2024 NFL playoff field predictions: 20 teams that could make it

The final week before the NFL season is when we think we know the most, and that makes it the perfect time to pick playoff teams for the campaign to come. Without any real football to pick apart or digest over the past nearly seven months, opinions on what is about to happen coalesce. We know the sexy Super Bowl pick, the sleeper about to make the leap and the teams that are locks to return to the postseason.

And then Week 1 arrives and all our feelings get blown out of the water. What we thought this time last year didn’t amount to much for very long. The Jets were the trendy Super Bowl pick, and that lasted for four offensive snaps. The Bengals had the fourth-highest odds to make it to the postseason after back-to-back deep runs, and a Week 1 blowout loss to the Browns signaled that the AFC North wasn’t going to be a breeze. Six of the 15 teams with the shortest Super Bowl odds before the 2023 season didn’t even make it to the postseason.

On the flip side, long shots that would have been laughed off as potential playoff teams before the season made it in. The Buccaneers, who spent the offseason observing a quarterback battle between Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask, had the sixth-longest Super Bowl odds when the season started. They made the playoffs. The Rams, the 24th-ranked team by ESPN’s Football Power Index, made it. Before the season, I observed that 14 of the 16 teams in the AFC were actively competing as if they expected to make it into the postseason. The two teams that were exceptions to that group — the Colts and Texans — both posted winning records and essentially competed in a play-in game for the AFC South crown in Week 18.

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It would have seemed ridiculous at this time a year ago to suggest the 3-13-1 Texans would make the playoffs and the 12-4 Bengals would miss out, yet that’s exactly what happened. We’re often too conservative in expecting teams that made it to the postseason last year to return the following season. The league moves faster than any of us expect.

Since the league moved to the 14-team playoff format in 2020, only about half the teams reaching one postseason return the following season. Seven franchises that made it to the playoffs in 2020 got back in 2021. The same number returned for 2022, while eight teams that made it that year got back this past season. That’s an average of 7.3 teams per season.

That’s a small sample, but if we look back to 2002 and the beginning of the league’s 32-team era and project which teams would have made the playoffs as the 7-seed if it had included 14 teams, the numbers don’t change by much. While acknowledging that teams might have acted differently late in the season if a potential playoff spot were available, an average of 7.9 teams would have made it back in a 14-team system. If we’re generous and round up, that means eight teams stay in, six teams leave and six new teams take their place.

What if we build a playoff field that way, picking six teams that aren’t going to make it back to the postseason? Which six teams are out? And which six take their place? I’m going to take that challenge. I’ll start by going through the eight teams I expect to return, identify the six I’m projecting to miss out and finish by picking six that missed the playoffs a year ago but should get in this season.

I’m not sure I made any predictions quite as brave as landing on the 3-13-1 Texans as a playoff team, but I’m sure there will be a surprise or two along the way. (Playoff odds are as of publication, via ESPN BET. Chances to make the playoffs are from ESPN’s Football Power Index.)

Jump to an interesting team:
49ers | Bengals | Bills | Chargers
Cowboys | Dolphins | Eagles | Jets
Packers | Saints | Steelers | Texans
See Barnwell’s Super Bowl pick

Teams returning to the postseason

ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: -550
Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 87.1%

Probably not much of a surprise, right? If you read my column on the teams most likely to improve in 2024, you know I’m high on the Chiefs. They managed to be 11-6 last season despite a historical outlier of a drop rate from their wide receivers, the league’s fourth-worst fumble recovery rate and an atypical turnover margin for a team of their caliber. When those things corrected during the postseason, well, you saw what happened.

Although the Chiefs lost cornerback L’Jarius Sneed this offseason, they will bring back the vast majority of the players who led them to their second straight title, including defensive tackle Chris Jones and many of the youthful building blocks on the league’s second-youngest defense. They also added significant help at wide receiver, using a first-round pick on Xavier Worthy and signing Marquise Brown in free agency, giving Patrick Mahomes the deep threats he lacked last season. I think the Chiefs have a 15-win season in them if the breaks that didn’t go their way a year ago are more favorable.

