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National Hurricane Center tracks five disturbances

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The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring five tropical disturbances in the Atlantic, the agency said in an alert updated Thursday afternoon.

There has been a surprising lull in hurricane activity in the Atlantic in recent weeks, and the numerous disturbances but no active storms remain unusual.

“As far as I can remember, this was the first time we had no active named storms, but at the same time had five systems monitored by the NHC, all of which were rated as unlikely,” said Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane forecaster at Colorado State University.

Where are the predicted hurricanes? Experts fear that there will be more such cases.

According to Klotzbach, the five disturbances show how difficult it is to organize storms at the moment: “I think this shows how borderline the conditions are at the moment,” he said.

According to Klotzbach, there have been no named storms in the Atlantic since Ernesto on August 12. Only once since 1966 has there ever been a named storm in the Atlantic between August 13 and September 3. The other year was 1968, when only 8 named storms formed in total.

“This exceptionally quiet period is particularly notable as it coincides with the time of year when the Atlantic is climatologically very busy,” Klotzbach wrote in an online weather forecast update published on September 3.

5 waves … but no storms

The tropical disturbances currently being observed are anything but tropical storms. They are merely tropical waves – elongated areas of relatively low pressure that move from east to west across the tropics. To the west of the system, the weather is often fair. To the east, however, it is often cloudy and rainy.

According to NOAA, tropical waves can lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone. These include tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.

From a meteorological perspective, this means: “We are approaching the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. So there are areas where these hurricanes form, but right now the vertical wind shear is quite high in most parts of the basin.”

Wind shears tear apart developing storms and hurricanes before they can organize.

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Storm tracker for the Atlantic

NHC tracks 5 tropical waves in the Atlantic

The first system is currently causing widespread rain showers and thunderstorms in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, including near the coast of Louisiana and Texas, the NHC said Thursday morning.

The hurricane center said upper-level winds will be “less conducive to development” through Friday and Saturday as a frontal boundary approaches the system. Although development is unlikely, heavy rains are expected in parts of the northern Gulf Coast over the next few days, the NHC said.

The National Weather Service in New Orleans said a flood warning was in effect for parts of southeast Louisiana and the Mississippi Gulf Coast until Friday evening. Between 7.5 and 12.5 centimeters of rain were possible by Saturday, but locally higher amounts “cannot be ruled out.”

The second wave is currently described by the NHC as a “non-tropical low pressure area” and is located a few hundred miles east of North Carolina.

The system is producing “limited showers and thunderstorm activity” and could assume “tropical or subtropical characteristics” over the next few days as it moves north-northeastward and remains off the coast of the northeast coast of the United States, the NHC said.

“Once the low pressure system moves over cooler waters by Saturday evening, no further subtropical development is expected,” the NHC said in its warning. The probability of its formation in the next seven days is 30 percent.

The third wave is currently producing showers and thunderstorms over the eastern tropical Atlantic, and slow development is possible over the next few days as it moves northwest or north, the NHC said. There is a 20 percent chance that this wave will develop over the next seven days.

The fourth wave is currently moving rapidly westward across the western Caribbean at about 32 km/h and continues to cause a “wide area of ​​disorganized showers and thunderstorms,” ​​the NHC said.

Some development is possible in a few days after the system crosses Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and moves over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The NHC gives this wave a 20 percent chance of forming in the next seven days.

The fifth and final wave is currently located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Strong winds will limit the development of this system on its west-northwest side over the next few days, the NHC said.

However, early next week, environmental conditions may become more favorable for slow development as the system moves northwestward across the southwestern Atlantic. The NHC gives this system a 10 percent chance of formation in the next seven days.

Where are the hurricanes?

Despite widespread warm waters throughout the basin, too much dry air, dust from the Sahara and disruptive winds have hampered tropical development, AccuWeather said. “We're also monitoring a large pocket of cold water off the west coast of Africa,” AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said, adding that it's disrupting the showers and thunderstorms that normally develop into tropical storms and hurricanes.

So far this year there have been more storms in the Pacific than in the Atlantic, and that's a bit of a surprise, according to meteorologists.

Some weather services, including AccuWeather, are revising their predictions of an exceptionally active hurricane season. AccuWeather had predicted that up to 25 storms would form, but has lowered that number to 16-20, which is still above the average of 14.

For the immediate future, Klotzbach's team predicts below-average activity over the next few weeks as large-scale weather factors continue to help reduce storm activity.

The Atlantic hurricane season lasts until November 30th.

Gabe Hauari is a national trending news reporter for USA TODAY. You can follow him on X. @GabeHauari or email him at [email protected].

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