Fantasy playbook: NFL Week 1 scores, projections, matchups

Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 1, which kicked off Thursday with the Ravens at the Chiefs.

This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.

(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)

Projected Score: Falcons 22, Steelers 20

Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, George Pickens, Drake London, Kyle Pitts

Last season, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren formed a true backfield committee, with Harris taking the lead as a rusher and at the goal line and Warren handling most passing-down work. Harris finished with 195.5 fantasy points (RB23), and Warren was just ahead with 196.4 (RB22). We should expect similar usage in 2024, though with perhaps more volume due to run-heavy Arthur Smith calling the offense. Both backs are flex options against a solid Atlanta front.

Over/Under: 42.1 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Falcons 58% (12th highest)

Projected Score: Bills 28, Cardinals 21

Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, James Cook, James Conner, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride, Dalton Kincaid

Week 1 will give us our first look at an overhauled Buffalo WR room that will sub in Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel for offseason departures Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. The priority order is unclear, but this unit — which also includes Khalil Shakir — is in a good spot against one of the league’s shakiest/most unproven CB rooms. Coleman’s draft pedigree (second-round rookie) and playmaking ability suggest he’s the best flex flier.

Over/Under: 48.9 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Bills 76% (2nd highest)

Projected Score: Bears 24, Titans 19

Lineup locks: Calvin Ridley, DJ Moore

This game is overloaded with borderline flex options and there’s added risk since all of them are either on a new team, operating in a new scheme and/or working with a new quarterback. At RB, D’Andre Swift is your best choice as he’s expected to lead the Chicago backfield, though note that the Jeffery Simmons-led Titans defense has allowed the fewest RB fantasy points over the past three seasons. The Tony Pollard/Tyjae Spears split is yet to be determined, leaving both as risky flex plays. It’s a similar story at wide receiver, with Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze making their Chicago debuts against one of the league’s best CB rooms. (It will help them if L’Jarius Sneed shadows Moore.) DeAndre Hopkins has added risk as he could be limited due to a knee injury that he suffered in July.

Over/Under: 43.0 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Bears 65% (6th highest)

Projected Score: Bengals 27, Patriots 18

Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Rhamondre Stevenson, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins

Zack Moss is listed as the Bengals’ lead back, but Chase Brown opened the preseason with the starters, so a full-on committee is likely. Similar to the split we saw in Pittsburgh last season, we can expect Moss to hold an edge in carries and at the goal line, with Brown manning most passing-down work. In what is a very pass-heavy offense, that gives Brown a slight edge in the ranks, although neither is an appealing flex.

Over/Under: 44.2 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Bengals 80% (Highest)

Projected Score: Texans 25, Colts 24