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ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: -280
Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 78.5%

The Ravens were on my list of teams to decline. That’s partly because it’s hard for a team with 13 wins to repeat, but there are other factors in play here. They posted the league’s best turnover margin, which is tough to sustain. They were a massive outlier in terms of red zone performance versus the rest of the NFL. And they lost a handful of key contributors from a dominant defense, including defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, who is now head coach of the Seahawks.

The Ravens are essentially starting over on the offensive line after losing three starters this past offseason, which might impact the one thing that seems to lock them into the playoffs year after year. Having Lamar Jackson present and accounted for is usually enough to guarantee a playoff berth, as they have gone a staggering 58-19 (.753) with the two-time MVP in the starting lineup since he entered the league. Post-Thanksgiving injuries to Jackson in back-to-back seasons, though, cost Baltimore a playoff spot in 2021 and a division title in 2022.

This team should have a 10-win floor if Jackson is available for 17 games, but if the line doesn’t come together and Jackson misses time, the Ravens are at serious risk of surprisingly missing the playoffs.

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ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: -170
Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 70.2%

There are serious questions about a Buffalo team in transition from the core that came up with coach Sean McDermott and Josh Allen. Stalwarts including wide receiver Stefon Diggs, center Mitch Morse and defensive backs Tre’Davious White, Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde all left the organization this offseason. Linebacker Matt Milano, one of the few core players who remains on the roster, is out indefinitely after tearing his biceps in training camp. On paper, the Bills look as if they’re going to struggle to compete with more talented teams around the AFC.

You would probably rather start with those players than without them, but how many are likely to be massive losses in relation to last year’s division champs? Diggs saw his role in the offense decline during the second-half winning streak and saw his advanced statistics crater. White played only four games because of a torn Achilles. Poyer and Hyde played mostly full seasons, but they’re both 33 years old and not at their peaks. Morse’s presence will be missed most, but the Bills aren’t losing the best versions of their veterans.

I suppose this is a vote for both Allen and McDermott, the latter of whom has managed to do an excellent job of molding defensive draftees into meaningful contributors while getting more out of veterans in Buffalo than other coaches did in the players’ prior stops. (Poyer and Hyde, who became the best safety duo in football, are classic examples of that.) I have faith that Allen will find success spreading the ball around to a young, talented receiving corps and that the Bills will piece together their sixth consecutive season with at least 10 wins.

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ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: -195
Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 77.8%

Unlike the Bills, the Cowboys lost more meaningful players off the team that won the NFC East a year ago. Edge rusher Dorance Armstrong, cornerback Stephon Gilmore, and offensive linemen Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz all left this offseason without any notable veterans coming in to replace them. DaRon Bland, a revelation at cornerback last season, is already sidelined by a stress fracture in his foot. And Dan Quinn, who helped turn around the defense when he arrived in Big D in 2021, joined the rival Commanders to take over as their coach.

Also unlike the Bills, though, the Cowboys aren’t stuck in the pressure cooker that is the AFC. The bar for playoff entry in the NFC doesn’t appear to be quite as high, and two other teams in Dallas’ division appeared in my list of teams likely to decline. (We’ll get to one of them in a minute.) If I were trying to make a shocking prediction, I’d point to the idea the Commanders could be this year’s Texans and unexpectedly win the NFC East at the Cowboys’ expense. I’m not quite prepared to go there, however, so I’ll peg the Cowboys as the repeat divisional champs.

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ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: -250
Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 80.6%

While the numbers suggest the 12-5 Lions had the point differential of a 10-win team last season, they should have enough to make a return trip to the postseason. This was the league’s fifth-youngest team by snap-weighted age in 2023, and it was able to add multiple players to address its issues in the secondary this offseason. As we saw last year, making additions at cornerback doesn’t guarantee Aaron Glenn’s defense will thrive, but the Lions certainly look well-positioned to improve in the places where they were weakest.

