Can Harris pursue Trump politically? Important questions before the debate

NEW YORK — Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will debate for the first — and perhaps last — time Tuesday night as the presidential candidates vie for voters' favor on the biggest stage in U.S. politics.

The meeting comes just 75 days after President Joe Biden's disastrous debate performance, which sparked a political earthquake that ultimately forced him out of the race. Few expected such a cataclysmic outcome this time around, but Trump has made it his mission to end Harris' “honeymoon” as polls suggest the Democratic vice president is now tied or just ahead of the Republican ex-president in some swing states.

Harris, a former prosecutor, will enter the evening with relatively high expectations, facing a Republican opponent with 34 felony convictions and a penchant for making false statements. The question is whether Harris, who didn't stand out much during the primary debates of her 2020 presidential campaign, can denounce Trump's glaring misdeeds in a face-to-face meeting on live television in front of the world.

The 90-minute meeting begins at 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday at the National Constitutional Center in Philadelphia. It will be moderated by ABC News anchors David Muir and Linsey Davis. According to rules negotiated by both campaigns, there will be no live audience.

This is what we pay attention to on a historic night:

Can Harris do what Biden could not?

Biden set the bar incredibly low for Harris in the June 27 debate. The president struggled to make coherent arguments or finish his sentences. But what disappointed the anti-Trump coalition most was his failure to exploit Trump's obvious policy weaknesses – whether on abortion, the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, character issues or his legal troubles.

Harris is expected to do much better. But even on this fertile ground, scoring points against Trump on the debate stage is easier said than done. Trump is possibly the most experienced debater in modern presidential history. As a former reality TV star, he knows how to dominate television coverage. And he clearly enjoys fighting.

Harris recently hinted that she may be looking forward to a political brawl. “Donald,” she told a cheering crowd in Atlanta last month, “if you have something to say, say it to my face.”

Can she put her harsh words into action? The world will soon find out.

Can Trump concentrate?

Trump is not known for his discipline or preparation. His debate performances, like his governing style, are typically based on instinct rather than thoughtful analysis.

So few expect Trump to present a clear and concise line of attack against Harris on Tuesday night. Still, he will have to do better than the kitchen-sink approach he tried for much of last month's campaign.

Trump has questioned Harris's ethnic identity. He has falsely called her a communist. He has questioned her strength. He has called her a liberal from San Francisco. And he has reminded voters that she has served in the Biden White House for nearly four years and would likely continue the president's policies for another four years if she wins.

Many Republicans inside and outside the Trump campaign see the Biden connection as particularly powerful. They want him to quote Ronald Reagan's dig from the 1980 debate early and often: “Are you feeling better?”

The question is whether Trump can get that message across in a way that won't be immediately overshadowed by a far more controversial statement. Recent history gives cause for skepticism.

Body language is important

Of course, there will be a clear gender dynamic on stage on Tuesday night.

Fair or not, body language and tone are perceived differently in a debate between a man and a woman. Just ask Hillary Clinton. She said Trump gave her “goosebumps” when he stood behind her and spoke during a town hall-style debate in 2016.

The candidates are expected to stay behind their lecterns Tuesday night, but Republicans are hoping Trump will avoid further provocations, such as pointing fingers at Harris, yelling at her or otherwise addressing Harris in a way that could turn off suburban women or other swing voters.

Harris, too, will face unique challenges related to her race and gender as voters consider whether to make her the country's first female president. Some voters still say they are uncomfortable with the idea. If she comes across as angry, she risks perpetuating racist stereotypes about black women.

While gender dynamics play a role, don't underestimate the importance of the age difference.

Harris is nearly two decades younger than the 78-year-old Trump. Age was seen as a political advantage for Trump when he ran against the 81-year-old Biden, but now the opposite is true when it comes to the 59-year-old Harris. If he wins, Trump would be the oldest US president ever elected.

The format will also be slightly different, according to a set of rules the candidates agreed on this week.

There will be no live audience, no opening speeches and no props are allowed. Candidates' microphones will be muted when it is their opponent's turn, a provision that has caused some controversy in recent days.

Trump reluctantly agreed to the mute feature when he faced Biden in June, but after that debate his team concluded that it was an overall positive if voters didn't hear from the former Republican president while his opponent spoke. Harris' team pushed for a return to a normal format without mute buttons.

Abortion vs. immigration

In presidential debates, politics sometimes plays a subordinate role compared to personality. But on key issues that concern millions of voters, there are dramatic differences between the candidates.

Republicans hope Trump will make immigration a key issue in the debate.

Republicans have effectively condemned the Biden administration's handling of illegal immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border over the past four years. Illegal immigration was once a Republican-focused issue, but today it – and related concerns about drugs, crime and national security – is a top issue for voters across the political spectrum.

Harris will be happy to remind her voters that Trump helped kill a bipartisan immigration bill that would have gone a long way toward solving the problem. But overall, Harris will likely be on the defensive when the issue comes up.

Meanwhile, Democrats want to focus on abortion.

Trump, of course, appointed three justices to the Supreme Court who later overturned the landmark Roe v. Wade ruling that protected a woman's right to an abortion. Trump has repeatedly said he is proud that Roe was overturned. But, aware that such a view is not popular with many women, he has tried to soften his stance on the controversial issue.

Harris will not make it easy for him. It is obvious that as a woman she can be a far more effective ambassador on this issue than Biden. And Trump cannot afford to lose any more female voters.

Watch out for the Joker Trump

If you ask Trump's former debate opponents what they're watching for on Tuesday night – and we did – many of them say the same thing: Pay attention to the things he says or does that Harris can't possibly prepare for.

Trump is the ultimate wild card, having achieved enormous political success by ignoring the traditional rules of politics. He will say or do whatever he thinks is best at the moment. And Harris, who has devoted several days to debate preparation, cannot plan for everything.

At this point, it's hard to imagine Trump surprising anyone with new material. He has praised dictators, talked about the size of genitalia, proposed suspending the U.S. Constitution and said that Harris only recently “turned black.”

Trump's own team doesn't know what he will do or say on any given day. That's incredibly risky for Trump. But it also puts enormous pressure on Harris.