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What bettors and polls say about 2024

As the home stretch of the 2024 U.S. presidential election begins, foreign betting markets have put former President Donald Trump in a position after Labor Day that he has never enjoyed: a lead.

Trump, the Republican candidate, has a narrow lead over Democratic vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris on two of the biggest betting markets: Betfair Exchange, the UK's largest peer-to-peer betting platform, and Polymarket, a crypto trading platform.

Betting on the presidential election – which is not legally possible in the US – contradicts the latest poll results among the US electorate:

◾ A new poll from USA TODAY/Suffolkgives Harris a 48% to 43% lead, well within the poll's margin of error. The survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted by landline and cellphone from August 25 to 28 – about a week after the Democratic National Convention.

◾ Real Clear Politics poll average Harris has been ahead of Trump by a few points since the party's convention in August. Trump had a nearly three-point lead over President Joe Biden before Biden dropped out of the race.

Poll averages for 2024 give Harris a slight lead in recent weeks

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Do bettors or voters give the best signals?

How do you reconcile the conflicting signals from the gambling markets and the voter polls?

Harry Crane, a statistics professor at Rutgers University, has been studying election results since 2016 and comparing them with the predictions of opinion polls and betting markets. He points out: “The market price at a given point in time reflects the collective opinion of the market, based on the information available.”

And aside from verbal jabs from their campaigns, there is little information to compare Trump and Harris. Bettors may eye September 10, Harris' first 2024 presidential debate, as the next best opportunity to reconsider their bets.

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It's not just gamers who are interested in next week's debate. According to a recent survey by online polling platform Prolific, 70 out of 10 respondents said they would watch. Younger and black voters showed the greatest interest.

This is how the betting odds for Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 presidential election have changed

The odds of Trump becoming president this year peaked on the first day of the Republican National Convention, according to data from Betfair and Polymarket. Last week, bettors also gave him a slight lead over Harris. It's the first time since Labor Day that bettors have given Trump a lead over a rival in an election year.

According to nonprofit news organization The Conversation, the betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866. One of those underdogs was Trump in 2016. Even on Election Day, bettors gave Trump only a 17 percent chance of defeating Hillary Clinton, according to Betfair's historical data.

How Harris and Trump's chances of winning the 2024 presidential election have changed

The odds for the 2024 election are sure to change in the two months leading up to Election Day on November 5, considering Betfair has already taken $78 million in bets. Still, that's only a fraction of the record $2.23 billion wagered on Betfair during the 2020 election.

So what has increased Harris and Trump’s lead in recent days?

In five of the last 19 days, the gap between Trump and Harris was two percentage points or less, but in the last three days the gap has widened slightly on Polymarket.

Bettors may see Harris' narrow lead nationally, but they're more likely to focus on reports like those from the Silver Bulletin, where Nate Silver puts Trump's chance of winning the Electoral College at 56%.

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