There are more vulnerabilities here than it might seem. The young playmakers the Lions added a year ago, running back Jahmyr Gibbs and tight end Sam LaPorta, have battled injuries during camp. Amon-Ra St. Brown has been ruthlessly efficient in the slot, but there are questions about the receiving corps behind him. The only consistently effective pass rusher on the roster is Aidan Hutchinson. And after their first division title in 30 years, the Lions will face a tougher schedule. All of those are reasons to temper enthusiasm but not to throw it away altogether.

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ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: -165
Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 65.2%

Here comes an even younger version of the Lions, as the team that fielded the league’s most youthful snap-adjusted roster in football and the least-experienced receiving corps in modern league history hopes to deliver on the promise we saw in the second half. The Packers went 6-2 down the stretch, with Jordan Love leading the NFL in QBR and posting an 18-1 ratio in touchdowns to interceptions. He did that without starting left tackle David Bakhtiari and with limited contributions from presumptive top wideout Christian Watson, who is back in the NFL’s most excitingly murky wide receivers room.

The big change here is at defensive coordinator, where Jeff Hafley joins from the college ranks. If Hafley sticks to what he did at Boston College, the Packers are going to play single-high coverage at one of the highest rates in the league, something they prepared for by signing safety Xavier McKinney in free agency and drafting Javon Bullard in the second round. We saw the Browns revitalize a defense full of underwhelming high draft picks by hiring Jim Schwartz and moving toward a man-heavy scheme. If Green Bay does the same and gets even vaguely similar results, it could be the best team in the NFC.

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ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: -450
Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 85.6%

Amid all the conversations about trades and holdouts, it almost seems like an afterthought that the 49ers will line up and play football Monday night against the Jets. On paper, everybody within the core who led them to the NFC title returns for another attempt at winning a Super Bowl, including left tackle Trent Williams, who ended his holdout this week.

While the debates about Brock Purdy’s impact on the offense rage on, all we can say for sure is teams haven’t yet found a way to stop the former seventh-round pick consistently. Since Purdy entered the starting lineup in Week 13 of the 2022 season, the 49ers are a league-best 18-5, lead the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per play on offense, and rank third in EPA per play on defense. They’ve been the best team in football over that stretch, even if it hasn’t yet yielded a championship. Barring a rash of injuries to Purdy and his fellow superstars atop the San Francisco roster, this team will be back in the playoffs for another run.

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ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: +300
Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 47.2%

When I started doing this exercise, I had seven playoff contenders I felt good about picking, all of whom are the ones you see above. The eighth spot was toughest, as I struggled to pick between the Rams and the Eagles. I have reservations about both teams, although those concerns are different. About the only thing they have in common is losing a Hall of Famer along the line of scrimmage, as both Jason Kelce and Aaron Donald retired this offseason.

For the Rams, replacing Donald (and departed defensive coordinator Raheem Morris) will be a burden. Blessed with the most draft capital they’ve seen in nearly a decade, they used their top two picks on defensive linemen Jared Verse and Braden Fiske, then added veterans to one of the league’s youngest secondaries from a year ago. It was a surprise to see them trade starting linebacker Ernest Jones for a swap of Day 3 picks, but I’m willing to give general manager Les Snead some benefit of the doubt. The Rams will miss Donald, but they should be fine on defense.

The L.A. offense looks great on paper, but it’s already battling injuries. Free agent addition Jonah Jackson missed most of training camp, and the Rams are reportedly considering moving him to center, which suggests things haven’t gone well for would-be starter Steve Avila in his transition to the position. Left tackle Alaric Jackson is suspended for two games to start the season, and right tackle Rob Havenstein is battling an ankle injury. Oh, and star wideout Puka Nacua is dealing with a knee ailment, while Kyren Williams has curiously been placed on punt return duties to go with his role as the lead running back.

I’m placing my faith in coach Sean McVay and his almost-pristine track record of getting the Rams to play at a high level, barring a 2022 season that was impacted by a historically brutal stretch of injuries to the offensive line and just about every veteran member of the team’s core. In my playoff picture, the final two wild-card berths in the NFC are a slugfest between a bunch of nine- or 10-win teams. L.A. hosts the Eagles in Week 12, and that home-field advantage was just enough for me to lean in its direction over Philadelphia’s.

