By-election in Quebec threatens race between CAQ and PQ

The four elected members of the Parti Québécois (PQ) did not hesitate: a few hours after the resignation of CAQ super-minister Pierre Fitzgibbon, they boarded what looked like a campaign bus on Thursday and drove to the now vacant constituency of Terrebonne to hold a rally there.

The signal is clear: PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon wants to win back this former PQ stronghold.

However, the battle is far from won, as the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) will not miss out on the constituency on Montreal's north shore.

Philippe J. Fournier, founder of poll aggregator Qc125, said that if the PQ does not win Terrebonne, it cannot win the parliamentary elections.

“There is no scenario in which the PQ wins the most seats – not even a minority – and Terrebonne is not one of those scenarios,” he said in an interview with The Canadian Press.

This is because Terrebonne was a PQ stronghold for several decades, unlike Jean-Talon, which was never part of the PQ before Pascal Paradis' surprise victory last October.

A former PQ stronghold

Between 1976 and 2018, the PQ Terrebonne lost only once, to Mario Dumont's Action Démocratique du Québec in 2007.

However, the ADQ's rule was short-lived, as the PQ recaptured the constituency in 2008.

In 2018, the CAQ won its first majority mandate and Pierre Fitzgibbon won the constituency from outgoing PQ MP Mathieu Traversy. The man who would become the Legault government's super-minister of economy, innovation and energy retained the constituency in 2022 with 49 percent of the vote.

The PQ share was only 19 percent.

The pressure on the CAQ is therefore also very high in the next constituency.

“If the CAQ starts losing constituencies that it won by 30 percent, it won't look good,” said Fournier.

The significance of the 450

According to the Qc125 founder, the suburbs around Montreal will be crucial in the next provincial election: “If you don't win the 450, you won't be close to power. (…) Is the PQ really back in the suburbs of Montreal? That will be a good test,” he said.

His poll aggregator currently places Terrebonne in the category of likely wins for the PQ, but Fournier says: “The margin of error is large if you don't have local polls.”

Recent polls show the PQ leading in terms of voting intentions across the province, with the CAQ in second place. The two political parties attract the most French-speaking voters, and Terrebonne has a very high percentage (93 percent) of people whose “most commonly spoken language at home” is French, according to Elections Québec.

The fight between the PQ and the CAQ in Terrebonne is therefore likely to be tough, especially since the two political parties communicate with each other regarding votes.

The other political parties (the Liberal Party of Quebec, Quebec Solidaire and the Conservative Party of Éric Duhaime) are currently not really competitive, according to Qc125.

After a member of parliament leaves office, the government has six months to call a by-election. The estimated cost of such an election is $725,000. No party has yet put forward a candidate.

The Terrebonne electoral district was created in 1929 and is located in the Lanaudière region.

“The place name refers to the name of the lordship of Terrebonne or Terbonne, which was given to André Daulier Deslandes (…) in 1673. The name of his lordship is said to have been given because of the fertility of the land,” says the website of the Quebec Electoral Office.

Terrebonne in numbers

• Population: 80,607
• Number of registered voters: 60,184
• Area: 86.61 km2
• Median income for households with two or fewer people: $127,800
• Source: Élections Québec

This report by The Canadian Press was first published in French on September 7, 2024.