaganov.

An open lowering of Moscow's nuclear threshold could deeply anger the countries that have so far avoided allying with the West against Russia: China, India, Brazil and other countries in the global South.

Instead, Russia could announce that it has changed its policy but is keeping the new doctrine secret – thereby sending a signal to the West while keeping it in the dark.

In June, the chairman of the Russian parliament's defense committee said Moscow might shorten the decision-making time for using nuclear weapons if it perceived an increasing threat.

WHAT IMPACT DOES THE NUCLEAR ISSUE HAVE ON THE WAR IN UKRAINE?

The risk of nuclear war with Russia has deterred the US and its NATO allies from sending their armies to fight alongside Ukraine. Yet they have ramped up military aid to Kyiv on a scale that would have been unthinkable before, including by supplying tanks, long-range missiles and F-16 fighter jets. By occupying a piece of Russian territory, Ukraine has now crossed a new threshold, which Kyiv says makes a mockery of Putin's “red lines” and shows that the West should now do everything it can to help Ukraine win the war.

However, Sokov said it would be wrong to dismiss the Russian nuclear signals as empty talk. They have already contributed to a slowdown in Western aid.

In addition, Russia has already taken concrete steps by deploying tactical nuclear missiles in Belarus and holding exercises this year to practice the use of such weapons.

“It's a big mistake to say, 'Oh, that's just talk,'” he said. “When you change the doctrine, everyone should pay attention.”

(Reporting by Mark Trevelyan; Editing by Guy Faulconbridge and Kevin Liffey)

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