Who’s out (and who’s in)

If you paid attention in the prior section, you already know the six postseason teams from 2023 I’ve projected to make the playoffs this season. If you just skimmed for your team or skipped ahead to this section, well, get ready to be surprised!

While some of these aren’t necessarily like-for-like replacements in terms of where they stand within the playoff picture, the simplest way to do this is to identify each franchise I project to miss the postseason and then a team that will essentially replace it this January. Let’s start with the team I was just discussing …

ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: -275
Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 79.4%

A few of these teams, the Eagles included, featured in my list of teams likely to decline. I won’t lay out that entire article again, but the Eagles were actually meaningfully worse than their record last season, with their early-season performance buoyed by an unsustainable performance in one-score games. They’re meaningfully worse on the offensive line, where Jason Kelce is retired and Mekhi Becton and Tyler Steen are already battling injuries, and are relying heavily on young players who haven’t yet broken out to excel on the defensive line.

There are two scenarios for this team. In the positive one, running back Saquon Barkley excels after a massive situation/line improvement, taking some of the pressure off Jalen Hurts. The young draftees (and the return of defensive back C.J. Gardner-Johnson) in the secondary solidify a group that aged rapidly during the second half. Vic Fangio is a major upgrade at defensive coordinator; the pass rush comes together; and a complete Philadelphia team improves its turnover margin and underlying level of play and wins the NFC East comfortably.

The other one doesn’t go quite as well. The two new coordinators fail to make an immediate impact. Oft-injured Barkley lasts only half a season, and the offensive line battles injuries and inconsistent play on the interior all season. Rookies Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean aren’t immediate impact players at cornerback, and the Eagles are behind the curve in running a Fangio defense that seems to have peaked in effectiveness a couple of years ago, leading to lots of long, comfortable drives for opposing offenses.

I fall somewhere between the two, but I lean toward the latter scenario as more likely. In this universe, the Eagles finish 9-8 and just miss out on a wild-card berth.

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ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: -110
Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 41.6%

The Bears are the exact sort of team that usually gets underestimated when we’re projecting the postseason. The most common driver of sudden, dramatic increases in performance is when a team goes from replacement-level quarterback play to average or better work, as the Texans did a year ago in going from Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel to C.J. Stroud. We don’t know whether first overall pick Caleb Williams will be as good as Stroud was during the latter’s spectacular rookie campaign, but he certainly projects to be a much better player than the duo of Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent, who combined to rank 26th in yards per pass dropback a year ago.

New pod! @BillBarnwell, @Foxworth24 and I once again revealed our mild/medium/hot opinions about the upcoming NFL season…

But first, the great @seanseaevans came by to drop a spicy NFL take about his beloved Bears 👇

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— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) September 2, 2024

Even if Williams isn’t up to Stroud’s rookie season, the Bears don’t have to improve as much as the Texans did to get into playoff contention — they finished 7-10 in 2023. That performance was driven by an excellent second half from Matt Eberflus’ defense, which ranked second to the Patriots in points allowed per drive. I’m not sure the defense can sustain the 20.2% turnover rate it posted during that second half over the entirety of the season, but Chicago is heading in the right direction on that side of the ball. It also was 2-5 in games decided by seven or fewer points, which shouldn’t be the case again.

Is it too early for Williams to be projected as a playoff quarterback? Maybe, but team and player growth isn’t as linear as we often think. Stroud was a franchise quarterback by the middle of October. Dak Prescott jump-started the Cowboys from 4-12 to 13-3 in his debut campaign in 2016. Andrew Luck pushed the Colts from 2-14 to 11-5 and a playoff berth in 2012. Robert Griffin, the pick directly after Luck, led Washington to a playoff appearance that same season. If Williams is as good as projected, the Bears need to be on postseason radars immediately.

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ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: +145
Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 33.6%

If you believe there’s a clear favorite in the NFC South, you’re more confident than I am. The Bucs were projected to finish last in the division a year ago, but Todd Bowles & Co. coaxed career seasons out of quarterback Baker Mayfield and safety Antoine Winfield, while young players outside linebacker Yaya Diaby, defensive tackle Calijah Kancey and offensive tackle Luke Goedeke looked like potential building blocks along the line of scrimmage.

In a division in which two of the four teams ranked in the bottom five of the league by DVOA, the Bucs were really competing with the Saints, and the two were roughly similar across their shared opponents. The difference was what they did against the Vikings: Tampa Bay pulled out a 20-17 upset on the road in Week 1, and the Saints lost 27-19 in a game Derek Carr left because of an injury in the third quarter.

I’m not sure there’s a huge gap between the two this season, and with the Falcons upgrading at quarterback by signing Kirk Cousins, there’s a three-team race. (The Falcons ranked 28th in DVOA last season, though, so even an improved version of the team might struggle to make it to nine wins.) Tampa Bay faces a tougher schedule by virtue of finishing in first place, but that was also the case a year ago, and it managed to overcome that burden to win the South for the third consecutive season.

I’d argue the Bucs lost a little more this offseason. They’re replacing starters at every level of their defense in cornerback Carlton Davis, linebacker Devin White and defensive end Shaq Barrett, although White, a 2019 first-round pick and Super Bowl standout, had been benched by the end of the season. Both teams replaced offensive coordinators, but Tampa Bay’s wasn’t by choice, as Dave Canales was poached for the head-coaching job with Carolina. New OC Liam Coen has had success in the college ranks, but he was one-and-done as the coordinator in Los Angeles under Sean McVay.

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ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: +175
Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 29.5%

The Saints, on the other hand, imported some much-needed fresh blood by replacing longtime Sean Payton assistant Pete Carmichael with former Vikings coordinator Klint Kubiak. It’s the first major change to the coaching staff the team has made since Payton’s departure after the 2021 season, and, after Carmichael failed to get the most out of Derek Carr, it’s a shift that needed to be made. Quietly, the offense improved as the season went along, as New Orleans rose from 19th in EPA per play during the first half of 2023 to ninth best by the same metric afterward.

Dennis Allen hasn’t been a popular coach, but his defense is already playing at a playoff level. The Saints ranked seventh in EPA per play last season, and that was with a career-low two sacks from franchise legend Cameron Jordan, who battled an ankle injury for most of the campaign. It remains to be seen whether New Orleans can get more out of new addition Chase Young than the 49ers did during his time in San Francisco, but if the defense can piece together an edge rush from among Jordan, Young and Carl Granderson, the secondary should be able to hold its own.

The Saints went 9-8 with a 10.5-win point differential last season, and that usually augurs improvement. They were 3-6 in games decided by eight or fewer points. And yet, at the same time, this was the league’s oldest team a year ago, and most of that aging core is back for 2024, some because of financial obligations as opposed to their actual level of play. There’s enough here for one more division title, but the bottom could also fall out fast if some of the veterans from the Drew Brees era break down.

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ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: -140
Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 60.4%

Although we’ve paid plenty of attention to the Bills and Cowboys losing talent over the offseason, the Dolphins have sort of flown underneath the radar. The two most expensive non-quarterbacks of free agency were both former Dolphins, as guard Robert Hunt and defensive tackle Christian Wilkins left for big deals in March, while linebacker Jerome Baker was a cap casualty. Center Connor Williams and cornerback Xavien Howard also aren’t back after battling injuries in 2023. Bradley Chubb will start the year on the PUP list after tearing his ACL late last season, while fellow edge rusher Jaelan Phillips will likely be limited early in the year as he returns from a torn Achilles.

Hey, you don’t have to listen to me. Tyreek Hill said this is the best Dolphins team he has been on, and maybe he’s right. Miami added veterans, including defensive lineman Calais Campbell, guard Aaron Brewer and safety Jordan Poyer, to supplement the roster, but after using trades to add players on high-priced contracts such as Hill, Chubb and cornerback Jalen Ramsey in offseasons past and handing Tua Tagovailoa a significant extension, there wasn’t as much wriggle room in the budget this time around.

Mike McDaniel is an offensive genius, and the hope will be that the new coach and his third defensive coordinator in three years (Anthony Weaver) piece together a formula that prevents the Dolphins from slowing down in December and January, when they’ve struggled the past two seasons. They have relied on Hill, Ramsey and offensive tackle Terron Armstead playing at a high level to sustain them at their best, and they should continue to excel when on the field. Owing to injuries and departures, though, I’m just not sure whether Miami has enough around its core of stars to avoid taking a step backward.

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ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: -170
Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 52.9%

The Dolphins likely will feel the heat in the AFC East, where the Patriots and Jets should improve. I’m not sure whether New England has the offensive talent to leap into playoff contention, but if the Jets actually get something close to a full season from Aaron Rodgers, it should propel them into the postseason picture.

Some of the issues I was concerned about with the 2023 Jets team have been resolved, at least on paper. There’s a legitimate left tackle in former Cowboys standout Tyron Smith and depth behind him in first-rounder Olu Fashanu. New York added two more new starters up front and a pair of new receivers to replace old Rodgers favorites, with Mike Williams and Malachi Corley stepping in for Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb. The protracted holdout of trade acquisition Haason Reddick has placed a damper on what was otherwise an excellent offseason for general manager Joe Douglas, but there should be enough in the pass rush to compensate if Reddick doesn’t report.

Are there still question marks? Absolutely. Rodgers has barely played football over the past 12 months, and he wasn’t very good as a 39-year-old with the Packers in 2022. His handpicked offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett, didn’t show much without Rodgers a year ago. Smith and Williams have significant injury histories. The Jets have a lower floor than most of the other teams in this playoff projection; they could win or lose 12 games depending on what we see from Rodgers in what might be the legendary quarterback’s final campaign. I think we will see them get off to a hot start before the injuries catch up in the second half, leaving just enough for them to get into the postseason as a wild card.

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ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: +140
Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 33.5%

The Browns are another team I covered in my column on teams likely to decline. While the defense we saw from 2023 was real and the offense was saddled with five different starting quarterbacks because of injuries and subpar play, the Browns went 6-2 in one-score games and outplayed their point differential by nearly two full victories.

Cleveland fans are obviously hoping the defense retains all of its gains from last year while the offense improves with a full season from Deshaun Watson, who did go 5-1 as the starter. I covered why the 5-1 mark greatly oversells Watson’s impact, as it includes two games in which he struggled mightily and one in which he left in the first quarter because of an injury. We haven’t seen him play well on a snap-by-snap basis since his final season with the Texans in 2020, which was four years ago. Throw in the departure of offensive line coach Bill Callahan, arguably the best positional coach in the game, and I’m not optimistic about the offense taking a step forward.

It’s more likely the defense will decline, given the track record of units that make massive single-season improvements on that side of the ball. The defense won’t be bad, by any means, but if the Browns slip at all on defense, there are going to be a handful of dangerous teams in the AFC waiting to take their wild-card spot.

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ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: -240
Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 72.5%

The Bengals should push for a playoff spot after missing out last season. Even with an injury-riddled season limiting Joe Burrow to a handful of healthy starts, they managed to go 9-8 against a first-place schedule. They were the 11th-best team in football by DVOA, placing Zac Taylor’s squad ahead of five other teams that actually made it into the postseason.

Burrow should be back for something closer to a full season in 2024, and while wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase’s hold-in has lingered into September, there’s little for Chase to gain to continue it into the regular season if his deal doesn’t get done. The line protecting Burrow is as deep on paper as it has been since his arrival, with rookie first-round pick Amarius Mims backing up new right tackle Trent Brown.

The defense should also be improved after restoring veterans at safety, where the team really struggled last season. Re-signing Vonn Bell and adding Geno Stone from the Ravens should allow coordinator Lou Anarumo to be more aggressive with his creative pressures and range of coverage looks, which should address some of the issues the Bengals had in covering opposing passing attacks last season. The young talent Cincinnati has drafted generally hasn’t developed into starting roles, but there should still be enough in the way of veteran skill to keep the defense around league average. With Burrow, that should be enough for a return trip to the postseason.

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ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: +180
Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 29%

Even if you believe the Steelers are incapable of posting a losing record under Mike Tomlin, we’ve seen this team miss the postseason with a .500 or better record as recently as 2022. Nine wins might not be enough for any team to get into the postseason in the AFC in 2024, and unless you’re particularly enthused about Russell Wilson and Justin Fields under center, it’s tough to imagine Pittsburgh having the ceiling to push past 10 wins, given the strength of its division.

Tomlin will need to call on all of his powers here. The Steelers were 9-2 in one-score games last season, a feat even his history suggests his team will struggle to repeat. They were outscored on the season, which we would typically associate with a sub.-500 team. They survived on turnovers and rare big plays from an offense that struggled to move the ball on a consistent basis. They looked — and won — like a team from the 1970s.

The Steelers had the league’s oldest defense in 2023, but the talent they’ve compiled (including a pair of young, budding stars in defensive tackle Keeanu Benton and cornerback Joey Porter Jr.) should keep their floor relatively high. There just isn’t much to be excited about on offense, though, regardless of whether Wilson keeps the quarterback job all season. They have finally invested significant draft picks in upgrading their offensive line, but coordinator Arthur Smith will be operating with a much worse unit than the ones he enjoyed in Tennessee and Atlanta. Unless there’s something lurking in Wilson or Fields we didn’t see in their prior stops, I’m not sure this adds up to a playoff berth.

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ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: +115
Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 44.8%

The Chargers certainly don’t seem like a playoff team right now. They’re coming off an ugly 5-12 season that saw them fall to last place in the AFC West and fire their coach and general manager. They let go of their three top playmakers in running back Austin Ekeler and wideouts Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, and they didn’t really replace them with any sort of notable veteran talent. Their best defensive player, edge rusher Joey Bosa, is already dealing with a broken hand and will start the year with a club to protect the injury.

Look a little closer, though, and things aren’t as bleak. The Chargers had the point differential of a seven-win team and finished 19th in DVOA. Allen was the only one of their three playmakers to play well while staying mostly healthy last season, and even he missed four games. They have made additions, but they just aren’t as sexy: Rookie right tackle Joe Alt has looked like a home run in preseason, giving them the ability to protect franchise quarterback Justin Herbert with what might be one of the best one-two tackle punches in the league.

The biggest addition, though, is at head coach. Jim Harbaugh has a track record of turning teams around quicker than anybody expected. In San Francisco from 2011 to 2014, he took over a team that hadn’t posted a winning record in eight seasons and whose quarterback, Alex Smith, had said he couldn’t envision rejoining the team after hitting free agency. Harbaugh brought back Smith, turned his career around, and took the 49ers to 13-3 and the NFC Championship Game in his first season. After that, he took over a five-win Michigan team in 2015 and immediately doubled its win total in his return to Ann Arbor.

I would be skeptical of Harbaugh taking the Chargers on a deep playoff run in his first season, especially with the Chiefs in the same division, but this is the sort of formula we typically don’t see coming until it’s too late. A team that wasn’t as bad as it seemed last season stops being quite as unlucky. A major addition at one of the few positions that really moves the needle changes its fortunes and makes multiple players look better. The Chargers already have standouts at several of the most important positions in football in Herbert, Alt, Bosa, offensive tackle Rashawn Slater and pass rusher Khalil Mack. Adding Harbaugh doesn’t complete the set, but it should make them 2024’s most surprising playoff team.

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ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: -200
Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 64.6%

The most surprising playoff team of 2023, though, might not be back. There’s everything to like about what general manager Nick Caserio has built with his young core of quarterback C.J. Stroud and wideouts Nico Collins and Tank Dell on offense, while edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. and cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. look like building blocks on defense. Those guys should continue to improve, and that’s going to keep Houston competitive for years to come.

Around that core? I’m not quite as enthused. Unlike the Lions and Packers, who were two of the youngest teams in football a year ago as they broke into the postseason, the Texans were the fourth-oldest team in the league on a snap-weighted basis. Those young core members aren’t the issue here, but Caserio chose to rebuild this team by investing heavily in veterans on short-term deals who could do a professional job at their respective positions. That philosophy helped them grow quickly once they drafted their stars, but it might cap their ceiling given those veterans’ relative lack of upside. The Chargers will be even older in spots this season as edge rusher Danielle Hunter replaces Jonathan Greenard, while running back Joe Mixon steps in for the departed Devin Singletary.

The Texans also added 30-year-old Stefon Diggs to the mix, and although he was a transcendent wide receiver at his best for the Bills, his numbers declined noticeably during the second half of last season, leading Buffalo to trade him away for a second-round pick. The Texans removed the rest of Diggs’ contract to keep him motivated for a single season in 2024, but that in itself seems telling about where he stands heading into the year. There are more reasons to think he will disappoint in 2024 than live up to his peak seasons.

The other issue is that Houston was more good than great last season. It went 10-7, but that was buoyed by going 7-3 in one-score games. Stroud & Co. posted the league’s fewest turnovers, and while I have no doubt he is a very accurate quarterback, he just posted the 14th-best interception rate for a single season in NFL history as a rookie. The Texans finished 12th in DVOA and 18th in ESPN’s FPI while facing the league’s third-easiest schedule.

This season, after winning the AFC South, they’re projected by the FPI to face the fourth-toughest schedule in the league. It’s worth remembering the Jaguars, who were seemingly locked in as the repeat division champs this time last year, were 8-3 after beating the Texans in Week 12 and in position to take over the top spot in the AFC, only to lose to a Joe Burrow-less Bengals team and have Trevor Lawrence get hurt in the process. Lawrence wasn’t healthy the rest of the way, and Jacksonville won just one of its final six games to fall out of the playoff picture. This season, in a close battle, I have those Jaguars coming out narrowly on top.

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ESPN BET’s line to make playoffs: +130
Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN’s FPI: 37.5%

It seems a little as if the Jaguars have been out of sight and out of mind since the Lawrence injury. Given that they went 14-4 between their bye week in 2022 and that rematch against the Texans in 2023, I’d argue that’s a little premature. Last season was frustrating for the Jaguars even before the disastrous collapse that ended their season, when they struggled to catch passes, stay inbounds or avoid sloppy football in key moments.

Some of the changes the team made this offseason might help. Wideout Calvin Ridley never seemed to find the right spot within the offense, and swapping him and Zay Jones for Gabe Davis and first-round pick Brian Thomas Jr. should create more defined roles for Lawrence’s receivers. The addition of center Mitch Morse, who has been excellent for years with the Bills, should help sort out some of the woes the Jags have had on the interior of their offensive line.

Josh Hines-Allen had a career year on the edge in 2023, and 2022 No. 1 pick Travon Walker took major strides in his second campaign, jumping from 3.5 sacks to 10. The Jaguars spent big on former 49ers tackle Arik Armstead in March, but their biggest addition might have been hiring defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen, who did excellent work in his lone season coordinating the Falcons in 2023.

The Jags were the trendy team in the AFC South last season. The Texans are in that role in 2024. I’m not dismissing the Texans, but if this division lands only one playoff spot, the difference might come through strength of schedule. Jacksonville faces the 13th-easiest slate of opponents, while Houston comes in at fourth-hardest. That’s not a huge gap, but in a close heat between two teams, it might be enough to push the South back to the Jags.

A Super Bowl LIX pick

And just for fun, I’ll throw in a Super Bowl selection. The good news is we’re riding a winning streak here, as the Chiefs have been my pick in each of the past two seasons. The bad news is my pick to oppose them in Super Bowl LVIII was the Cowboys, and that didn’t work out so well.

As you might suspect, if I think the Chiefs are capable of winning 15-plus games during the regular season, I have high hopes for their playoff chances, too. I have them coming out of the AFC. The NFC is a tougher ballot, but it’s hard for me to ignore what I saw out of the Packers during the second half of last season. Given their youth and talent throughout the roster, I have them toppling the Lions and finally overcoming the 49ers in the postseason to advance to the Super Bowl.

When the Packers get there, though? I can’t start picking against Kansas City now. Three-peats are unprecedented, but so is Patrick Mahomes. Chiefs 34, Packers 20.